From 1 June, settings could be open to priority groups (children of critical workers and vulnerable children) and those from wider years (nursery, reception, year 1 and/or year 6) or open only to priority groups. From 15 June, wider years also included year 10 and year 12.
A new methodology was needed to account for this among the non-responders, and to distinguish between settings not open to wider years who normally have pupils from those years and those who do not.
Following a full week of returns, we analysed return patterns and developed a new methodology as follows:
- For settings that responded that day, we record i) whether they are open or closed to priority groups and ii) whether they are open or closed to children from wider years or this is not applicable.
- For settings that did not respond that day, but have since 1 June:
- If they reported that they planned to be closed on the next working day, they are assumed to be closed. Settings are asked this question separately for i) priority groups and ii) children from wider years. Therefore settings are categorised separately accordingly.
- If their most recent return was the previous day and they reported that they planned to open, it is assumed they have remained open.
- If the setting is normally open to wider years, their most recent return was prior to the previous day and they reported that they planned to open: a proportion was assumed to be open to priority groups and a proportion to both priority groups and wider years (see ‘Proportions assumed open from 1 June onwards’ below).
- If the setting is not normally open to wider years, their most recent return was prior to the previous day and they reported that they planned to open then 50% are assumed to be open.
- For settings normally open to wider years that have never responded: a proportion was assumed to be open to priority groups and a proportion to both priority groups and wider years (for proportions used see below).
- For settings not normally open to wider years that have never responded, it is assumed 50% have remained open to priority groups.
- Attendance rates are calculated for each group of settings and use 2019/20 census returns to calculate proportions of all pupils on roll. This is likely to over-estimate attendance in cases where settings are caring for pupils from other settings.
- When calculating attendance rates for non-responding settings that are assumed open, similar rates are assumed as responding open settings.
Proportions assumed open from 1 June onwards
Schools are categorised for these purposes as ‘primary schools’ if they have pupils in nursery, reception, year 1 or year 6 and ‘secondary schools' if they have pupils in year 10 or 12 on the school census . In addition to state-funded mainstream primary and secondary schools, these categories therefore include nursery schools, special schools, alternative provision and independent schools. The lower response rates and lower open rate among responders for some of these types of schools are reflected in our assumptions.
To arrive at the assumptions used between 1 and 12 June, a random sample of 125 non-responding settings was chosen, stratified by school type and region. Information about the open status of 51 of these schools was captured by contacting them by phone on 4 June and information about a further 50 settings was obtained via school websites.
For primary schools:
- 40% were assumed to be open to priority groups only;
- 30% were assumed to be open to priority groups and wider years; and
- 30% were assumed to be closed.
Between 15 and 19 June, the previous assumptions for primary schools continued to be used. To arrive at the assumptions for secondary schools, a random sample of 60 non-responding secondary settings was chosen and information about their open status obtained via schools websites.
For primary schools:
- 40% were assumed to be open to priority groups only;
- 30% were assumed to be open to priority groups and wider years; and
- 30% were assumed to be closed.
For secondary schools:
- 30% were assumed to be open to priority groups only;
- 20% were assumed to be open to priority groups and wider years; and
- 50% were assumed to be closed.
To arrive at the assumptions used between 22 June and 2 July, a random sample of 100 schools, stratified by school type was chosen and information about their open status obtained via schools websites.
For primary schools:
- 10% were assumed to be open to priority groups only
- 70% were assumed to be open to priority groups and wider years
- 20% were assumed to be closed
For secondary schools:
- 10% were assumed to be open to priority groups only
- 50% were assumed to be open to priority groups and wider years
- 40% were assumed to be closed
Additional assumption checking was carried out to better understand the impact of varying the assumptions on each setting type. Adjusting all assumptions by ±10% changes the estimated open settings by around 3%, whilst it has a negligible effect on the attendance rate (<0.5%).
Additional assumption checking was carried out to better understand the impact of varying the assumptions on each setting type. Adjusting all assumptions by 10 percentage points changes the estimated open rates by between 2 and 5 percentage points, with the exception of further education settings and independent schools, where open rates changed between 7 and 8 percentage points. This reflects the low response rates among these settings. The impact on estimated attendance rates by setting type was negligible – less than 1 percentage point for all settings.
Unadjusted data from 1 to 2 July has been made available in the accompanying data tables for comparisons with adjusted figures.
