Data Collection
The initial teacher training (ITT) census is collected annually and counts trainees registered on a course on the second Wednesday in October. For 2021/22 this was Wednesday 13 October 2021.
This statistical release presents detailed provisional data for 2021/22 and revised data for 2020/21.
For 2021/22 we received data from 232 providers in England comprising 163 School Centred ITTs and 69 HEIs. The final data was extracted on 21st November 2021.
Quality assurance
Data for the ITT census were completed, reviewed and signed-off by providers. The data collection and publication team within DfE carried out additional quality checks and data validations throughout the data entry process. After the data was extracted, the production team undertook a further quality assurance process to recode and correct some of the data.
This quality assurance process identified a small number of issues. These, along with the solutions that have been implemented, are outlined below:
- A small number of duplicate trainees were identified and removed during the quality assurance process. Data were then validated and signed-off by the production team.
2020/21 revised data:
A series of checks were carried out on the quality of the data, but no significant amendments were required.
2021/22 provisional data:
- Due to technical complications, one provider submitted high-level, aggregated data only, which did not include data on characteristics, and is therefore not included in the characteristic statistical summaries. Final data, including these characteristics, will be published in a subsequent publication.
- Due to missing degree-level data, the production team carried out an additional data linking exercise to ensure better coverage of the degree classifications variable, which has improved data quality.
- Subject level data for sciences, for one provider, was remapped following a data update, which contained higher resolution data with improved quality.
Trainees excluded from this release
Please see the main methodology for further details on filters and the full list of trainees included/excluded from the statistical release.
Self-funded trainees
There are a number of trainees excluded from this analysis who may be working towards QTS, or another teaching qualification. This release does not include:
Self-funded trainees – We exclude trainees that the provider has indicated are not eligible for UK financial support. This includes overseas trainees not entitled to UK financial support, and trainees on the School Direct salaried route undertaking a non-DfE funded subject and/or employed at a private school. This year, 661 self-funded trainees were excluded compared to 618 self-funded trainees excluded from the revised figures for 2020/21.
Teacher Workforce Model (TWM)
For entrants starting in 2021/22, the department’s annual postgraduate ITT targets (PGITT) have been chosen, for the first time, using analysis from the newly developed Teacher Workforce Model (TWM). The TWM replaces the previously used Teacher Supply Model (TSM).
Whilst the new model is also a stock and flow model and holds many similarities with its predecessor, the TSM[1], there are methodological differences. The most important difference in the TWM is the uplift of PGITT targets to attempt to counter the estimated impacts from under-recruitment in the two PGITT recruitment cycles before 2021/22 (ITT2019 and ITT2020) that have not yet been reflected within the School Workforce Census[2] data. This change is a key driver of the higher targets this year for physics, design & technology, business studies and the group of subjects categorised as ‘other’[3]. For example, the target for Physics has increased by 89%, from 1,336 to 2,530, primarily because the 2021/22 target is uplifted to account for the impacts of under-recruitment in the previous two ITT cycles. In subjects where an over-recruitment within the two PGITT recruitment cycles was estimated, this was ignored; in other words, targets for those subjects were not ‘deflated’ because of previous over-recruitment. The TSM did not account for the two recruitment cycles that have not yet fed into the SWC data, as the TWM now does.
The TWM underpins the selection of PGITT targets by considering changes in future teacher demand, and estimating both future teacher recruitment and future teacher retention. To estimate future teacher demand, the model considers the Department’s National Pupil Projections[4] by school phase and uses assumptions on how the pupil: teacher ratio will rise and fall with projected pupil numbers based on historic trends. The demand for individual secondary subjects is based upon the current split of teaching time across subjects as recorded within the School Workforce Census and the estimated impact of relevant curriculum policies. For the selection of 2021/22 PGITT targets the relevant year of teacher demand to consider is 2022/23, as this is the year that 2021/22 PGITT trainees would first enter the workforce as newly qualified teachers (NQTs).
In considering future teacher recruitment and retention, the model estimates the number of teachers that will both enter and leave the workforce in the future. Entrants include returning teachers, teachers that are new to the state-funded sector (including newly trained teachers who do not join the workforce immediately after ITT), teachers gaining qualified teacher status (QTS) via the Assessment Only route, and NQTs trained via undergraduate ITT. The model also includes an estimate of NQTs entering the workforce following PGITT (both mainstream PGITT and High Potential ITT routes) in the two ITT cycles before 2021/22, therefore accounting for any potential shortfall resulting from under-recruitment in these two cycles. Estimates of teachers gained via ITT take account of completion and employment rates to reflect that not all trainees complete their course and enter the workforce immediately.
The number of teachers leaving the workforce are estimated using forecasted leaver rates, as the number of leavers can vary depending on the size of the workforce, with separate forecasted rates for those leaving via retirement and those that leave for other reasons. The model also accounts for teachers who do not leave service but do reduce their working hours, to reflect changes in the overall FTE (full-time equivalent) of the workforce that are not captured within the leaver estimates.
All modelling estimates take into account the latest economic and ITT recruitment data as of Autumn 2020.
Footnotes:
[1] TSM and initial teacher training allocations: 2020 to 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
[2] The School Workforce Census is a key source of data used in the TWM, providing information on the current and historical number of teachers in the workforce, the number that leave and enter, and the subjects taught. The latest statistical release can be found here: National statistics overview: School workforce in England: November 2020 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
[3] ‘Other’ is comprised of a variety subjects, including media and communication studies, social studies, psychology
[4] National pupil projections, Reporting Year 2021 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)
