Academic year 2021/22

Participation measures in higher education

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• Published: 26 October 2023
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The Cohort-based Higher Education Participation (CHEP) measure

This statistic measures higher education (HE) participation by school cohorts. It calculates the proportion of the population aiming to complete a qualification at HE level.

The percentage of individuals entering HE is measured for each cohort in state schools and all special schools at age 15.  Work-based learning, such as apprenticeships are excluded.

Cohorts of 15-year-olds can be tracked from 2001/02 in the National Pupil Database (NPD), up until their participation in HE in 2021/22, the latest year available, when that cohort will have reached age 35.

Time series in this publication will focus on participation in HE by age 25. This will be referred to as the CHEP-25 rate. Using age 25 gives a good balance between timeliness while still giving students time to enter HE.

Participation data for other ages has been made available in the downloadable files. The CHEP measure adds value on top of other similar measures as it tracks participation at older ages.

Why publish a participation rate?

Participation rates have been published by the department in different forms over many years. They help us to understand how the proportion of the population participating in higher education is impacted by changes in the economic, social and policy environment. 

Feedback on these statistics

Feedback on how these statistics can be improved to meet user requirements is welcome at he.statistics@education.cov.uk.

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Headline facts and figures - 2021/22

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About this release

The Cohort-based Higher Education Participation (CHEP) measure

This statistic measures higher education (HE) participation by school cohorts.  It calculates the proportion of the population aiming to complete a qualification at HE level.

The percentage of individuals entering HE is measured for each cohort in state schools and all special schools at age 15.  Work-based learning, such as apprenticeships are excluded.

Cohorts of 15-year-olds can be tracked from 2001/02 in the National Pupil Database (NPD), up until their participation in HE in 2021/22, the latest year available, when that cohort will have reached age 35.

Time series in this publication will focus on participation in HE by age 25 as this gives a good balance between timeliness while still giving students time to enter HE. This will be referred to as the CHEP-25 rate.

Coverage

The denominator for the CHEP measure is pupils who attended state schools and all special schools in England at age 15.  The numerator contains those who have participated in higher education (Levels 4 and above) in UK providers in either the Higher Education Statistics Agency's (HESA) Student or Alternative Provider Student records, or the Individualised Learner Record (ILR) from English further education colleges (FECs).

Pupils are deemed to have participated in Higher Education where they are:

• Recorded in HESA's Standard Registration Population, which requires a minimum of 2 weeks participation; or
• Recorded in the ILR college data as starting a learning aim at level 4 or higher that was either:
  1. Completed successfully
  2. Continuing into the following year
  3. Lasting over 6 months

Participation in HE at Alternative Providers is included for students who started courses in 2014/15 or later.

Exclusions

The following are not currently included in the CHEP measure:

• Pupils who attended independent schools
• Work-based learning, such as apprenticeships
• HE participation in Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish colleges
• HE participation outside the UK 

Feedback

DfE continues to welcome feedback on how the statistics can be developed to become even more relevant to users at he.statistics@education.gov.uk.

While this release is no longer considered to be a National Statistic due to its experimental nature, the statistics have been produced in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

Age

Charts and tables throughout this publication reference the academic year that each cohort was aged 15. Ages are those recorded on 31st of August at the start of the academic year.

For example, a pupil aged 15 in 2001/02 (our earliest cohort), was aged 20 in 2006/07, aged 25 in 2011/12, and aged 30 in 2016/17.  Alternatively, a pupil aged 15 in 2016/17 (a more recent cohort), was aged 20 in 2021/22, and will reach age 25 in 2026/27.

Summary of participation by ages 20, 25 and 30

• The latest cohort we can report participation by age 30 for is the 15-years-olds from 2006/07. For this cohort CHEP-30 was 45.1%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points from 40.8% for the 2001/02 cohort.
• The latest cohort we can report participation by age 25 for is the 15-year-olds from 2011/12. For this cohort CHEP-25 was 48.6%, an increase of 9.8 percentage points from 38.8% for the 2001/02 cohort.
• The latest cohort we can report participation by age 20 for is the 15-year-olds from 2016/17. For this cohort CHEP-20 was 47.1%, an increase of 13.5 percentage points from 33.6% for the 2001/02 cohort.

Focus on HE participation by age 25

• Time series in this publication will focus on participation in higher education by age 25 (CHEP-25) as it provides a good balance between keeping the measure timely and allowing students time to enter into HE.
• The CHEP-25 rate has increased for every cohort of 15-year-olds since 2001/02, reaching 48.6% for the 2011/12 cohort of 15-year-olds who had participated by the age of 25 in 2021/22.  This increase was largely driven by the 18-year-old contribution, which accounted for 27.9 percentage points of the 48.6% rate. This is an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the 18-year-old contribution of the 2010/11 cohort.
• If current trends continue, the CHEP-25 rate can be expected to surpass 50% before the 2016/17 cohort turn 25. The CHEP-20 rate for the 2016/17 cohort is 47.1%, meaning that only 2.9 percentage points is required to reach 50%. For reference, the difference between the CHEP-25 and CHEP-20 rate for the 2011/12 cohort, which is the group most recently turning 25, was 4.8 percentage points.
• The difference in the participation rate between ages 20 and 25 has consistently remained close to 5 percentage points for the cohorts from 2001/02 to 2011/12, meaning the proportion participating in HE between the ages of 20 and 25 has remained stable over time.

Age specific participation

• Our cohort analysis allows us to examine the participation rate for every 15-year-old cohort from 2001/02 to 2019/20, and their participation in HE by 2021/22.
• The table shows that 15-year-olds in 2018/19 have HE participation data available only as far as age 18, while the 2001/02 cohort has participation data available as far as age 35.
• Note the table shows the cumulative percentage, so for example the age 25 column (which is CHEP-25) shows the percentage that have entered by 25, instead of at 25.
• The highest rate measured so far using the cohort method was for the 2011/12 cohort of 15-year-olds, of which 48.6% had participated in HE by age 25 in 2021/22
• As the 18-year-old participation rate has increased for every cohort since 2010/11, this has impacted on the likelihood of first-time participation in HE by individuals aged 19 and above.  This effect was evident during the impact of the 2012/13 HE reforms, which resulted in a larger proportion of 18-year-olds participating in HE in 2011/12, and a smaller proportion of 19-year-olds in 2012/13.

Impact of 2012/13 reforms

• Previous participation measures were impacted by the introduction of variable tuition fees in 2012/13, with fewer 18 years olds in 2011/12 deferring their studies than is typical and instead deciding to enter in 2011/12 to take advantage of the lower fee level. Therefore fewer 19-year-olds entered HE in 2012/13.
• This pattern among 18-year-olds is evident for the 2008/09 and 2009/10 cohorts in the table; these cohorts would have entered HE aged 18 in 2011/12 and 2012/13 respectively.
• The percentage of the 2008/09 cohort that had participated in HE by age 18 was 27.0%. This is 3.0 percentage points higher than the previous cohort and the highest increase on record between cohorts at age 18.
• After the initial change in behaviour observed at age 18, the participation in HE by age 20 for the 2008/09 and 2009/10 cohorts had realigned with the overall trend observed across previous cohorts.

Impact from COVID-19

Recent cohorts of 15-year-olds include A level pupils who were likely to be affected by disruption to assessments caused by COVID-19. 

A level pupils received Centre Assessed Grades in 2019/20 and Teacher Assessed Grades in 2020/21, with pupils more likely to achieve higher grades than in previous years. This led to more pupils being accepted to HE and could explain the increased participation by age 18 rates in recent years.  Comparisons with earlier cohorts should therefore be treated with caution.

Gender

Gender is recorded as male or female in the School Census. Gender is self-declared and recorded according to the wishes of the parent and / or pupil.

• For the 2011/12 cohort of 15-year-olds who had participated by age 25 in 2021/22, the CHEP-25 rate was 54.1% for females, and 43.3% for males.
• Compared to the 2010/11 cohort who had participated by age 25 in 2020/21, CHEP-25 grew by 2.0 percentage points for females, and by 1.3 percentage points for males.
• The female-male gap in participation widened to 10.8 percentage points for the 2011/12 cohort, from 10.1 percentage points for the 2010/11 cohort. 

Region

Region is based on the location of the school that the pupil attended at age 15. The location of the school is determined by the Local Authority (LA) it reports to. In some cases, pupils may have lived in a different area to the one where their school was located, including some pupils attending schools in England who lived in Wales or Scotland. 

• For the 2011/12 cohort of 15-year-olds who had participated by age 25 in 2021/22, the region with the highest CHEP-25 rate was London.  At 61.4%, the participation rate in London was 12.8 percentage points higher than England overall, with this gap widening from 7.5 percentage points for the 2001/02 cohort who had participated by age 25 in 2011/12.  London is highlighted in blue on the chart below.
• For the 2011/12 cohort, the region with the lowest CHEP-25 rate was the South West.  At 44.5%, the participation rate in the South West was 4.1 percentage points lower than England overall.  The South West is highlighted in orange on the chart below.
• For 2008/09 and earlier cohorts, Yorkshire and The Humber had the lowest CHEP-25 rates. They have since overtaken the South West, East Midlands and the North East and are now 3.0 percentage points lower than England overall, reducing the gap by 1.0 percentage point since 2001/02 cohort.

Level of Study

Level of study refers to the qualification that the individual was aiming to achieve when they set out in their studies.

• For the 2011/12 cohort of 15-year-olds who had participated by age 25 in 2021/22, the CHEP-25 rate was 43.4% for first degrees (including integrated masters), and 5.2% for qualifications other than first degrees.
• Compared to the 2010/11 cohort who had participated by age 25 in 2020/21, CHEP-25 grew by 1.9 percentage points for first degrees, and fell by 0.2 percentage points for qualifications other than first degrees.
• Growth in the CHEP-25 rate since the 2001/02 cohort was mainly driven by more students undertaking first degrees. 
• The contribution of foundation degrees to the CHEP-25 rate grew from 1.1% for the 2001/02 cohort to 3.2% for the 2006/07 cohort, before falling to 2.3% for the 2011/12 cohort.

Mode of Study

Mode of study refers to whether a student has undertaken full-time or part-time higher education.

• For the 2011/12 cohort of 15-year-olds who had participated by age 25 in 2021/22, the CHEP-25 rate disaggregates to 45.5% participating in full-time study, and 3.1% in part-time study.
• Compared with the 2010/11 cohort who had participated by age 25 in 2020/21, CHEP-25 grew by 1.6 percentage points for full-time study, and remained the same for part-time study.
• Overall, part-time study by age 25 has fallen by 0.9 percentage points from 4.0% for the 2001/02 cohort.
• The contribution from part-time study is likely to increase with age, as confirmed by CHEP-30 adding roughly another percentage point to the CHEP-25 part-time rate.

Projecting future HE participation

The new ‘cohort’ measure

• Last year we transitioned to reporting higher education participation using a cohort measure, which tracks a 15-year-old school cohort over time until they participate in higher education.

The previous ‘projected’ measure

• The previous measure summed together age-specific initial entry rates recorded in the latest year to estimate a participation rate. This estimate was described as a projection of the likelihood that a 17-year-old would participate in higher education by age 30 if current participation levels persisted into the future.
• The denominator for the previous measure used mid-year population estimates published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) which had been adjusted to an academic year basis, rather than a 15-year-old school cohort.

Projecting participation from cohort data

• Using the age specific data that we have included in the ‘Age’ section of this publication, it is possible to construct a ‘projected’ measure using the initial participation rates recorded for each of the 15-year-old cohorts in 2021/22. 
• Whilst providing a more up-to-date estimate of participation levels by age 30, this suffers the same limitations as the previous measure, as it could only project future participation accurately if age-specific participation remained in a steady state year after year. As we see the number of 18-year-old entrants increasing each year, this impacts on the likelihood of participation in later years, and therefore impacts on the accuracy of this as a projection of future participation.

Comparing the projection from cohort data with the previous ‘projected’ measure

• The data shows a decrease of 0.3 percentage points in the initial entry percentage derived from cohort data in 2021/22, down to 57.2% compared with 57.5% in 2020/21. 
• The atypical sharp increase in participation between 2019/20 and 2020/21 is largely explained by the increased initial entry percentage that temporarily impacted all ages during the COVID-19 pandemic. This highlights the limitation with the suitability of this measure as a projection of future participation. The decrease between 2020/21 and 2021/22 is caused by the initial entry percentages for ages 19 and over returning to pre-pandemic levels.
• The initial entry percentages estimated from the cohort data tend to be larger than those estimated using the previous methodology. Such differences can be explained by:
  • using 15-year-old cohorts as the denominator rather than ONS population estimates (which would be impacted by incoming migration)
  • relaxing the requirement to participate in HE for a minimum 6-months

2011/12 was the last academic year before tuition fees increased in England. There was a notable increase in HE participation in 2011/12, followed by a drop in participation the year after, as students who might normally have deferred their place to 2012/13 entry opted not to. 

Other data sources

Other data sources

There are various other publications that provide estimated participation rates and show how these contribute to the skill levels of the working population in England. 

UCAS Entry Rates

UCAS entry rates for 18-year-olds will be different to the equivalent 18-year-old participation rates reported in this publication, largely due to the following:

• UCAS entry rates cover acceptances to an application cycle, so for the 2021 cycle this will include acceptances to the 2021/22 academic year as well as students who choose to defer and are accepted to the 2022/23 academic year. Whereas, the CHEP rates are based on entrants to the 2021/22 academic year only. 
• UCAS entry rates cover full-time undergraduate acceptances who applied through the UCAS system, whereas the CHEP rate covers all levels of study for both full-time and part-time students.
• UCAS entry rates are calculated using ONS population estimates whereas the CHEP rates are calculated using the number of 15-year-olds in a given academic year, based on the School Census.
• UCAS entry rates include pupils from independent schools, whereas the CHEP rates only includes pupils from state schools and all special schools.

The UCAS End of Cycle 2022 Report shows that the entry rate to full-time higher education for English 18-year-olds at UK providers increased from 37.9% in the 2020 application cycle to 39.0% in the 2021 application cycle, an increase of 1.1 percentage points. The comparable CHEP rates refer to 18-year-olds in 2020/21 and 2021/22, who belonged to the 15-year-old cohorts of 2017/18 and 2018/19. The percentage of those cohorts that had participated in higher education by age 18 were 34.8% for the 2017/18 cohort, and 35.3% for the 2018/19 cohort, a 0.5 percentage point increase.  These are the two most recent cohorts for which we have CHEP rates for 18-year-olds.  

UCAS also reports that the entry rate to full-time higher education for English 18-year-olds decreased from 39.0% in the 2021 application cycle, to 38.4% in 2022.

The 18-year-old entrants in 2022 belong to the 15-year-old cohort of 2019/20, hence their participation rate by 18 will be published as part of next year's CHEP statistics. Based on the UCAS 2022 entry rates, we could expect to see a decrease in the CHEP-18 rate for the 2019/20 cohort compared to the 2018/19 cohort.

Census 2021

The highest level of qualification obtained for individuals across England and Wales is collected as part of the Census. The percentage of people aged at least 16 in England that indicated their highest level of qualification was Level 4 or above was 33.9%. Education, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) 

Percentage of the population qualified to higher education level

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes statistics from the Annual Population Survey (APS) on the percentage of the population qualified to National Vocational Qualification (NVQ) levels 4 or above, which is equivalent to higher education level.

The percentage of the 25 to 29 population of England qualified to NVQ level 4 or above by calendar year is shown in the chart and table below.

The percentage of the population aged 25 to 29 qualified at level 4 or above in the calendar year 2021/22 was estimated to be 53.9%. This is larger than estimates available using the corresponding CHEP rates. ONS estimates from the APS include L4+ qualifications obtained through work-based learning such as apprenticeships, and are not limited to pupils from state schools and special schools.

Alternative disaggregations of the APS are available at Dataset Selection - Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics (nomisweb.co.uk).

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• Participation measures in higher education

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If you have a specific enquiry about Participation measures in higher education statistics and data:

HE Participation and Provider Statistics Team

Email: he.statistics@education.gov.uk
Contact name: Matthew Bollington
Telephone: 07795 044323

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