Academic year 2020/21

Participation measures in higher education

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Introduction

Introducing the Cohort-based Higher Education Participation (CHEP) measure

This is a new statistic measuring higher education (HE) participation by school cohorts.  It calculates the proportion of the population aiming to complete a qualification at HE level.

From this year, the percentage of individuals entering HE is measured for each cohort in state and special schools at age 15.  Work-based learning, such as apprenticeships are excluded.

Cohorts of 15-year-olds can be tracked from 2001/02 in the National Pupil Database (NPD), up until their participation in HE in 2020/21, the latest year available, when that cohort will have reached age 34.

Time series in this publication will focus on participation in HE by age 25. This will be referred to as the CHEP-25 rate. Using age 25 gives a good balance between timeliness while still giving students time to enter HE.

Participation data for other ages has been made available in the downloadable files.  The CHEP measure adds value on top of other similar measures as it tracks participation at older ages.

Estimating participation based on current participation levels

The new cohort methodology supersedes the previous measure of higher education participation (HEIP), which estimated participation by age 30 based on ‘current’ participation levels, rather than tracking a cohort. 

An equivalent estimate of ‘current’ participation, which is the sum of age-specific participation percentages in a single year, has been derived this year from the new cohort-based data. See section Comparison with the previous measure for further details.

You can view the previous HEIP publications under Past releases on the right sidebar.  HEIP has been published by DfE (and former Departments) since 2004.

Feedback on these new statistics

Feedback on how these statistics can be improved to meet user requirements is welcome at he.statistics@education.cov.uk.


Headline facts and figures - 2020/21

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About this release

Introducing the Cohort-based Higher Education Participation (CHEP) measure

This is a new statistic measuring higher education (HE) participation by school cohorts.  It calculates the proportion of the population aiming to complete a qualification at HE level.

From this year, the percentage of individuals entering HE is measured for each cohort in state and special schools at age 15.  Work-based learning, such as apprenticeships are excluded.

Cohorts of 15-year-olds can be tracked from 2001/02 in the National Pupil Database (NPD), up until their participation in HE in 2020/21, the latest year available, when that cohort will have reached age 34.

Time series in this publication will focus on participation in HE by age 25. This will be referred to as the CHEP-25 rate. Using age 25 gives a good balance between timeliness while still giving students time to enter HE.  To give continuity with the previous measure, we have included participation up to age 30 in the Age and Comparison with previous measure sections of the publication. 

Coverage

The denominator for the CHEP measure is pupils who attended state-funded schools and special schools in England at age 15.  The numerator contains those who have participated in higher education (Levels 4 and above) in UK providers in either the Higher Education Statistics Agency's (HESA) Student or Alternative Provider Student records, or the Individualised Learner Record (ILR) from English further education colleges (FECs).

Pupils are deemed to have participated in Higher Education where they are:

  • Recorded in HESA's Standard Registration Population, which requires a minimum of 2 weeks participation; or
  • Recorded in the ILR college data as starting a learning aim at level 4 or higher that was either:
    1. Completed successfully
    2. Continuing into the following year
    3. Lasting over 6 months

Participation in HE at Alternative Providers is included for students who started courses in 2014/15 or later.

Exclusions

The following are not currently included in the CHEP measure:

  • Pupils who attended independent schools
  • Work-based learning, such as apprenticeships
  • HE participation in Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish colleges
  • HE participation outside the UK 

Limitations

The measures provide a generally consistent time series, however there are some factors that will impact on this.

The publication relies on “fuzzy matching” which matches data based on the personal details collected in each dataset. Match quality and match rates will change over time as new data is added and improved methodologies applied.

These changes will impact the figures for the percentage of pupils entering HE presented in this publication. Calculations involve a very long run of data dating back to 2001/02. If the match rate increases due to methodological changes this could result in an increased CHEP rate even if there has been no behavioural change in terms of participating in HE. 

The match quality and rate are likely to be more volatile for pupils where fewer personal details are known such as for pupils who attended independent schools and pupils who have lived outside England or changed address between compulsory schooling and prior to entering HE (which is more likely to be the case for older students). We therefore chose to exclude independent school pupils from the coverage of this release.

Our analysis suggests that there are specific years that are more affected by changes in the matching than others:

  • The match to HESA data did not include 16 and 17-year-olds prior to 2014/15.
  • The filters used to remove under 18s from the HESA data in 2008/09 were incorrectly applied, which led to a small number of 17-year-olds being matched and some 18-year-olds not being included in the match in that year. For 18-year-olds this is likely to have reduced the number being matched by up to around 10%, although the vast majority will have participated in HE at age 19 in 2009/10 and so the impact on cohort measures will be limited. For 17-year-olds the numbers are very small and so the key measures used are not affected, however it has caused a large proportional increase in the number entering HE at age 17 in 2008/09.  
  • Changes in the matching methodology in 2018 have led to an increase in the number of HE entrants that matched to a school census record for HE entry from 2017/18 onwards where they were categorised in their HE records as not being domiciled in England immediately prior to study. We believe the numbers involved are relatively small but will have some impact on comparisons between figures looking at HE entry in 2016/17 and later years.  Overall, we are confident these changes have minimal impact on the robustness of the CHEP-25 rates.

Although the school census provides a largely stable population base, it is not an estimate of the population of 15-year-olds. Changes in the number of pupils who are home-schooled or who attended independent schools will affect the comparability of the figures over time.  The impact is minimal for the cohorts in this release, but will become more apparent in future as home-schooling has increased since the Covid-19 pandemic.

These figures do not include participation in HE in colleges in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland or any HE outside the UK and so will not provide a complete picture of participation in HE.

Feedback

DfE continues to welcome feedback on how the statistics can be developed to become even more relevant to users at he.statistics@education.gov.uk.

While this release is no longer considered to be a National Statistic due to its experimental nature, the statistics have been produced in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

Age

Charts and tables throughout this publication reference the academic year that each cohort was aged 15. Ages are those recorded on 31st of August at the start of the academic year.

For example, a pupil aged 15 in 2001/02 (our earliest cohort), was aged 20 in 2006/07, aged 25 in 2011/12, and aged 30 in 2016/17.  Alternatively, a pupil aged 15 in 2015/16 (a more recent cohort), was aged 20 in 2020/21, and will reach age 25 in 2025/26.

Summary of participation by ages 20, 25 and 30

  • The latest cohort we can report participation by age 30 for is the 15-years-olds from 2005/06. For this cohort CHEP-30 was 43.9%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from 40.8% for the 2001/02 cohort.
  • The latest cohort we can report participation by age 25 for is the 15-year-olds from 2010/11. For this cohort CHEP-25 was 47.0%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points from 38.8% for the 2001/02 cohort.
  • The latest cohort we can report participation by age 20 for is the 15-year-olds from 2015/16. For this cohort CHEP-20 was 45.9%, an increase of 12.3 percentage points from 33.6% for the 2001/02 cohort.

Focus on HE participation by age 25

  • Time series in this publication will focus on participation in higher education by age 25 (CHEP-25) as it provides a good balance between keeping the measure timely and allowing students time to enter into HE.
  • The CHEP-25 rate has increased for every cohort of 15-year-olds since 2002/03, reaching 47.0% for the 2010/11 cohort of 15-year-olds who had participated by the age of 25 in 2020/21.  This increase was largely driven by the 18-year-old contribution, which accounted for 26.5 percentage points of the 47.0% rate. This is an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to the 18-year-old contribution of the 2009/10 cohort.
  • The difference in the participation rate between ages 20 and 25 has consistently remained close to 5 percentage points for the cohorts from 2001/02 to 2010/11, meaning the proportion participating in HE between the ages of 20 and 25 has remained stable over time.

Age specific participation

  • Our cohort analysis allows us to examine the participation rate for every 15-year-old cohort from 2001/02 to 2018/19, and their participation in higher education (HE) by 2020/21.
  • The table shows that 15-year-olds in 2017/18 have HE participation data available only as far as age 18, while the 2001/02 cohort has participation data available as far as age 34.
  • Note the table shows the cumulative percentage, so for example the age 25 column (which is CHEP-25) shows the percentage that have entered by 25, instead of at 25.
  • The highest rate measured so far using the cohort method was for the 2011/12 cohort of 15-year-olds, of which 48.0% had participated in HE by age 24 in 2020/21

Impact of 2012/13 reforms

  • Previous participation measures were impacted by the introduction of variable tuition fees in 2012/13, with fewer 18 years olds in 2011/12 deferring their studies, instead deciding to enter in 2011/12, and therefore fewer 19-year-olds entering in 2012/13.
  • This pattern among 18-year-olds is evident for the 2008/09 and 2009/10 cohorts in the table; these cohorts would have entered HE aged 18 in 2011/12 and 2012/13 respectively.
  •  The percentage of the 2008/09 cohort that had participated in HE by age 18 was 27.0%. This is 3.0 percentage points higher than the previous cohort and the highest increase on record between cohorts at age 18.
  • After the initial change in behaviour observed at age 18, the participation in HE by age 20 for the 2008/09 and 2009/10 cohorts had realigned with the overall trend observed across previous cohorts.

Gender

Gender is recorded as male or female in the School Census. Gender is self-declared and recorded according to the wishes of the parent and / or pupil.

  • For the 2010/11 cohort of 15-year-olds who had participated by age 25 in 2020/21, the CHEP-25 rate was 52.1% for females, and 42.0% for males.
  • Compared to the 2009/10 cohort who had participated by age 25 in 2019/20, CHEP-25 grew by 2.1 percentage points for females, and by 1.3 percentage points for males.
  • The female-male gap in participation widened to 10.1 percentage points for the 2010/11 cohort, from 9.3 percentage points for the 2009/10 cohort. 

Region

Region is based on the location of the school that the pupil attended at age 15. The location of the school is determined by the Local Authority (LA) it reports to. In some cases, pupils may have lived in a different area to the one where their school was located, including some pupils attending schools in England who lived in Wales or Scotland. 

  • For the 2010/11 cohort of 15-year-olds who had participated by age 25 in 2020/21, the region with the highest CHEP-25 rate was London.  At 59.3%, the participation rate in London was 12.3 percentage points higher than England overall, with this gap widening from 7.5 percentage points for the 2001/02 cohort who had participated by age 25 in 2011/12.  London is highlighted in maroon on the chart below.
  • For the 2010/11 cohort, the region with the lowest CHEP-25 rate was the South West.  At 43.1%, the participation rate in the South West was 3.9 percentage points lower than England overall.  The South West is highlighted in pink on the chart below.
  • For 2008/09 and earlier cohorts, the South West was not the region with the lowest CHEP-25; instead Yorkshire and The Humber had the lowest participation rates.

Level of Study

Level of study refers to the qualification that the individual was aiming to achieve when they set out in their studies.

  • For the 2010/11 cohort of 15-year-olds who had participated by age 25 in 2020/21, the CHEP-25 rate was 41.5% for first degrees (including integrated masters), and 5.4% for qualifications other than first degrees.
  • Compared to the 2009/10 cohort who had participated by age 25 in 2019/20, CHEP-25 grew by 2.1 percentage points for first degrees, and fell by 0.4 percentage points for qualifications other than first degrees.
  • Growth in the CHEP-25 rate since the 2001/02 cohort was mainly driven by more students undertaking first degrees. 
  • The contribution of foundation degrees to the CHEP-25 rate grew from 1.1% for the 2001/02 cohort to 3.2% for the 2006/07 cohort, before falling to 2.5% for the 2010/11 cohort.

Mode of Study

Mode of study refers to whether a student has undertaken full-time or part-time higher education.

  • For the 2010/11 cohort of 15-year-olds who had participated by age 25 in 2020/21, the CHEP-25 rate disaggregates to 43.9% participating in full-time study, and 3.1% in part-time study.
  • Compared with the 2009/10 cohort who had participated by age 25 in 2019/20, CHEP-25 grew by 1.9 percentage points for full-time study, and fell by of 0.1 percentage points for part-time study.
  • Overall, part-time study by age 25 has fallen by 0.9 percentage points from 4.0% for the 2001/02 cohort.
  • The contribution from part-time study is likely to increase with age, as confirmed by CHEP-30 adding roughly another percentage point to the CHEP-25 part-time rate.

Comparison with the previous measure

The new ‘cohort’ measure

  • This year we have transitioned to reporting higher education participation using a cohort measure, which tracks a 15-year-old school cohort over time until they participate in higher education.

The previous ‘projected’ measure

  • The previous measure summed together age-specific initial entry rates recorded in the latest year to estimate a participation rate. This estimate was described as a projection of the likelihood that a 17-year-old would participate in higher education by age 30 if current participation levels persisted into the future.
  • The denominator for the previous measure used mid-year population estimates published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) which had been adjusted to an academic year basis, rather than a 15-year-old school cohort.

Projecting participation from cohort data

  • Using the age specific data that we have included in the ‘Age’ section of this publication, it is possible to construct a ‘projected’ measure using the initial participation rates recorded for each of the 15-year-old cohorts in 2020/21. 
  • Whilst providing a more up-to-date estimate of participation levels by age 30, this suffers the same limitations as the previous measure, as it could only project future participation accurately if age-specific participation remained in a steady state year after year. As we see the number of 18-year-old entrants increasing each year, this impacts on the likelihood of participation in later years, and therefore impacts on the accuracy of this as a projection of future participation.

The chart

  • The data shows a notable increase of 3.6 percentage points in the initial entry percentage derived from cohort data in 2020/21, up to 57.5% compared with 53.9% in 2019/20. 
  • The increase in participation in 2020/21 is largely explained by the increased HE participation across all ages during the COVID-19 pandemic, and highlights a limitation with the suitability of this measure as a projection of future participation.
  • The initial entry percentages estimated from the cohort data tend to be larger than those estimated using the previous methodology. Such differences can be explained by:
    • using 15-year-old cohorts as the denominator rather than ONS population estimates (which would be impacted by incoming migration)
    • relaxing the requirement to participate in HE for a minimum 6-months

2011/12 was the last academic year before tuition fees increased in England. There was a notable increase in HE participation in 2011/12, followed by a drop in participation the year after, as students who might normally have deferred their place to 2012/13 entry opted not to. 

Other data sources

Other data sources

There are various other publications that provide estimated participation rates and show how these contribute to the skill levels of the working population in England. 

UCAS Entry Rates

UCAS entry rates for 18-year-olds will be different to the equivalent participation rates reported in this publication, largely due to the following:

  • UCAS entry rates are based on the age in which an applicant accepts their place and not the age in which they commence their course. For example, it is possible for an accepted applicant to defer to the following year. The CHEP rates are based on actual participation on a course.
  • UCAS entry rates cover full-time undergraduate acceptances only, whereas the CHEP rate covers all levels of study for both full-time and part-time students.
  • UCAS entry rates are calculated using an estimation of the number of 18-year-olds in a given application cycle, whereas the CHEP rates are calculated using the number of 15-year-olds in a given academic year, based on the School Census.
  • UCAS entry rates include pupils from independent schools, whereas the CHEP rates only includes pupils from state-funded schools and special schools.

The UCAS End of Cycle 2022 Report shows that the entry rate to full-time higher education for English 18-year-olds at UK providers rose from 35.0% in 2019/20 to 37.9% in 2020/21, an increase of 2.9 percentage points. The comparable CHEP rates refer to 18-year-olds in 2019/20 and 2020/21, who belonged to the 15-year-old cohorts of 2016/17 and 2017/18. The percentage of those cohorts that had participated in higher education by age 18 were 32.3% for the 2016/17 cohort, and 34.8% for the 2017/18 cohort, a 2.5 percentage point increase.  These are the two most recent cohorts for which we have CHEP rates for 18-year-olds.

The UCAS report also includes entry rates for subsequent years. In 2021/22 the UCAS entry rate to full-time higher education by 18-year-olds increased again to 39.0%, before decreasing in 2022/23 to 38.4%. 

Office for Students Young Participation Rates

Maps of young HE participation rates for local areas are published by the Office for Students and can be viewed here.

Census 2021

The highest level of qualification obtained for individuals across England and Wales is collected as part of the Census. The percentage of people aged at least 16 in England that indicated their highest level of qualification was Level 4 or above was 33.9%. Education, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) 

Percentage of the population qualified to higher education level

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes statistics from the Annual Population Survey (APS) on the percentage of the population qualified to National Vocational Qualification (NVQ) levels 4 or above, which is equivalent to higher education level.

The percentage of the 25 to 29 population of England qualified to NVQ level 4 or above by calendar year is shown in the chart and table below.

The percentage of the population aged 25 to 29 qualified at level 4 or above in the calendar year 2020/21 was estimated to be 53.0%. This is larger than estimates available using the corresponding CHEP rates. ONS estimates from the APS include L4+ qualifications obtained through work-based learning such as apprenticeships, and are not limited to pupils from state-funded schools and special schools.

Alternative disaggregations of the APS are available at Dataset Selection - Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics (nomisweb.co.uk).

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Contact us

If you have a specific enquiry about Participation measures in higher education statistics and data:

HE Participation and Provider Statistics Team

Email: he.statistics@education.gov.uk
Contact name: Matthew Bollington
Telephone: 07795 044323

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