Data set from Student loan forecasts for England

Table 8: Projected long-term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product

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Long-term projections of student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, interest rates, nominal and real terms face value of ICR student loans split by loan product.

Data set details

Theme
Finance and funding
Publication
Student loan forecasts for England
Release
Financial year 2021-22
Release type
Geographic levels
National
Indicators
  • Cancelled loans (£ billion)
  • Capitalised interest (£ billion)
  • Interest rates
Filters
  • Loan type
  • Plan type of loan
Time period
2021-22 to 2070-71

Data set preview

Table showing first 5 rows, from underlying data
plan_typeloan_typetime_periodoutlay_£bnrepayments_£bncapitalised_interest_£bncancelled_loans_£bnoutstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_£bnoutstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_202122_prices_£bninterest_ratestime_identifiergeographic_levelcountry_codecountry_name
Plan 1Plan 1 loans20212202.20.4036.436.41.2Financial yearNationalE92000001England
Plan 1Plan 1 loans20222302.30.8034.631.82.2Financial yearNationalE92000001England
Plan 1Plan 1 loans202324020.9033.127.72.8Financial yearNationalE92000001England
Plan 1Plan 1 loans20242501.60.8032.126.22.4Financial yearNationalE92000001England
Plan 1Plan 1 loans20252601.50.7031.324.92.3Financial yearNationalE92000001England

Variables in this data set

Table showing first 5 of 9 variables
Variable nameVariable description
cancelled_loans_£bnCancelled loans (£ billion)
capitalised_interest_£bnCapitalised interest (£ billion)
interest_ratesInterest rates
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_£bnLoan outlay (£ billion)

Footnotes

  1. Forecasts up to 2026-27 are consistent with those elsewhere in this publication. Beyond that they have been projected forward using the following assumptions: • Average higher education student loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for RPIX from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report • Average Advanced Learner Loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report • Future entrants are assumed to have the same distribution of characteristics, loan amounts (uprated by RPIX) and earnings (uprated by OBR average earnings growth forecasts) as the 2026/27 entrants in the DfE student loan repayment and Advanced Learner Loans models • Loan borrower entrant numbers vary in line with ONS 2018-based principal population projections, weighted to the age profile of new entrants for each loan product • No changes to student loan policies are assumed past 2026-27, other than annually uprating maximum loan amounts, repayment thresholds and interest thresholds as appropriate
  2. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
  3. Plan 5 loans will replace Plan 2 loans for new entrants to full-time and part-time undergraduate courses and new borrowers of Advanced Learner Loans from Academic Year 2023/24.
  4. Values in 2021-22 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
  5. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  6. Interest rates are presented as weighted averages, where borrowers with larger loan balances have higher weightings. For Plan 2 interest rates may vary between RPI and RPI + 3% depending on income. For Plans 1, 3 and 5 interest rates are not dependent on income.
  7. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
  8. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
  9. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
  10. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £0.1 billion.
  11. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  12. Loan cancellations as a result of a borrower reaching the end of their repayment term are recorded as being at the start of the first financial year in which they were no longer liable to make repayments.
  13. Doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
  14. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2021-22 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.

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