Week 50 2020

Attendance in education and early years settings during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic

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  1. Last week the average (median) number of pupils isolating, per confirmed pupil COVID-19 case within state-funded schools was reported as ‘23’ pupils but should have said ’28 pupils’. This has been corrected in last week's publication and is noted here for transparency.

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Introduction

A summary of attendance in education settings from Monday 23 March to Thursday 10 December (excluding out of term dates as data not collected) and early years settings from Thursday 16 April to Thursday 10 December. The data covers England only. 

This publication provides a high-level national summary of estimates from the Department for Education's education settings survey and local authority early years survey. 

These statistics have been produced quickly in response to developing world events. The Office for Statistics Regulation, on behalf of the UK Statistics Authority, has reviewed them (opens in a new tab) against several key aspects of the Code of Practice for Statistics and regards them as consistent with the Code’s pillars of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value.

Expansion of publication content in January 2021

Local authority level data from the education settings survey are included in this publication for the first time. 

We are working to expand the scope of published data in future releases. In addition to measures currently published, from 19 January 2021 we will publish workforce absence data backdated for the autumn term and update this weekly.

We will also publish local authority level measures of workforce absence and early years data for the autumn term on 19 January 2021. We will then publish local authority level summaries on a half-termly basis. 

The publication previously pre-announced for 22nd December has been cancelled. The next publication will be 12 January 2021 and data for 11 to 18 December will be included in this publication to ensure a consistent – full – timeseries is available, including the end of the autumn term. This will enable a fuller explanation of attendance trends which are complicated by schools starting their Christmas break or having INSET days by Thursday 17 December.

Data sharing

Data collected from the Education Settings Survey is shared as management information across national and local government for operational purposes. As part of the data share we explicitly highlight that the information is for internal purposes only and should not be shared more widely. The limitations of the data, which include variables with missing values, responses not being validated or issues being thoroughly investigated are highlighted to ensure recipients are aware that decisions should not be made in isolation and the risks of making conclusions based on the data alone. We engage with local users to try to prevent the data being shared inappropriately. Where we identify misuse of the data we work with those in receipt of the data to understand how it happened and to reduce the likelihood it will happen again.

Information shared across government includes variables that we have made a conscious decision not to share more widely at the present moment for a number of reasons including the quality of the data which could misinform or confuse users, however, they may provide useful insight for operational purposes, particularly at a local level.

The department is continuously reviewing what and how information collected from the survey is disseminated and we will endeavour to publish data at the earliest opportunity.

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Methodologies

Headline facts and figures - 2020

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Background

Between March 2020 and the end of the summer term, schools were asked to limit attendance to reduce transmission of coronavirus (COVID-19). The timeline is summarised below:

  • From Friday 20 March 2020, in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, the government asked early years settings, schools, and colleges to close to all children except those of critical workers and those classified as vulnerable.
  • From 1 June, the government asked schools to welcome back children in nursery, reception, year 1 and year 6, alongside children of critical workers and vulnerable children from all years. Early years settings were also asked to begin welcoming back all children from 1 June.
  • From 15 June, secondary schools, sixth form and further education colleges were asked to begin providing face-to-face support to students in year 10 and 12 to supplement their learning from home, alongside full time provision for students from priority groups. Primary schools were given the flexibility to bring back pupils in other year groups, where they have space to do so.
  • By 17 July, most schools and colleges had closed for the summer holiday. Ordinarily, fewer early years settings are open and fewer children are in attendance during school summer holidays. This is due to reduced demand for childcare and the closure of term-time only and school-based settings.
  • From the beginning of the autumn term in the 2020/21 academic year, all pupils, in all year groups, were expected to return to school full-time.

Education settings survey

To help understand the impact of these decisions, the Department for Education (DfE) established a survey of schools and colleges in England. Schools and colleges are asked to report information to DfE each day.

The education settings survey was open between 23 March and 17 July 2020 and then reopened on 1 September 2020. The survey questions were changed on 1 September 2020 to reflect the expectation that all schools should prepare to open to all pupils. Additional changes to questions were made on 12 October 2020, detailed information on these amendments can be found in the methodology.

Local authority early years survey

To help understand the impact of these decisions, from 6 April 2020, the Department of Education (DfE) asked local authorities (LAs) to regularly report to the DfE information on the number of children in attendance, including the number of settings open or closed. The focus of this survey was narrowed to early years settings from 16 April. 

The early years local authority survey continues on a weekly basis. Ordinarily, fewer early years settings are open and fewer children are in attendance during school summer holidays. This is due to reduced demand for childcare and the closure of term-time only and school-based settings. Some children returned to early years settings on week commencing 31 August, with many more returning on week commencing 7 September.

The volume and percentage of children in attendance from 10 September is not directly comparable with the previous data points due to a break in the time series. The number of three-year-olds eligible for funded childcare, and therefore attending early years settings, increases through the academic year. Attendance in settings decreases in the autumn when children move to reception. For more details on the break in the time series, please see the methodology section. 

Data coverage

This data release includes data from the education settings survey from 23 March to 10 December (excluding out of term dates as data not collected) and early years settings from 16 April to 10 December. 

The narrative in this document focuses on Thursday 10 December to maintain comparability with previous weeks. Data from Wednesday 9 September is included in the underlying data because this was the first time fewer than 1% of schools reported inset days since the survey reopened on Tuesday 1 September.

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Non-response adjustment

Education settings survey

Non-response adjustments made to published figures from 9 September 2020 are summarised here. For the non-response adjustment methodology made to published figures from 23 March to 16 July 2020, see the July 21 publication. Non-response adjustments have not been made to local authority level data, see the ‘Attendance by local authority’ section for more information.

The response rate among state-funded schools was 80% on 10 December. Open rate and attendance figures for state-funded schools in this release are adjusted to account for those that did not respond to the survey.

The methodology used from 9 September assumes that state-funded schools that did not respond were no more likely to be closed, ask pupils to self-isolate or have lower attendance than responding state-funded schools. This follows analysis of response patterns, data collected from a sample of non-responding schools, and comparison with data collected through regular phone calls between DfE and local authorities to identify any closed schools. Responses have been weighted to take account of differences in response rate between different school types.

To reflect the number of local authorities that were on half-term, adjustments were made to the methodology for figures between 19 -  23 October  and 2 November.

See the methodology section for further detail.

Local authority early years survey

For the local authority early years survey, figures for the number of settings open and closed and the number of children attending for those LAs which did not respond are estimated based on the proportions reported by LAs which did respond. The national estimate comprises reported figures from LAs which did respond combined with these estimates (see the methodology section). From 1 June onwards, this methodology has been revised to take into account the wider opening of early years settings.

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Open status for state-funded schools

  • 17,300 state-funded schools [4] responded to the survey on 10 December. This represents 80% of all state-funded schools. All figures in this release are adjusted for non-response, more information can be found in the Methodology section of this release.
  • 99.2% of state-funded schools were open on 10 December, slightly down from 99.5% on 3 December. Of the small proportion (0.8%) of schools that were closed, almost all were due to COVID-19 related reasons.
  • Due to changes to the education settings survey to collect better data on pupils being asked to self-isolate, we do not have comparable figures to previous data on schools ‘not fully open’. [5]

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[4] All figures are for state-funded schools. State-funded schools are primary, secondary, special schools and alternative provision. Further education colleges, post-16 special institutions and independent schools are not included in these figures, however estimates for these settings are included in the ‘Open status and attendance by type of school or college’ section of this publication.

[5]  Prior to 12 October, the Education Settings Survey asked schools and colleges to report if they were ‘fully open’ or ‘not fully open’ to identify those affected by COVID-19. In looking to balance the reporting burden, only those settings that self-identified as ‘not fully open’ due to asking pupils to self-isolate due to COVID-19 were asked to provide details on confirmed and suspected COVID-19 cases among pupils and on pupils isolating. The question on pupils isolating was framed in terms of ‘groups’ of pupils isolating, with scope for interpretation on what this constituted.

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Attendance in state-funded schools

The overall absence rate in state-funded primary, secondary and special schools in England in the 2018/19 academic year was 4.7%. There are some differences in the calculation of this figure and our attendance estimates that affect comparability [6].

Department for Education guidance (opens in a new tab) sets out that school attendance is mandatory from the beginning of the autumn term. Pupils with COVID-19 symptoms, or who have someone in their household who does, should not attend school. If someone who has attended school is tested positive for COVID-19, pupils they have been in close contact with will be asked to self-isolate. 

  • Approximately 85% of pupils on roll in state-funded schools were in attendance on 10 December, down from 86% on 3 December.
  • Attendance in state-funded primary schools is approximately 89%, down from 90% on 3 December, and attendance in state-funded secondary schools is approximately 80%, down from 81% on 3 December.

We now collect more comprehensive data on pupils being asked to self-isolate, or with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19.  We do not have comparable data for dates prior to 12 October. 

  • This data is as reported directly by schools via DfE's daily education settings survey. It is not the primary source of data on infection, incidence and COVID-19 cases overall. Further detail can be found within the coronavirus in the UK dashboard (opens in a new tab), national COVID-19 surveillance reports (opens in a new tab) and coronavirus infection survey pilot statistics. (opens in a new tab)
  • We estimate up to 694,000 pupils (between 7%-9%) in state-funded schools did not attend school for COVID-19 related reasons on Thursday 10 December [7]. This includes:
    • 17,000 (0.2%) pupils with a confirmed case of coronavirus
    • 30,000 (0.4%) pupils with a suspected case of coronavirus
    • up to 594,000  (6.6-7.3%) pupils self-isolating due to potential contact with a case of coronavirus [7], [8]
    • 53,000 (0.6%) pupils in schools closed for COVID-19 related reasons
  • On Thursday 10 December, approximately 28% of state-funded schools said they had one or more pupils self-isolating who had been asked to do so due to potential contact with a case of coronavirus inside the school, the same as 3 December. This is 60% of state-funded secondaries (down from 63% on 3 December) and 21% of state-funded primaries (down from 22% on 3 December). Note that the vast majority of these schools remain open to most pupils and this is not comparable to previous data on schools 'not fully open' which intended to capture schools with 'a group' of pupils asked to self-isolate. See the methodology for further detail.
  • Most groups asked to self-isolate are relatively small, the average (median) was approximately 14 to 15% of the total number on roll in state-funded primaries (same as last week) and 7 to 8% in state-funded secondaries (up from 6 to 7% last week). On average these proportions equate to the size of a year group in primary schools and just under half a year group in secondary schools.
  • The average (median) number of pupils isolating, per confirmed pupil COVID-19 case within state-funded schools has increased slightly from 28 pupils on 3 December to 29 pupils on 10 December.
    Correction:  Last week this measure was reported as ‘23’ pupils but should have said ’28 pupils’. This has been corrected in last week's publication and is noted here for transparency.
    • State-funded secondaries have an average of 24 pupils isolating per confirmed COVID-19 case on 10 December, up slightly from 23 pupils on 3 December.
    • State-funded primaries have an average of 30 pupils isolating per case of COVID-19 on 10 December, the same as last week.  This analysis only includes schools that have reported at least one confirmed COVID-19 case within pupils.

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[6] 2018/19 overall absence rates include pupils aged 5-15 in state-funded primary, secondary and special schools. Our attendance estimates include 4-year olds in reception, 16-year olds in year 11 and all students in sixth forms. Pupils on roll in alternative provision (who have a higher than average absence rate) are included in our attendance estimates, but excluded from the 2018/19 overall absence rates. From 12 October, schools were asked to exclude nursery children from their response to the education settings survey. See methodology for further details.

[7] Where COVID-19 related pupil absence categories are combined - for example to report the total proportion of pupils absent due to COVID-19 or the proportion self-isolating that are not a confirmed/suspected case - the proportion is reported as a range to account for possible double counting. Numbers of pupils are presented as ‘up to’ the upper bound of the range. Settings are asked to not count pupils in multiple categories, however analysis of responses found evidence of double counting. See ‘Comparability of attendance estimates and typical absence rates’  section of methodology for further details. 

[8] Includes pupils self-isolating due to potential contact with a case of coronavirus inside and outside the school.

Vulnerable children in state-funded schools

Attendance of pupils with an EHCP and pupils with a social worker is ordinarily lower than other pupils [9].

  • Approximately 80% of all pupils with an EHCP on roll in all state-funded schools were in attendance on 10 December, similar to 80% on 3 December.
  • Approximately 80% of all pupils with a social worker on roll in all state-funded schools were in attendance on 3 December, similar to 80% on 3 December. Pupils with a social worker are considered ‘children in need’. Our analysis after adjusting for non-response suggests that schools may be under-reporting the number of children with a social worker when compared to the most recently published children in need statistics [10]. Therefore these estimates only account for pupils with a social worker that are identified by schools.

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[9]  The attendance of pupils with EHCPs and children in need is typically lower than for other pupils. In the 2018/19 academic year, the overall absence rate was 8.7% for pupils with a statement of SEN or an EHCP and 11.4% for children in need see Pupil absence in schools statistics and characteristics of children in need statistics  (opens in a new tab) publication for more information. There are some differences in the calculation of these figures and our estimates that affect comparability.  See our methodology for more details.  

[10] Statistics: children in need and child protection (opens in a new tab)Schools report on the form how many children with a social worker (SW) they have on roll. Our analysis suggests that the total number of children with a SW differs by at least 30% compared to published figures for children with a social worker.

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Open status and attendance by type of school or college

Response rate varies between school or college types, therefore some are more sensitive to the non-response methodology than others. Response rates were lower among some setting types, which means there is greater uncertainty around their estimates.

  • Attendance was lower in state-funded secondaries (80%) than state-funded primaries (89%).
  • Fewer pupils were in attendance at state-funded special schools (77%) than state-funded primary and secondary schools. Ordinarily, attendance is lower in special schools than in mainstream settings.
  • Typically attendance in alternative provision is lower than for other settings. Our attendance in alternative provision estimates may be depressed due to alternative provision reporting dual-registered pupils as on roll. Pupils dual-registered with a mainstream setting are not required to attend alternative provision full-time.

Table 1: Response rate and estimates of % open,  and % attendance by school or college type on 10 December.

Setting type% response rate% open  [11]          % attendance [12] 
State-funded primary 80%99.3%89%
State-funded secondary79%99.0%80%
State-funded special 79%99%77%
State-funded alternative provision69%98%56%
All state-funded schools 80%99.2%85%
Independent schools 47%97%85%
Special post-16 institutions74%94% -
FE colleges 93%99% -

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[11] Open rates are rounded to 1dp for state-funded primary, state-funded secondary and all state-funded schools. For other phases, rates are reported to 0dp and where 100% of settings report they are open, this is reported as 99% given level of uncertainty around these estimates due to lower response rates and/or small population sizes.

[12] Attendance rates are not yet reported for FE colleges or special post-16 institutions as we develop a methodology to account for the fact that some learners attend part-time.

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Attendance by local authority

Available data at local authority level

Data is available for each Thursday from 10 September to 10 December, note that some schools were on half term on Thursday 20 October and most were on half term on Thursday 29 October. 

The following measures can be found in the underlying data at local authority level for all state-funded schools and broken down by primary, secondary and special schools:

  • Number and proportion of schools that were open
  • Number and proportion of schools that asked one or more pupils to self-isolate due to suspected contact with a case of coronavirus (COVID-19) inside the school - from 12 October
  • Number and proportion of all pupils on roll in attendance
  • Number and proportion of pupils on roll with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) in attendance
  • Number and proportion of pupils on roll with a social worker in attendance
  • Number and proportion of pupils absent with a confirmed case of coronavirus (COVID-19) - from 12 October
  • Number and proportion of pupils absent with a suspected case of coronavirus (COVID-19) - from 12 October
  • Number and proportion of pupils absent because of self-isolation due to suspected contact with a case of coronavirus (COVID-19) - from 12 October
  • Number and proportion of pupils absent because their school is closed due to coronavirus (COVID-19) - from 12 October
  • Total number and proportion of pupils reported absent for COVID-19 related reasons - from 12 October

From 12 October, the education settings survey changed and therefore some measures that used to be presented were discontinued. Measures relating to fully open schools are also available in the underlying data prior to 12 October.

The number and proportion of i) pupils absent because of self-isolation due to suspected contact with a case of coronavirus and ii) pupils reported absent for COVID-19 related reasons are presented as a range with an upper and lower bound.

Early years and school workforce data for the autumn term will be published at local authority level in the new year. Local authority level data will then be updated on a half-termly basis.

Interpretation of local authority level data

Local authority level data is based on responding schools only. 

  • Unlike national level data, no adjustments are made for non-response. 
  • Response rates vary by local authority and by school phase or type within local authorities. Different schools within a local authority may respond on different days. Care should therefore be taken when comparing local authorities and when interpreting trends over time because differences could be due to response bias - where responding schools are not representative of all schools - and/or different schools being included in the data. 
  • Where there are differences in response rates between school phase or type, such as a higher response rate in primary schools than secondary schools, data by school phase or type is likely to be more reliable than overall data for all state-funded schools. 
  • Percentages will be more robust than overall numbers of schools or children as these have not been scaled up.
  • Local authorities with response rates below 50% are flagged as such in the underlying data.

Some data is based on fewer schools than others, making it more sensitive to change. 

  • The number of state-funded schools varies considerably by local authority: from 22 in Rutland to over 600 in Lancashire, excluding City of London and Isles of Scilly which have one each. Data based on a small numbers of schools, particularly when comparing over time, can be more variable. 
  • Data based on one school has been suppressed and data based on fewer than 10 schools are flagged as such in the underlying data.

Typically, attendance is higher in some local authorities than others. 

  • Differences in attendance between local areas before the coronavirus outbreak should be taken into account when comparing local authorities. 
  • Pupil absence in the 2019 autumn term is published by local authority and shows that absence ranged from 2.9 to 6.5% at local authority level. There are some differences in the calculation of pupil absence and our attendance estimates that affect comparability [13].

[13] 2018/19 overall absence rates include pupils aged 5-15 in state-funded primary, secondary and special schools. Our attendance estimates include 4-year olds in reception, 16-year olds in year 11 and all students in sixth forms. Pupils on roll in alternative provision (who have a higher than average absence rate) are included in our attendance estimates, but excluded from the 2018/19 overall absence rates. From 12 October, schools were asked to exclude nursery children from their response to the education settings survey. See methodology for further details.

Summary of attendance by local area

Chart 3 summarises attendance in each region during the autumn term (from early September to mid December). Local authority level underlying data can be aggregated to regional level, however the underlying data to Chart 3 is available in the ‘download associated files’ section at the top of this publication for ease.

  • In all regions, attendance gradually increased or remained relatively stable from the beginning of September until half term in late October. After half term, attendance decreased in all regions, before recovering in late November and December, but not to levels of attendance seen in October.
  • Attendance was highest in the South West, South East and East of England throughout most of the autumn term. However, in recent weeks, attendance in the South East and East of England has fallen.
  • From mid-September until half term, attendance was lowest in the North West, hovering around 85% during this time. After half term, attendance was lowest in the North East, West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber, where attendance approached or fell below 80% in mid-November. In early December, attendance was lowest in London and the South East.

Chart 4 shows attendance in state primaries and secondaries, respectively, on 10 December. Data prior to 10 December is available in the underlying data.

  • Areas with low attendance are generally local authorities with high rates of COVID-19 in the population at that time and vice versa.
  • Data for Dorset and Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole are not displayed on the chart due to technical issues that we are working to resolve. Data for these local authorities is available in the underlying data.
  • Response rates for each data point are available in the ‘Table’ tab alongside each chart.
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Early years settings

The response rate to the early years local authority survey was 84%, with 127 out of 151 LAs submitting data on 10 December.

The following figures are adjusted for non-response. More information can be found in the Methodology section of this release.

  • An estimated 55,000 early years settings were open on 10 December. This represents 81% of all settings, with 8% closed and 10% unknown [14]. The percentage closed may include some providers which are open, due to differences in the ways local authorities collect data and report non-responses. This is currently being reviewed.
  • We estimate 792,000 children attended early years settings on 10 December, down slightly from 795,000 on 3 December. This represents approximately 61% of the number of children who usually attend childcare in term time [15].
  • Due to many children attending EY settings on a part-time basis,  we would not expect all children to be in attendance on the day of the data collection. On a typical day in the autumn term we expect attendance to be 929,000. This estimate has been adjusted following a review of the data sources underpinning it and the methodology has been revised to more accurately account for ‘usual absence’. We estimate that the 792,000 children currently attending early years settings is approximately 85% of the usual daily level [16].

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[14] Due to rounding, these do not always sum to 100%. 

[15] The number of children in term time was estimated using outputs from the Childcare and early years survey of parents: 2019 (opens in a new tab) and ONS National Population Projections: 2018 based. (opens in a new tab)

[16] LAs are asked to send attendance in EY settings on a typical day of the week. We have calculated normal expected daily attendance based on estimates of the average number of days a child spends in formal childcare on any given day, using the Childcare and early years survey of parents: 2019 (opens in a new tab). For further details please see the methodology

Attendance rates for vulnerable children

Attendance rates for vulnerable children are presented as a proportion of the estimated number of children aged 0-4 with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) using formal childcare plus the total number of Children in Need aged 0-4. We do not have estimates of the number of Children in Need who usually use formal childcare. Therefore the attendance rate is presented to allow comparisons to be made over time, rather than the proportion of vulnerable children who would usually attend early years settings. This means this figure is not comparable with the proportion of children who usually attend childcare in term time.

  • Approximately 29,000 vulnerable children attended early years settings on 10 December, similar to 3 December. This represents around 34% of 0 to 4 year olds classified as ‘Children in Need’ or who have an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) [17].

 

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[17] 0 to 4 year olds excluding those in Reception classes. This is an estimate based on the 2019 Children in Need census and January 2020 school census. 

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Contact name: Raffaele Sasso

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