Financial year 2021-22

Student loan forecasts for England

Student loan forecasts for English borrower entrants, outlay and repayments, with average loan amounts, lifetime repayments and cost to government

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• Produced by: Department for Education
• Published: 14 July 2022
• Last updated: 26 June 2023

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21 data sets available for download

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• Data for academic year key statistics

  National

  Data for key statistic headlines in academic years

  • Number of rows: 2
  • Indicators:
    • Full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2021/22 are expected to borrow on average
    • Of full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2021/22,
    • The number of total undergraduate entrants expected to take out loans in 2026/27 is
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2021/22 to 2026/27

  Data set information page
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• Table 6b: Forecast repayment threshold, by plan type

  National

  Forecast of repayment thresholds for Plan 1, Plan 2, Plan 3 and Plan 5 student loans.

  • Number of rows: 25
  • Indicators:
    • Repayment threshold
  • Filters:
    • Student loan plan type
  • Time period: 2021-22 to 2026-27

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• Table 1: Historical student loan outlay and forecast student loan outlay, by loan product

  National

  Historical and forecast student loan outlay by loan product in £ millions.

  • Number of rows: 346
  • Indicators:
    • Loan outlay
  • Filters:
    • Actual or Forecast
    • Loan product
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2012-13 to 2026-27

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• Data for financial year key statistics

  National

  Data for key statistic headlines in financial years

  • Number of rows: 3
  • Indicators:
    • Government is expected to issue
    • The government is forecast to subsidise
    • The loan book is forecast to reach
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2021-22 to 2026-27

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• Table 9: Loan balance at Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD), loan balance at SRDD in FY2021-22 prices, lifetime repayments in FY2021-22 prices, median years liable to repay, and proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms of undergraduate borrowers, by lifetime earnings decile

  National

  Average loan balance at Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD), average loan balance at SRDD in FY2021-22 prices, average lifetime repayments in FY2021-22 prices, median years liable to repay, and proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms of undergraduate borrowers, by lifetime decile

  • Number of rows: 23
  • Indicators:
    • Average lifetime repayments (in FY21-22 prices)
    • Average loan balance at SRDD (in FY 21-22 prices)
    • Average loan balance at SRDD (nominal)
  • Filters:
    • Lifetime Earnings Decile
  • Time period: 2021/22 to 2023/24

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• Table 6a: Forecast number of borrowers liable to make repayments and number of those earning above repayment threshold

  National

  Forecast number of student loan borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 79
  • Indicators:
    • Number of borrowers liable to make repayments
    • Number of borrowers liable to make repayments and earning above repayment threshold
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2021-22 to 2026-27

  Data set information page
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• Table 8: Projected long-term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product

  National

  Long-term projections of student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, interest rates, nominal and real terms face value of ICR student loans split by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 650
  • Indicators:
    • Cancelled loans (£ billion)
    • Capitalised interest (£ billion)
    • Interest rates
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2021-22 to 2070-71

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• Table 7b: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key policy inputs

  National

  Sensitivity of RAB charges to changes in repayment thresholds, interest rate and repayment rate.

  • Number of rows: 4
  • Indicators:
    • Current forecast
    • Interest rate 1pp higher each year
    • Interest rate 1pp lower each year
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2021/22

  Data set information page
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• Table 13: Average total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student by course start year and number of years of funding

  National

  Forecast mean total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student, by course start year and number of years of funding across 2021/22 to 2026/27

  • Number of rows: 145
  • Indicators:
    • Average total loan amount per borrower per start year
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Number of years of funding
    • Plan type
  • Time period: 2021/22 to 2026/27

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• Table 14: Average length of funding per higher education undergraduate student

  National

  Forecast mean number of years of funding per higher education undergraduate student for students starting between 2021/22 and 2026/27 by loan type

  • Number of rows: 7
  • Indicators:
    • Average length of funding per borrower
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type
  • Time period: 2026/27

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• Table 10: Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income

  National

  Loan outlay, mean loan outlay per student, number of students and proportion of students by Household Residual Income band for 2019/20

  • Number of rows: 17
  • Indicators:
    • Mean outlay per student
    • Number of students
    • Percentage
  • Filters:
    • HRI Band (£ thousands)
  • Time period: 2019/20

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• Table 7a: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs​

  National

  Sensitivity of RAB and stock charge to changes in RPI, average earnings and Bank of England rate.

  • Number of rows: 5
  • Indicators:
    • Average earnings growth 1pp higher each year
    • Average earnings growth 1pp lower each year
    • Bank of England base rate 1pp higher each year
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
    • Stock or RAB charge
  • Time period: 2021/22

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• Table 4a: Forecast stock charge, by loan product

  National

  Stock charge in % between 2018-19 and 2021-22 by loan product

  • Number of rows: 37
  • Indicators:
    • Stock charge
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2018-19 to 2021-22

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• Table 3: Forecast student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest accrued by loan borrowers and cancelled loans, by loan product

  National

  Forecast of student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest and cancelled loans between 2021-22 and 2026-27 in £ million.

  • Number of rows: 103
  • Indicators:
    • Cancelled loans
    • Capitalised interest
    • Loan outlay
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2021-22 to 2026-27

  Data set information page
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• Table 4c: Forecast transfer proportion, by loan product

  National

  Transfer proportion in % between 2018-19 and 2026-27 by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 82
  • Indicators:
    • Transfer proportion
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2018-19 to 2026-27

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• Table 2a: Forecast number of students receiving loans, by loan product

  National

  Forecast number of student receiving loans by loan product in thousands of students.

  • Number of rows: 241
  • Indicators:
    • Number of students (thousands)
  • Filters:
    • Loan product
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2019/20 to 2026/27

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• Table 4b: Forecast Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge, by loan product

  National

  RAB charge in % between 2018-19 and 2026-27 by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 82
  • Indicators:
    • RAB charge
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2018-19 to 2026-27

  Data set information page
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• Table 11: Average loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product

  National

  Forecast mean loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product across 2021/22 to 2026/27

  • Number of rows: 121
  • Indicators:
    • Average loan outlay per borrower per Academic Year
  • Filters:
    • Loan product
    • Loan type
    • Plan type
  • Time period: 2021/22 to 2026/27

  Data set information page
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• Table 2b: Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans, by loan product​

  National

  Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans by loan product in thousands of student entrants.

  • Number of rows: 241
  • Indicators:
    • Number of students entrants (thousands)
  • Filters:
    • Loan product
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2019/20 to 2026/27

  Data set information page
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• Table 12: Proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing

  National

  Forecast proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing, covering all borrowers starting between 2021/22 and 2026/27

  • Number of rows: 31
  • Indicators:
    • Proportion of borrowers
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Number of years of funding
    • Plan type
  • Time period: 2021/22

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• Table 5: Forecast percentage of borrowers expected to fully repay student loans, by loan product

  National

  Forecast proportion of borrowers in 2021-22 cohort expected to fully repay student loans by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 15
  • Indicators:
    • Proportion expected to fully repay loan
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2021/22 to 2023/24

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Data guidance

Description of the data sets included in this release, including information on data sources, coverage, quality and any data conventions used.

Description

This document describes the data included in the ‘Student loan forecasts for England’ Official Statistics release’s underlying data files.

The methodology document should be referenced alongside this data. It provides information on the data sources, their coverage and quality as well as explaining methodology used in producing the data.

Coverage

This release provides the latest information on forecasts for higher education and further education student loans in England. These include forecasts of student entrants, student loan outlay and student loan repayments. Only income-contingent student loans issued to English domiciled students studying in the UK or EU domiciled students studying in England are included. The forecasts are based on models developed by the Department for Education (DfE), details of quality and methodology are provided in the methodology document accompanying this publication. 

This is the sixth in an annual series of statistics publications on student loan forecasts. It covers forecasts produced during the 2021-22 financial year, primarily covering the period 2021-22 to 2026-27.

File formats and conventions

The following symbol is used in the underlying data files as follows: 

     z      data not applicable

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If you have a specific enquiry about Student loan forecasts for England statistics and data:

Higher Education Analysis

Email: he.modelling@education.gov.uk
Contact name: Niall Taylor and Tony Carter

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