Table 7a: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs
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Sensitivity of RAB and stock charge to changes in RPI, average earnings and Bank of England rate.
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Data set details
- Theme
- Finance and funding
- Publication
- Student loan forecasts for England
- Release
- Financial year 2021-22
- Release type
- Geographic levels
- National
- Indicators
- Average earnings growth 1pp higher each year
- Average earnings growth 1pp lower each year
- Bank of England base rate 1pp higher each year
- Filters
- Loan type
- Plan type of loan
- Stock or RAB charge
- Time period
- 2021/22
Data set preview
| plan_type | loan_type | stock_rab | baseline_charge | rpi_-1pp | rpi_+1pp | average_earnings_growth_-1pp | average_earnings_growth_+1pp | bank_of_england_base_rate_-1pp | bank_of_england_base_rate_+1pp | time_period | time_identifier | geographic_level | country_code | country_name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | Stock | 46 | -6 | 6 | 5 | -5 | 2 | -2 | 202122 | Academic year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 2 | Higher education full time | RAB | 44 | -6 | 6 | 6 | -6 | z | z | 202122 | Academic year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 2 | Higher education part time | RAB | 33 | -4 | 4 | 4 | -4 | z | z | 202122 | Academic year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 2 | Advanced Learner loans | RAB | 55 | -2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | z | z | 202122 | Academic year | National | E92000001 | England |
Variables in this data set
| Variable name | Variable description |
|---|---|
| average_earnings_growth_-1pp | Average earnings growth 1pp lower each year |
| average_earnings_growth_+1pp | Average earnings growth 1pp higher each year |
| bank_of_england_base_rate_-1pp | Bank of England base rate 1pp lower each year |
| bank_of_england_base_rate_+1pp | Bank of England base rate 1pp higher each year |
| baseline_charge | Current forecast |
Footnotes
- Coverage: Undergraduate borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
- Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
- The ALL model is designed such that the repayment rate and interest charge are cohort based rather than applying to everyone in the actual year. So we don't see any impact in FY21-22 for either of these.
- Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
- This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB and stock charges are to various economic parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
- Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
- Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
- Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
- Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
- All changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2022-23.
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