Target number of trainees to start postgraduate initial teacher training (PGITT) in 2025/26, as estimated using the Teacher Workforce Model (TWM). This publication covers targets for postgraduate ITT, however, this is only one of many routes into the teacher workforce, all of which are considered when calculating targets. Other routes include undergraduate HEI courses, assessment only (AO), the upcoming teacher degree apprenticeship, returners, new to the state-funded sector entrants, and newly qualified entrants that defer entry into the profession (deferrers).
This workbook contains calculations of the 2025/26 PGITT targets. These targets have been calculated at a national level and cover all state-funded primary and secondary schools (including post-16 provision within such schools).
This document provides technical details and information to accompany the ‘calculation of 2025/26 PGITT targets’ Excel workbook. This includes the scope of the calculations, key terms, the calculation processes, and the assumptions used.
The Teacher Workforce Model is a national, stocks and flows model covering all state-funded primary (including maintained nurseries attached to schools) and secondary schools (including post-16 provision within such schools), academies, and free schools [1] in England.
The model estimates the future number of qualified teachers needed by such schools beyond 2023/24 for both primary and each secondary subject; and by considering the future number of teachers that will leave or enter, estimates the 2025/26 PGITT targets needed to supply sufficient numbers of teachers in 2026/27.
The TWM is updated annually to use the latest available data. The school workforce census (SWC) is the key data source for the model, providing information on the composition of the current (2023/24) teacher workforce, teacher inflows/outflows, and the curriculum taught in secondary schools.
The diagram below demonstrates the scale of different flows into and out of the secondary workforce in 2023/24. Whilst newly qualified entrants from PGITT and HPITT are a key aspect of teacher supply, they only comprised 3.7% of the 2023/24 workforce.
Inflows and outflows to the 2023/24 Secondary teacher workforce
NTSF = New to state-funded, NQE = Newly qualified entrants, PGITT = Postgraduate initial teacher training, HPITT = High potential initial teacher training. Other NQEs include undergraduate initial teacher training (UGITT), assessment only (AO), and recognition of overseas qualified status.
How did the Teacher Workforce Model estimate PGITT targets for 2025/26?
The text below provides a high-level explanation of how PGITT targets have been calculated this year. However, we also publish the calculations used to derive these targets as part of our ‘Calculation of 2025-26 PGITT targets’ Excel workbook. This can be found in the ‘additional supporting files’ section above.
Firstly, the TWM estimated future teacher demand from a starting 2023/24 teacher stock (as measured by the SWC in November 2023) by considering projections of pupil numbers and by estimating the national pupil:teacher ratios needed to meet demand as pupil numbers change.
The TWM then estimated the total number of teachers (in FTE, full time equivalent) needed to join the workforce in 2026/27 to fully meet this demand. The model focussed on entrants needed in 2026/27 as these would include the newly qualified entrants trained via PGITT in 2025/26.
This 2026/27 ‘entrant need’ comprised three parts:
The number of leavers expected in 2026/27; which the model assumes must be replaced by other teachers entering the workforce in 2026/27.
The extra number of teachers needed in 2026/27 because of increases in teacher demand compared to 2025/26 due to pupil number growth. Note, if pupil numbers are forecast to fall between 2025/26 and 2026/27 (as for primary), the model assumes that some teachers could leave without being replaced, as teacher demand would fall in line with pupil numbers.
Finally, the model assesses whether we have under recruited in the two ITT cycles prior to 2025/26. The model does not only consider the impacts of ITT recruitment, it also considers the impacts of teacher retention and the recruitment of teachers by other routes (e.g. returners). If the model estimates an overall under-supply impact, the model corrects for this by assuming that additional teachers should be recruited to counteract it.
The model takes this ‘entrant need’ and subtracts the number of entrants expected to join the workforce in 2026/27 through routes other than newly qualified entrants (NQEs) that have just completed PGITT. These include: returners, those teachers that are new to the state-funded school sector, and those NQEs that gained qualified teacher status via an assessment only route or via undergraduate ITT. The residual figure is the number of NQEs needed (in FTE form) in 2026/27 having been trained via PGITT in 2025/26.
Finally, the model upscales this number of 2026/27 NQEs into a 2025/26 PGITT target (in the form of trainee headcount) by:
Applying an FTE to headcount conversion rate that is specific to NQEs, to reflect that not all NQEs enter service working full-time, and
Applying ITT completion and post-ITT employment rates to reflect that not all individuals who commence ITT both complete it and gain employment as an NQE in state-funded schools in England within four to six months of completing training.
Further information on the specific steps of this process is provided in the next section.
Footnotes:
[1] Whilst special schools, pupil referral units, early years, independent schools, and further education/sixth form colleges are considered as being out of scope of the TWM, the PGITT targets set using the model do make an indirect provision for teachers required in those sectors.
In order to provide a sufficient supply of new teachers in 2026/27, it is estimated that 26,920 trainees are required to start postgraduate initial teacher training (PGITT) in the academic year 2025/26. This is a decrease of 6,435 (19.3%) on the 2024/25 postgraduate initial teacher training target and includes those to be recruited via the high potential initial teacher training (HPITT) programme.
The drivers behind changes in target vary by subject. The key factor as to whether the 2025/26 targets have increased or decreased for specific secondary subjects is the extent to which those targets have been adjusted to build in the impacts of recruitment being below target in the two ITT recruitment rounds before 2025/26. This is done via the under-supply adjustments [1], which account for approximately a sixth of the combined primary and secondary target.
There are many other factors that influence both the targets and recruitment adjustment, including (but not limited to): changes in teacher demand, supply forecasts, and both ITT completion and employment rates. The precise drivers behind target changes vary by subject; further details may be found both in this section and in the ‘further methodological details’ section of this webpage.
Secondary subjects
The 2025/26 target for secondary PGITT trainees increased by 980 across six subjects and decreased by 5,665 across twelve subjects, resulting in an overall decrease of 4,685 compared to 2024/25, from 23,955 to 19,270 (a 19.6% decrease overall).
This fall has been driven by more favourable supply forecasts this year. In particular, there have been recent boosts to ITT recruitment (including an increase of 2,000 secondary ITT trainees between 2023/24 and 2024/25) that is expected to deliver greater numbers of newly qualified teachers in the future. Additionally, the Department’s most recent pay award is expected to improve teacher retention levels and thus reduce future workforce losses.
As stated previously, as part of the multi-year spending review process, we are finalising our delivery approach to recruit 6,500 new teachers. Recruitment to PGITT is key to achieving this pledge and, moving forwards, we will closely monitor performance against our targets and ensure future targets align with our delivery plans.
Whilst the work to finalise our delivery plans is underway, this year’s targets have been set using the Department’s historical approach to setting demand. This assumes that secondary teacher numbers will continue to need to increase in response to growing demand from rising pupil numbers. However, whilst secondary pupil numbers are still growing, they are now growing more slowly; in advance of peaking around 2027/28. This acts to reduce the rate at which the workforce needs to grow and has helped lead to this year’s lower overall secondary target. Note – these pupil numbers differ to the National Pupil Projections as they include post-16 pupils and have slightly different coverage.
To assist in demonstrating how targets have fallen this year a worked example is provided below, for physics, to show how a variety of more favourable supply forecasts have combined to lower the need for PGITT trainees in 2025/26.
Note – we produce forecasts for all subjects individually, so whilst the leaver rate forecast might be more favourable this year for some subjects, it is less so for others.
Worked example – calculating the 2025/26 PGITT physics target:
The physics target this year has fallen from 2,250 to 1,410, a fall of 840 trainees (37%), there are three major drivers behind this fall:
More optimistic leaver rate trajectory - Last year, we forecasted that physics leaver rates would be 11.8% in 2023/24. They were actually recorded as being almost 1 percentage point lower than this (at 11.0%) in the 2023 November school workforce census. As a consequence, our leaver rate trajectory is more optimistic for physics this year, with rates just over 1 percentage point lower on average than last year. Over a 3-year period, this results in just under 300 additional teachers being retained. Given that for every 100 physics trainees, we get approximately 55 physics teachers, this equates to roughly 410 fewer trainees being required in 2025/26.
Returners - Last year, we forecasted that 351 returners would enter service for physics in 2023/24. According to the November 2023 school workforce census, 429 were actually recruited. Whilst we've been cautious when forecasting returner recruitment this year, we assume only 380 will be recruited in 2024/25, our forecasts suggest we will recruit 90 additional returners over the next 3 years compared to last year's forecasts. This reduces the target this year by approximately 130 trainees.
More favourable forecast for NQTs - ITT recruitment for physics has increased. Over the last two years (2022/23 to 2024/25), trainee numbers increased by 261 (a 61% increase). This growth has resulted in forecasts for both newly qualified entrants and teacher supply being more optimistic this year and has reduced the need for ITT trainees in 2025/26 by approximately 300 places.
Subject level, decrease in targets:
The subject with the largest percentage decrease in target this year is modern languages, decreasing by 1,080 trainees, from 2,540 to 1,460 (a 43% decrease). This is principally a result of a smaller under-supply adjustment being required this year as supply forecasts are more optimistic. This year, there are more favourable forecasts for modern languages retention, and for the recruitment of returners, new to state-funded sector entrants, and newly qualified entrants. We have also used a more optimistic ITT-NQE conversion rate for modern languages this year.
A key factor in the reduced modern languages target was growth in PGITT (including HPITT) recruitment between 2022/23 and 2024/25 of 390 trainees (55%).[2]
Targets have also decreased for maths (25%), biology (12%), chemistry (40%), physics (37%), computing (33%), English (15%), geography (1%), art & design (38%), business studies (25%), design & technology (38%), and music (31%).
All of these falls in target are a result of smaller under-supply adjustments being required this year as a result of more favourable supply forecasts.
Unlike last year, no under-supply adjustment was necessary this year for biology, chemistry, and English.
For almost all subjects with lower targets this year we have seen a boost in ITT recruitment between 2022/23 and 2024/25 and/or more favourable retention forecasts this year.
It is important to note that recruitment to postgraduate ITT in 2025/26 is not limited for any subject. Therefore, although targets for certain subjects may have decreased compared to last year, this does not necessarily mean there will be fewer trainees recruited since recruitment can exceed targets.
Subject level, increase in targets:
The subject with the largest percentage increase in target this year is classics which increased by 40 trainees, from 20 to 60 (a 200% increase).
For each subject we estimate ITT completion & employment rates using averages of recent relevant ITT performance profiles data; typically ignoring data that was skewed by the covid-19 pandemic.
If rates for a specific subject are more or less than 10% away from the secondary average, we typically apply a ’10% limit’ for allowable difference compared to this average.
Employment rates for classics are extremely low compared to other secondary subjects, e.g. below 40%.
Given this low value and the small sample size, we have historically used an assumed rate that was no more than 10% below our secondary average.
However, recent internal analysis suggests classics employment rates are extremely low because Latin teachers disproportionately enter employment in private schools.
To reflect this demand, we now use employment rates for classics that do not use a 10% limit.
Additionally, to reflect growing demand for Latin via the Latin Excellence Program we now assume that classics teaching hours will continue growing at 2 ppts per year for the next three years.
These two changes have sharply increased the target this year, narrowing the gap between the target and likely ITT demand.
Targets also increased for: history (9%), drama (38%), others[3] (19%), physical education (16%), and religious education (34%).
The history target has increased this year as there are less favourable forecasts for both returners and retention, and the ITT-NQT conversion rate for history is slightly lower this year. The religious education target has grown for similar reasons.
Targets for drama and others are higher because supply forecasts are less favourable this year and because recent PGITT recruitment levels have fallen.
Finally, the physical education target has increased because returner forecasts are less favourable this year and the conversion rate between ITT-NQT is lower this year.
Primary
The 2025/26 target for primary PGITT trainees has fallen by 1,750 compared to 2024/25, from 9,400 to 7,650 (an 18.6% decrease).
There are three key drivers of the reduction in target this year:
Teacher demand is falling more rapidly this year as pupil numbers fall more rapidly.
Retention forecasts are more optimistic this year.
Forecasts for the recruitment of deferrer newly qualified entrants are more favourable this year. Deferrer NQEs enter the workforce 4-16 months after completing ITT rather than within 4 months as ‘regular’ NQEs do.
To note:
In addition to the publication of the PGITT targets themselves, we have published the calculations used to derive these targets as part of our ‘Calculation of 2025-26 PGITT targets’ Excel workbook. This can be found in the ‘additional supporting files’ section above.
Footnotes:
[1] Under-supply adjustments calculated in the TWM assess the impacts of retention and recruitment via all routes. They use ITT recruitment data, and ITT completion & post-ITT employment rates to estimate the number of NQEs entering the workforce, having trained via PGITT, from the two ITT cycles immediately before 2025/26. It uses these figures, along with estimates for both the corresponding numbers of entrants into the stock via other routes (e.g. returners) and leavers, to estimate the size of the workforce in the target year. This figure is then compared to previously estimated teacher demand & supply, to identify if enough teachers were recruited/retained/re-entered to meet the needs of the system. If there is a supply shortage, an under-supply adjustment is made. The model does not apply an over-supply adjustment.
[2] The number of new entrants to ITT, and performance against these PGITT targets is reported in the annual ITT Census publication.
[3] ‘Others’ includes child development, citizenship, law, media studies, other social studies, other technology, politics, psychology, sociology, and social sciences among others.
To estimate future teacher demand, the model considers the Department’s National Pupil Projections by school phase and uses assumptions on how national pupil: teacher ratios (PTRs) will rise and fall with projected pupil numbers based upon historical trends.
The model assumes that as pupil numbers grow, PTRs will grow in line with the historical relationship between pupil numbers and PTRs. Similarly, the model assumes that PTRs will fall if pupil numbers fall.
The demand for individual secondary subjects is based upon the current split of teaching time across subjects as recorded within the school workforce census.
Pupil projections are a key driver of the future demand for new teachers. All else being constant, if pupil numbers start to grow, or begin to grow at a faster rate year-on-year, then teacher numbers would also need to grow at a faster rate. Similarly, if pupil numbers were to fall, or to grow at a slower rate year-on-year, this would lead to a fall in the demand for new teachers.
Therefore, the TWM is driven by the year-on-year change rate in pupil numbers, rather than the raw pupil numbers themselves.
The primary pupil population is forecast to fall by 1.2% in 2026/27, compared to 0.7% in 2023/24. As pupil numbers fall more rapidly, the demand for teachers will also fall more rapidly. This has been a key driver of recent falls in the primary target.
By contrast, secondary pupil numbers are still projected to be growing year-on-year by 2026/27. However, they are only projected to grow by 0.2% in 2026/27 compared to 1.1% in 2023/24. In other words, whilst pupil numbers will still be growing, they will do so at a slower rate than in preceding years.
Whilst the model still assumes that the secondary workforce needs to grow with pupil numbers, it assumes it can grow less rapidly year-on-year because pupil numbers aren’t growing as quickly.
In isolation of other drivers, this acts to reduce the demand for secondary PGITT trainees in 2025/26.
Note – these pupil numbers differ to the National Pupil Projections as they include post-16 pupils and have slightly different coverage.
Estimating future teacher leaver numbers
The TWM estimates the number of qualified teachers who will leave the workforce between 2023/24 and 2026/27 and assumes that all leavers will need to be replaced by teachers entering the workforce.
The TWM uses forecasts of leaver rates, as the absolute number of leavers will vary depending on the size of the workforce. Separate forecasts are produced for leavers aged over and under 55 years old respectively, reflecting that the likelihood of teachers leaving service is driven by different factors for older and younger teachers. Separate forecasts are produced for primary and each individual secondary subject, reflecting differences in teacher retention levels between the teacher cohorts of different subjects.
Observations from the most recent years of school workforce census leaver rates data:
In 2020/21, there was an unprecedented decrease in the number of teachers leaving the state-funded sector, with leaver rates falling to the lowest level observed since the school workforce census started in 2010. This fall was likely because of the impact of covid-19.
In 2021/22, both primary and secondary leaver rates increased slightly but remained below their pre-pandemic levels. This was likely to be a result of the continuing effects of the covid-19 pandemic.
In 2022/23, both primary and secondary leaver rates increased to be back in line with pre-pandemic levels.
Finally, in 2023/24, the latest year for which data was available [1] [2], both primary and secondary leaver rates fell very slightly on the previous year.
Going forward, we currently project that leaver rates will fall slightly.
To develop estimates of future leaver rates, we accounted for the latest (as of December 2024) economic forecasts, and any other known factors that might impact on future teacher numbers not yet reflected in the baseline (2023/24) data. For example, we factored in the effect of teacher pay relative to pay in the wider economy and the impact on retention.
The model also accounts for existing teachers that stay in service but reduce their working hours between years; this reduction in capacity is expressed in terms of FTE teachers that need to be replaced [3].
The TWM estimates the number of qualified entrants who will enter the workforce between 2023/24 and 2026/27. As with leaver numbers, future entrant numbers are forecast in the form of FTE (full time equivalent) rather than headcount, reflecting differences in working pattern between different types of inflow/outflow.
Both the number of returners (those teachers returning to the state-funded school sector in England) and those who are new to the sector (including newly trained teachers who do not join the workforce immediately after ITT) are estimated using forecasts that consider the latest workforce and economic data as of December 2024.
The model then estimates the number of teachers who will enter service having just gained qualified teacher status (QTS) via either the assessment only route or ITT using the latest ITT recruitment data. As some trainees will not complete ITT and immediately enter service after training, assumed ITT completion and post-ITT employment rates are applied to the numbers of trainees previously recruited to estimate the number of newly qualified entrants (NQEs).
Adjustment to counter under-supply from previous ITT rounds
One of the key drivers behind changes in 2025/26 PGITT targets for specific subjects is an adjustment included within the TWM to build in the estimated impact of recruitment being below target in the two ITT rounds prior to 2025/26, as well as forecasted under-supply in other routes into and out of teaching.
There are many factors that influence both the targets and under-supply adjustment, including (but not limited to): changes in teacher demand, supply forecasts for other routes into teaching, and both ITT completion and employment rates.
As well as considering the impact of PGITT/HPITT recruitment, we also consider the wider recruitment of teachers that are newly qualified via other routes such as Undergraduate HEI courses and assessment only (AO). Additionally, we account for the recruitment of teachers that return having previously left the state-funded teaching sector (returners), and those that were already qualified but are new to the sector.
The model is holistic in the way it is influenced by both leaver rates and forecasted recruitment from other routes, and factors all these supply factors into the decision to make an under-supply adjustment (or not).
The process to assess whether to make an adjustment is shown below:
The TWM uses ITT recruitment data, and ITT completion and post-ITT employment rates to estimate the number of NQEs entering the workforce having trained via PGITT (both mainstream PGITT and high potential ITT routes) from the two ITT cycles immediately before 2025/26, for primary and each secondary subject.
The model uses these PGITT NQE figures for 2024/25 and 2025/26 respectively, along with estimates for both the corresponding numbers of entrants into the stock via other routes (e.g. returners) and leavers, to estimate the size of the workforce in 2025/26. This 2025/26 stock size is then compared to the previously estimated teacher demand for that year to identify whether we have recruited the teachers needed from the two PGITT rounds prior to 2025/26, also accounting for both retention and wider recruitment.
If this comparison shows that we have under recruited in specific subjects, then an adjustment is applied by increasing the 2025/26 PGITT target for those subjects. No adjustment is required for subjects where there is no under-recruitment impact. This action is taken as the recruitment impacts of the 2023/24 and 2024/25 PGITT cycles had not yet fed into the most recently published SWC from November 2023 which we use as the baseline in the model.
This year, the two ITT recruitment rounds that were relevant for developing 2025/26 PGITT targets were those for 2023/24 and 2024/25. Last year, the 2024/25 targets were developed by considering the workforce impacts resulting from the 2022/23 and 2023/24 ITT recruitment rounds.
As with last year, this adjustment has been a key driver of the subject level changes in PGITT targets this year:
An increased adjustment this year was a key driver of the increased targets this year for drama, others, and religious education.
Conversely, a smaller adjustment this year was a key driver of the lower targets this year for maths, biology, chemistry, physics, computing, English, modern languages, geography, art & design, business studies, design & technology, and music.
Footnotes:
[1] To note for modelling purposes, within the TWM we assume that those recorded in the SWC as ‘leavers’ in 2022/23 (the majority leaving service in the Summer of 2023) are leavers in 2023/24. This ensures that the cohort aligns within target calculations to the 2023/24 entrants who will mostly be those hired to replace them in September 2023.
[3] Some existing teachers that stay in service increase their working hours between years. However, the model estimates and accounts for the net impact of teachers changing their working hours between years, which is a reduction in FTE teacher numbers.
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