This methodology provides information on the data sources used in the ‘School capacity’ release. It also provides information on the data quality and coverage and highlights any key limitations.
School capacity
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Updated data coverage and definitions sections
Updated for SCAP22
Introduction
Data collection
Information in the ‘School capacity’ release has been derived from three data sources:
- School Capacity survey: an annual survey returned by local authorities in England that collects information on the below.
- School capacity: primary and secondary school capacity for the current academic year.
- Pupil forecasts for the next five academic years ahead for primary and seven years ahead for secondary.
- Local authority planned places: plans for changes to the number of primary and secondary places for the next three academic years.
- School Census: a termly census of all schools in England, used to provide pupil number on roll figures for the below.
- Actual pupil numbers in the forecast data are based on the January 2022 census.
- Number on roll figures within the school capacity data are taken from the May census for the relevant academic year.
- DfE Central Programmes data: internal projects which will add or remove capacity. Further detail is available in the 'School place planning technical guidance 2022' in supporting files.
Changes to School Capacity survey in 2022
For schools that have more than one site located in different planning areas, the School Capacity 2022 survey allowed local authorities to submit more than one planning area per school and a separate capacity for each school site. This means for a small number of schools their 2021/22 capacity data is published on two lines. Therefore, users will need to filter/select both sites to view the 2021/22 capacity data for the school.
Data coverage and quality
All the data submitted by local authorities in the School Capacity survey have undergone a thorough data cleaning process with validation at source and at the department. Anomalies have been raised with local authorities to check that the guidance has been followed. Except where noted, all data has been signed off by local authority’ Directors of Children’s Services (or equivalent roles) as complete and accurate.
For the 2022 School Capacity publication, planning area level forecasts for Kent are yet to be signed off and are subject to change.
School capacity
The School capacity survey includes mainstream state schools with capacity in any of the year groups from reception to year 11, on 1 May. This includes local authority-maintained schools and academies, including free schools, city technology colleges, university technical colleges, studio schools.
Capacity measures vary depending on the type of school and any exceptional circumstances (see definitions section).
The capacities of recently opened free schools are reported at their final intended capacity once places are filled.
Survey returns exclude special schools, nursery schools and nursery units within schools, pupil referral units and alternative provision settings, dedicated SEN units within schools, independent schools and 16-19 establishments.
For a middle-deemed primary school, all capacity is counted as primary. Primary capacity excludes nursery places.
For a middle-deemed secondary or all-through school, all capacity is counted as secondary. Sixth form places are included in the total secondary capacity.
In constructing the timeseries of school capacity data, minor revisions have been made to 2016/17 and earlier data to account for slight inconsistencies in methodology in how the published tables were produced. Data for 2019/20 is not available due to the cancellation of the 2020 school capacity survey due to Covid-19. This means the 20/21 net change in school places since the previous survey, is not comparable to previous years, because this change is over two years rather than one year.
School level capacity data needs to be viewed in context relevant to the school type. School type can be found at Get information about schools.
School sixth form capacity
Sixth form capacity has been as a voluntary field since 2018. The response rate has improved with local authorities reporting sixth form capacity for 99% of schools with sixth form pupils on roll in 2022 and 2021 (up from 92% in 2018).
Comparisons across reporting years prior to 2021 should be treated with caution. Changes prior to 2021 are likely to indicate improvements in data quality rather than actual changes in numbers.
Regarding the local authorities with incomplete data, there are a small number of schools where the sixth form pupils on roll may include pupils from separate providers, therefore the local authority is unable to report any corresponding capacity for the school.
Local authority planned places
Local authority planned places are collected at planning area level. The future additional, bulge and places to remove, are based on local authority estimates.
Local authority planned places include future addition or removal of places from a schools’ net capacity, at the time of the survey. Planned changes to pupil admission number are NOT included, unless they will result in a change in the net capacity assessment or academy funding agreement.
Local authority planned places include those from locally funded projects, including zero cost projects, where the local authority had a high degree of certainty the project would go ahead. This is normally where funding had been committed, for example where the local decision-maker had signed off the plans or where contracts had been let.
New places from presumption free schools, expected to open in the next three academic years at the time of the survey, are included.
Local authority planned places, do NOT include the addition or removal of places from the below projects which are centrally funded by the DFE.
- Priority School Building Programme
- A centrally delivered free school programme (includes free schools, UTCs and studio schools)
- Condition Improvement Fund
- Selective Schools Expansion Fund
- Capital scheme for voluntary-aided schools
- School rebuilding programme
Local authority pupil forecasts
Forecast data is generated by local authorities based on their own data and local knowledge. Forecasts include future school places funded by Housing Developer Contributions and Housing Infrastructure Fund. Forecasts are collected at a planning area level.
These forecasts are challenged extensively during data cleaning processes. There are variations in the forecasting methodologies and data sources used across local authorities. This means there is the potential for local anomalies within the methodology. As with any forecast figures, there will be variation between the forecasts and the subsequent actual pupil numbers.
As with all forecasts, the level of accuracy is expected to reduce as forecasts are made further into the future. Care should be taken when using forecasts from the later years.
Uncertainty remains in the latest set of forecasts, due to the recent impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK’s exit from the EU, and migration from Afghanistan, Hong Kong and Ukraine on local authorities' pupil forecasts.
Forecasting accuracy is derived retrospectively, once actual pupil numbers for the forecast data become available. Most local authorities’ forecasting accuracy tends to be within +/-1% one year ahead. Forecasting accuracy measures are published for each local authority in the Local Authority School Place Scorecards.
Estimates of future school place demand (place planning)
The place planning estimates data includes the estimated number of additional school places still needed to meet future demand and estimated number of future unfilled places.
These estimates factor in existing capacity reported at 1 May 2022, additional capacity or planned removal of capacity from local authorities planned places, and additional capacity or removal of capacity provided through DFE internal projects. This capacity is then compared with the forecasts provided by the local authorities. This comparison of capacity and pupil forecasts is made at planning area level and year group level, i.e. places have to be available in the correct planning area and year group. Further information on how these estimates are calculated, how to interpret them and their limitations are available at School Place Planning Tables 2022: Technical guidance in supporting files.
Relationship with 'National Pupil Projections' publication
The national pupil forecast figures in the ‘School capacity’ release will differ to the National Pupil Projections published annually by the Department for Education due to methodological and timing reasons.
Local authorities supply the department with their own low-level planning area forecasts using their own methodologies that are based on a variety of local factors (including ONS data on live births, local migration patterns, pupil yield from housing developments and data provided by local health bodies). These are then added together to create the national figures shown in the ‘School capacity’ release.
National Pupil Projections are calculated at national level only and are based on ONS age-based projections, adjusted for school years; they also use historic population and birth data from ONS and the department’s school census figures.
The pupil forecasts within the ‘School capacity: Academic year 2021/22’ release are comparable to ‘National-level pupil projections: July 2022’ which was updated on 14 July 2022. The projections are based on new mid-2020 ONS national population projections published in January 2022, ONS monthly births data up to and including 2020 and School Census data up to and including January 2022. They provide national pupil forecasts by actual age whereas this publication provides local authority forecasts by national curriculum year group. Differences in the methodologies used by individual local authorities for pupil number forecasts mean that the national totals in the school capacity release will differ from the national-level projections, but the trends in both are broadly similar.
Although the trends are similar, the number of pupils is projected to peak one year earlier for primary and two years earlier for secondary in the national pupil projections. This difference is partly due to methodological differences mentioned above, and partly because there is an element of double counting in the school capacity national forecasts. This is because forecasts are provided by local authorities for the highest predicted point within the academic year. There will always be more demand when these forecasts are summed to a national level, compared to national pupil projection. Pupils move between local authorities throughout the academic year so could be double counted in the forecasts. Whereas national pupil projections are based on the number of pupils in schools in January, by age as at the previous 31st August, therefore should not be affected by this. pils in schools in January, by age as at the previous 31st August, therefore should not be affected by this.
Definitions
Capacity
The number of places the school can provide for. For local authority-maintained schools, capacity is defined by a physical measurement and calculated in the net capacity assessment.
For academies, including free schools, capacity is reported as per their funding agreement, subject to any information that the local authority holds in addition. The funding agreement provides the framework for the academy or free school to operate in. An academy’s funding agreement is usually based on the last net capacity assessment prior to conversion, but may have been updated if the school has expanded or school accommodation has been removed.
Where an academy has repeatedly operated an admission number higher than the capacity figure in the funding agreement, and the local authority is assured it will continue to do so, the academy’s capacity reported in the School Capacity Survey can be based on the published admission number (PAN).
There may be cases where the academy’s pupil admissions are higher than the funding agreement and published admission number. In this case the academy may well be able to physically accommodate the pupils, but the higher admission numbers would not have been used to determine school capacity if there was uncertainty as to whether the higher pupil numbers would continue.
Schools at or over capacity
A school is identified as at or in excess of capacity when their pupil number on roll is greater than or equal to capacity. This does not mean the school is overcrowded. The reported capacity figure may not reflect the entirety of a school’s physical space, and therefore in some cases the number of pupils on roll can be higher than the capacity figure, without the school being overcrowded.
Unfilled places
The number of unfilled places is the extent of capacity above number on roll. A school is identified as having unfilled places if the capacity is higher than the number of pupils on roll.
Pupil number on roll
Pupil number on roll is the number of sole registered and dual main registered pupils attending a school as reported via the school census.
Number on roll in this publication relates to pupils in reception year group and above.
Planning areas
Planning areas are groups of schools, often (but not exclusively) in a similar geographic area, reflecting patterns of provision. The planning areas for primary are different to the planning areas for secondary. All-through schools, middle-deemed primary schools and middle-deemed secondary schools may be assigned both a primary and a secondary planning area.
Local authority planned places
Additional places - permanent places that will not move through the school with a specific cohort.
Bulge places - temporary places used to accommodate large cohorts. They move through the school as the cohort progresses.
Places to remove - places local authorities plan to permanently remove from their school capacity.
Pupil forecasts
Number of pupils expected to be educated in state-funded mainstream schools, provided by local authorities. Primary forecasts include year groups reception to year six only, and secondary includes year groups seven to thirteen only.