Academic Year 2021/22

Initial Teacher Training Census

Published
Last updated
See all updates (4) for Academic Year 2021/22
  1. Updates were made to the wording presented in the third bullet point in section 'new entrants to postgraduate ITT by characteristic'.

  2. Updates were made to the percentage range presented in the final bullet point in section 'new entrants to postgraduate ITT by degree class on entry '.

  3. A correction was made to the column headings in table 10 of the ITT Census 202122 Provider Tables file. ‘Disability declared’ had been mislabelled as ‘No disability declared’ and vice versa.

  4. The provider table has been amended to ensure the characteristics data now relates to postgraduates only.

Introduction

National and provider-level information about the numbers and characteristics of new entrants to Initial Teacher Training (ITT) in England in the training year 2021/22; and 2021/22 PGITT targets. The statistical release also includes information on numbers and characteristics of new entrants to early years ITT. 

Read statistical summaries, view charts and tables, and download data files. 


Headline facts and figures - 2021/22

Explore data and files

All data used in this release is available as open data for download


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All supporting files

All supporting files from this release are listed for individual download below:

List of all supporting files
  • ITT Census 2021/22 Provider Tables (xlsx, 534 Kb)
    More details for file ITT Census 2021/22 Provider Tables
    Table 10: This provider level table contains the number of both postgraduate and undergraduate new entrants to ITT at provider level by trainee characteristics. The data in this table covers 2020/21 (revised) and 2021/22 (provisional). Table 11: This provider level table contains the number of both postgraduate and undergraduate new entrants to ITT at provider level by ITT route. The data in this table covers 2020/21 (revised) and 2021/22 (provisional). Table 12: This provider level table contains the number of both postgraduate and undergraduate new entrants to ITT at provider level by ITT subject. The data in this table covers 2020/21 (revised) and 2021/22 (provisional).

About these statistics

This statistical release provides provisional figures on the number of new entrants who have started an initial teacher training (ITT) programme in England in 2021/22 by school subject, training route, training region and a range of trainee demographic factors. This statistical release includes revised data for 2020/21.

These statistics cover those training to teach via both postgraduate and undergraduate routes, as well as a separate section on those undertaking Early Years Initial Teacher Training (EYITT).

Throughout this statistical release, we compare statistics with both the 2020/21 and 2019/20 ITT census statistical releases as it is important to consider trends across the longer time series. The 2020/21 training year and recruitment cycle were atypical, as they were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The following tables are included:

  • national tables for the training years 2019/20 to 2021/22 by route, phase, subject, region and trainee characteristics (main postgraduate and undergraduate routes)
  • provider-level tables for the training years 2019/20 to 2021/22 by route and phase (main postgraduate and undergraduate routes)
  • a national table for the training years 2019/20 to 2021/22 by route and trainee characteristics (EYITT route).

The number of new entrants who have started postgraduate ITT is compared to the Department’s annual postgraduate ITT trainee targets. Targets are set for each subject and include both mainstream postgraduate trainees and High Potential ITT trainees[1]. This year’s 2021/22 targets are the first ones to be set using the Teacher Workforce Model, they can be seen in Table 1.

 


Footnotes

[1] High Potential ITT trainees, formerly reported as Teach First.

Background on mainstream initial teacher training and postgraduate ITT targets

Mainstream ITT

To become a qualified teacher in England, trainees typically complete a programme of Initial Teacher Training (ITT). This provides them with training, mentoring and teaching practice in schools, and leads to the award of Qualified Teacher Status (QTS) for successful trainees.

There are several pathways into teaching which include an undergraduate route, over a three or four-year course, and postgraduate routes which normally run for one year full-time. Postgraduate fee-funded courses can be undertaken through a higher education institution (HEI), or via a group of schools delivering a school-centred initial teacher training (SCITT) programme or a School Direct fee-funded programme. Postgraduate salaried routes include the School Direct salaried programme, the High Potential ITT programme[1] and, since 2018/19, the postgraduate teaching apprenticeship (PGTA). Early Years ITT, a non-mainstream route, is covered in separate sections below.

At HEIs, the university or college delivers the pedagogy of teaching supplemented by placements in schools. Successful trainees are awarded QTS and a postgraduate certificate in education (PGCE). On school-led routes, trainees are placed in a school from the first day of training. Most school-led routes also include a PGCE as many school-led providers will pair with an HEI.

Postgraduate ITT targets

In previous years, the Department for Education (DfE) has used the Teacher Supply Model (TSM)[2] to estimate the number of trainees needed to start postgraduate ITT each year, in order to provide sufficient numbers of qualified teachers in the year after their training is completed. The TSM has now been replaced by the newly-developed Teacher Workforce Model (TWM) and targets are being published, in the first instance, here alongside the actual recruitment figures. Caution should be taken when comparing the subject-level PGITT targets set for 2021/22 to previous targets produced by the TSM, as there are methodological changes between the two models. The most important difference is the uplift of PGITT targets to account for under-recruitment in the two PGITT recruitment cycles before 2021/22 (ITT2019 and ITT2020), not yet reflected in the School Workforce Census[3] data. This change is a key driver of the higher targets for physics, design & technology, business studies and the group of subjects categorised as ‘other’[4]. For more information on the TWM, see the year specific methodology section.

Whilst the methodological changes in the TWM have impacted targets for individual secondary subjects by varying extents, the overall target is still in line with the previous TSM target. The target for secondary postgraduate ITT trainees is 20,230, which is 745 more than the previous target. The target for primary postgraduate ITT trainees is 10,800, which is 667 fewer than the previous target. Targets have increased for seven secondary subjects; the largest increases (as a percentage) are for the group of subjects categorised as ‘other’[4], physics, business studies, and design & technology. Targets have decreased for eleven secondary subjects; the largest decreases (as a percentage) are for modern foreign languages, biology, and English. It is relevant to note that recruitment to postgraduate ITT in 2021/22 has not been limited for any subject except physical education. Therefore, although targets for certain subjects may have decreased compared to last year, this does not mean there will necessarily be fewer trainees recruited as a consequence.

 


Footnotes:

[1] High Potential ITT trainees, formerly reported as Teach First.

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training#teacher-supply-model-and-itt-allocations 

[3] The School Workforce Census is a key source of data used in the TWM, providing information on the current and historical number of teachers in the workforce, the number that leave and enter, and the subjects taught. The latest statistical release can be found here: National statistics overview: School workforce in England: November 2020 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

[4] ‘Other’ is comprised of a variety subjects, including media and communication studies, social studies, psychology.

New entrants to postgraduate initial teacher training by subject

Summary

In 2021/22 we have seen 31,233 new entrants to postgraduate ITT, this is 101% of the new postgraduate ITT target of 31,030 new entrants. Broadly, we have seen a fall in new entrants from the 2020/21 training year[1] [2][3], but an increase from 2019/20. In 2020/21, we saw an unprecedented increase in new entrants to ITT compared to the previous year, which was likely to be a direct result of the impact of COVID-19. To set the latest data in context comparisons are also made with 2019/20 throughout.

Secondary

  • In 2021/22, 82% of the overall secondary PGITT target was achieved (16,571 new entrants), down from 103% in 2020/21[3] (20,014 new entrants), and 83% in 2019/20 (16,701 new entrants).
  • ITT providers recruited 5,908 postgraduate trainees in secondary STEM[4] subjects (representing 73% of the 8,070 PGITT target). Whilst two of the five underlying STEM targets were met: biology[5](117% of target) and chemistry (105% of target), other STEM targets were missed. In maths, the performance against the target increased consistently from 2019/20, despite the number of trainees decreasing when compared to 2020/21. This is because the decrease in maths target offsets the decrease in trainee numbers. In physics, there was an increase in new entrants compared to both 2020/21 and 2019/20, despite a decrease in performance driven by an increase in the target this year. Computing saw a 3% fall in the number of trainees compared to 2020/21, but an increase of 23% on 2019/20 entrants. 
  • ITT providers recruited 11,562 postgraduate trainees in secondary EBacc[6] subjects (representing 88% of the 13,120 PGITT target) and 5,009 postgraduate trainees in secondary non-EBacc subjects (70% of the 7,110 target).
  • PGITT targets were exceeded for history (199%), physical education (164%), drama (157%), art & design (140%), English (118%), biology (117%), chemistry (105%) and Classics (143%). 
  • The largest decreases in reported performance against PGITT targets between the 2020/21 and 2021/22 training years, have been seen for music (72% of target recruited), business studies (45%), design & technology (23%), physics (22%) and other[7] subjects (25%). This is driven in part by a decrease in the number of trainees but also largely, in an increase in target[3]
  • Geography has continued to see a decrease in the number of new entrants from 2019/20, falling in both 2020/21 and 2021/22. 
  • Comparing the number of 2021/22 new entrants with the 2019/20 data, which is before the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, we see increases across 11 out of the 18 subjects.

Primary

  • For primary, recruitment performance increased from 125% in 2020/21[3] to 136% in 2021/22. This was due to a combination of a 2% increase in the numbers recruited (from 14,380 in 2020/21 to 14,662 new entrants in 2021/2) and a 6% decrease in the postgraduate primary target[3] (from 11,467 in 2020/21 to 10,800 in 2021/22).

 


Footnotes

[1] The 2020/21 training year and recruitment cycle was atypical as it was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and lockdown in England. 

[2] 2020/21 figures have now been revised. 

[3] Some caution should be taken when comparing the 2021/22 PGITT targets with the 2020/21 PGITT targets due to the introduction of the TWM and change to the modelling methodology. See methodology sections for more details.

[4]  STEM here includes biology, chemistry, computing, mathematics and physics.

[5] 2021/22 saw changes to bursaries and scholarships offered, further details are published in the 2021/22 funding manual: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/initial-teacher-training-itt-bursary-funding-manual/initial-teacher-training-bursaries-funding-manual-2021-to-2022-academic-year

[6] EBacc here includes English, mathematics, modern foreign languages, physics, biology, chemistry, history, geography, computing and classics.

[7] ‘Other’ is comprised of a variety of subjects, including media and communication studies, social studies, psychology.

 

New entrants to ITT by routes into teaching

Summary

In 2021/22, there were a total of 17,318 postgraduate new entrants on school-led routes, making up 55% of the total, up from 53% last year, and the same as we saw in 2019/20. The numbers training via HEIs decreased to 13,915, making up the remaining 45%. The number of HEI new entrants saw a 14% decrease compared to 2020/21 and a 9% increase compared to 2019/20. Despite the decrease in HEI trainees compared to 2020/21, the proportion of new entrants training via postgraduate fee-funded routes rose by 2 percentage points, to 90%, driven by the increases seen in numbers of School Centred ITT new entrants and the decrease in numbers of School Direct (salaried) entrants[1].

School Centred ITT and Post Graduate Teaching Apprenticeship are the only routes to see increases in trainees compared to 2020/21. The largest decrease from 2020/21 to 2021/22 occurred in the School Direct (salaried) route (down to 783 trainees). The School Direct (salaried) route, along with High Potential ITT saw the only decreases in number of new entrants when compared to 2019/20[2].

There were 5,836 new entrants to undergraduate ITT, a decrease (2%) from 5,983 in 2020/21, but an increase (20%) from 4,882 in 2019/20.


Footnotes

[1] 2021/22 saw changes to bursaries and scholarships offered, further details are published in the 2021/22 funding manual: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/initial-teacher-training-itt-bursary-funding-manual/initial-teacher-training-bursaries-funding-manual-2021-to-2022-academic-year

[2]The 2020/21 training year and recruitment cycle was atypical as it was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and lockdown in England. 

New entrants to postgraduate ITT by characteristics

Summary

  • The characteristics of new entrants with respect to gender has remained broadly similar since 2015/16 with 28% being male in 2021/22. 16% of primary postgraduate trainees were male compared to 39% of secondary postgraduate trainees in 2021/22, both similar to previous years.
  • The proportion aged under 25 has increased since 2019/20, when there were 50% of trainees aged under 25, to 51% in 2020/21 and 52% in 2021/22.
  • In 2021/22, 21% of postgraduate trainees who declared their ethnic group reported belonging to a minority ethnic group (excluding White minorities), a slight increase from 19% seen in 2020/21. Prior to 2020/21, this percentage had steadily increased over time, up from 14% in 2015/16[1]. This compares to 14% of people in the general population of England and Wales belonging to a minority ethnic group (excluding White minorities) (Census 2011)[2].
  • Of postgraduate trainees who declared their ethnic group[3], there were 79% White, 11% Asian, 4% Black, 3% mixed ethnicity and 2% Other[4], broadly similar proportions to 2020/21. This compares with approximately 86%, 8%, 3% 2%, and 1% respectively, of the population belonging to these ethnic groups in England and Wales (Census 2011).
  • In 2021/22, 13% of postgraduate trainees declared a disability, this is the same as the revised 2020/21 and 2019/20 figures. Prior to 2019/20, this rate had increased over time, up from 8% in 2015/16[5].
  • In 2021/22, around 1% of all postgraduate trainees were on a part-time ITT route, with the highest proportion undertaking School Direct (fee-funded) (29%) and HEI routes (27%).


Footnotes

[1]Note the number of unknowns seen in the ethnicity of the trainees. The number of trainees with unknown ethnicity increased to 3,231 in 2021/22 from 1,710 in 2020/21, and 1,611 from 2019/20.

[2] https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-by-ethnicity/national-and-regional-populations/population-of-england-and-wales/latest 

[3] In 2021/22 provisional data, we have seen an increase in the number of ‘unknown’ ethnicities. More complete data will be included in subsequent revisions where possible. 

[4] Other ethnicity includes Arab and Other ethnic background.

[5] Note the large number of trainees with unknown disability status. This has increased to 3,304 in 2021/22 from 384 in 2020/21 and from 672 in 2019/20, therefore please consider the impact of the number of unknowns when considering data trends.

 

Characteristics of postgraduate entrants to ITT for 2021/22

  Total postgraduate new entrants to ITT
Age groupUnder 2516,199
25 and over14,745
Disability statusDeclared3,860
None declared24,069
GenderMale8,790
Female21,842
Study ModeFull-Time30,640
Part-Time304

Footnotes

  1. Characteristics data presented for Disability and Gender excludes unknown's (where data has not been provided) and so may not sum to the total number of new entrants.
  2. 2021/22 data was extracted on 21st November 2021.
  3. Figures for 2021/22 are provisional and are subject to change.
  4. Age groups: are based on the ages of new entrants on the day of the census, this is 13 October 2021 for 2021/22 trainees. Ages are rounded down to the nearest year, for example, a trainee aged 29.5 is placed in the 25-29 age group.
  5. Full time: Includes a small number of trainees on abridged courses. Abridged courses are intensive full-time courses allowing trainees to achieve qualified teacher status in a shorter timeframe, typically two terms.
  6. Due to technical complications, one provider submitted high-level, aggregated data only, which did not include data on characteristics, and is therefore not included in this table. Final data, including these characteristics, will be published in a subsequent publication.

New entrants to postgraduate ITT by nationality

Summary

  • In 2021/22, there were 30,323 postgraduate new entrants to ITT whose nationality was known (97% of all postgraduate new entrants). Of these, 93% were UK nationals, 4% were European Economic Area (EEA) nationals[1], and the remaining 2% were nationals of other countries. These proportions are broadly in line with data in 2020/21 and 2019/20, with a slight decrease in the proportion of EEA nationals, down from 5% in 2019/20 and 2020/21, to 4% in 2021/22.
  • The proportion of postgraduate trainees who are UK nationals is lower for EBacc subjects than non-EBacc subjects and this is mostly driven by modern foreign languages where only 67% of trainees are UK nationals (a 1 percentage point increase from 2020/21).
  • As well as trainee teachers from overseas, qualified teachers from specific overseas countries can be awarded qualified teacher status (QTS) with no further ITT in England. Figures for these teachers are now published separately as management information in the Teacher Regulation Agency annual report and accounts[2]


Footnotes

[1] EEA National: here relates to individuals with a European Union, European Economic Area or included in the single market – this includes Swiss nationality. The UK is not included in these figures.

[2] Teacher Regulation Agency Annual Report and Accounts 2020-2021 (page 15 and Annex A): https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1002728/TRA_Annual_Report_2020-21.pdf 

New entrants to postgraduate ITT by degree class on entry

Summary

  • The percentage of new entrants to postgraduate programmes with a first class or 2:1 in their first degree has increased from 75% in 2020/21 to 77% in 2021/22. This increase has been driven by an increase in the percentage of postgraduate new entrants to ITT with a first (up from 20% in 2019/20 to 23% in 2020/21, and 26% in 2021/22), continuing the recent trend.
  • The percentage with a 2:1 (52% in 2021/22) is the same as in 2020/21 and down from 54% in 2019/20.
  • The proportion of entrants holding a 2:1 or higher varies by route. In particular, 93% of high potential ITT trainees had a 2:1 or higher, compared to a range of 75% to 77% for other routes.

New entrants to postgraduate ITT by region

Summary

  • In 2021/22, the number of new entrants to ITT dropped across all regions[1] except London, which saw a 6% increase. However, these regional changes have been affected by a restructuring of data, where all High Potential ITT trainees are now reported under the Teach First provider - this provider is located in London. In 2020/21 only 35% of HPITT trainees were situated in London. With the exception of London, the regional variation in new entrants is broadly in line with previous years. In 2021/22, the North East had the lowest proportion of new entrants to ITT (4%) and London had the highest (23%); it is important to also consider the variation in population size across England.

 

Footnotes:

[1] Government Office Region: Region is determined by the location of the provider, which is not necessarily where the trainee is located.

Background on early years initial teacher training (EYITT)

Early years initial teacher training (EYITT) provides specialist training covering the education and care of children from birth to the age of five and is distinct from primary education. Training is delivered by accredited ITT providers[1].

Successful EYITT trainees are awarded Early Years Teacher Status (EYTS). They are not eligible for the award of Qualified Teacher Status (QTS) and are therefore not qualified to lead classes in a maintained[2] nursery or school, unless they also hold QTS[3]. Early years teachers can lead teaching in all other early years settings in the private, voluntary and independent (PVI) sector. 

There are several routes leading to the award of EYTS. Trainees can undertake an undergraduate course, which allows them to earn a degree in an early childhood related subject and EYTS, normally over a three year period full-time. Postgraduate EYITT courses can be undertaken through the graduate entry route (full time study, which includes the early years School Direct route) or the graduate employment based route (a one-year part-time route for graduates working in an early years setting[4]). Postgraduate EYITT normally runs for one year full-time. 


Footnotes

[1] Providers graded by the Office for Standards in Education, Children’s Services and Skills (Ofsted) as ‘requires improvement’, or a lower quality, cannot provide EYITT.

[2] ‘Maintained’ refers to schools or nurseries where funding and oversight is provided through the local authority.

[3] Trainees with EYTS can work as level 3 support workers in a maintained nursery or school. They can work as unqualified teachers in maintained schools or academies but this status is dependent on the school.

[4] Trainees can also undertake an assessment only route to earn EYTS. This is designed for graduates with experience of working with children from birth to five, who are able to demonstrate the Teacher’s Standards (Early Years) without further training; for example, overseas trained early years teachers. The EYITT assessment only route is not included in this statistical release.

New entrants to early years initial teacher training (EYITT)

Summary

  • There were 477 new entrants to EYITT in 2021/22. This is a 18% decrease in new entrants compared to 2020/2021 (revised) when the figure was 581, but an increase compared to 2019/20[1], when there were 357 new entrants to EYITT.
  • In 2021/22, 97% of new entrants to EYITT took the postgraduate route, which is a 1 percentage point increase on 2020/21 revised data (96%).
  • Excluding those whose degree class is unknown[2], 72% of 2021/22 new entrants to postgraduate EYITT held a first class or 2:1 degree, compared to 61% in 2020/21 and 60% 2019/20[3].
  • Excluding those with unknown ethnicity, 16% of new postgraduate entrants to EYITT in 2021/22 belonged to a minority ethnic[4] (excluding white minorities) group, down from 19% in 2020/21[5].


Footnotes

[1]The 2020/21 training year and recruitment cycle was atypical as it was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and lockdown in England. 

[2] 58 trainees had degree class recorded as ’Unknown’ in 2021/22, compared with 12 trainees in 2020/21.

[3] Due to small numbers, and an increase in unknowns, these figures should be treated with some caution.

[4] Minority ethnic includes Asian, Black, Mixed ethnicity and Other Ethnicity groups.

[5] 2020/21 figures are now revised.

Characteristics of postgraduate new entrants to early years initial teacher training, 2020/21 (revised) and 2021/22 (provisional)

 
 
2020/212021/22
Age GroupAged under 2523%25%
Aged 25 and over77%75%
Disability StatusDisability declared8%9%
No disability declared92%91%
GenderMale3%3%
Female97%96%
Other1%1%
Ethnic GroupAsian ethnicity11%8%
Black ethnicity5%4%
Mixed ethnicity3%3%
Other ethnicity1%1%
White ethnicity81%84%

Footnotes

  1. 2020/21 and 2021/22 data was extracted on 21st November 2021. 2019/20 data was extracted on 13th November 2020.
  2. Figures for 2021/22 are provisional and are subject to change. Figures for 2019/20 and 2020/21 have been revised.
  3. Warning: percentages have been rounded and therefore may not sum to 100%.
  4. Age groups, mean age and median age: are based on the ages of new entrants on the day of the census, this is 13 October 2021 for 2021/22 trainees. Ages are rounded down to the nearest year, for example, a trainee aged 29.5 is placed in the 25-29 age group.
  5. Disability Status: Data is based on known cases and exclude those where disability status is unknown, therefore please consider the impact of the number of unknowns when considering data trends.
  6. Other Gender: includes both unknown gender and those trainees who do not identify as male or female, but identify as Other gender, therefore please consider the impact of the number of unknowns when considering data trends.

2021/22 year specific methodology

Data Collection  

The initial teacher training (ITT) census is collected annually and counts trainees registered on a course on the second Wednesday in October. For 2021/22 this was Wednesday 13 October 2021.

This statistical release presents detailed provisional data for 2021/22 and revised data for 2020/21.

For 2021/22 we received data from 232 providers in England comprising 163 School Centred ITTs and 69 HEIs. The final data was extracted on 21st November 2021. 

Quality assurance 

Data for the ITT census were completed, reviewed and signed-off by providers. The data collection and publication team within DfE carried out additional quality checks and data validations throughout the data entry process. After the data was extracted, the production team undertook a further quality assurance process to recode and correct some of the data.

This quality assurance process identified a small number of issues. These, along with the solutions that have been implemented, are outlined below:

  • A small number of duplicate trainees were identified and removed during the quality assurance process. Data were then validated and signed-off by the production team.

2020/21 revised data:

A series of checks were carried out on the quality of the data, but no significant amendments were required.

2021/22 provisional data:

  • Due to technical complications, one provider submitted high-level, aggregated data only, which did not include data on characteristics, and is therefore not included in the characteristic statistical summaries. Final data, including these characteristics, will be published in a subsequent publication.
  • Due to missing degree-level data, the production team carried out an additional data linking exercise to ensure better coverage of the degree classifications variable, which has improved data quality. 
  • Subject level data for sciences, for one provider, was remapped following a data update, which contained higher resolution data with improved quality.

Trainees excluded from this release

Please see the main methodology for further details on filters and the full list of trainees included/excluded from the statistical release.

Self-funded trainees

There are a number of trainees excluded from this analysis who may be working towards QTS, or another teaching qualification. This release does not include:

Self-funded trainees – We exclude trainees that the provider has indicated are not eligible for UK financial support. This includes overseas trainees not entitled to UK financial support, and trainees on the School Direct salaried route undertaking a non-DfE funded subject and/or employed at a private school. This year, 661 self-funded trainees were excluded compared to 618 self-funded trainees excluded from the revised figures for 2020/21.

Teacher Workforce Model (TWM) 

For entrants starting in 2021/22, the department’s annual postgraduate ITT targets (PGITT) have been chosen, for the first time, using analysis from the newly developed Teacher Workforce Model (TWM). The TWM replaces the previously used Teacher Supply Model (TSM).

Whilst the new model is also a stock and flow model and holds many similarities with its predecessor, the TSM[1], there are methodological differences. The most important difference in the TWM is the uplift of PGITT targets to attempt to counter the estimated impacts from under-recruitment in the two PGITT recruitment cycles before 2021/22 (ITT2019 and ITT2020) that have not yet been reflected within the School Workforce Census[2] data. This change is a key driver of the higher targets this year for physics, design & technology, business studies and the group of subjects categorised as ‘other’[3]. For example, the target for Physics has increased by 89%, from 1,336 to 2,530, primarily because the 2021/22 target is uplifted to account for the impacts of under-recruitment in the previous two ITT cycles. In subjects where an over-recruitment within the two PGITT recruitment cycles was estimated, this was ignored; in other words, targets for those subjects were not ‘deflated’ because of previous over-recruitment. The TSM did not account for the two recruitment cycles that have not yet fed into the SWC data, as the TWM now does.

The TWM underpins the selection of PGITT targets by considering changes in future teacher demand, and estimating both future teacher recruitment and future teacher retention. To estimate future teacher demand, the model considers the Department’s National Pupil Projections[4] by school phase and uses assumptions on how the pupil: teacher ratio will rise and fall with projected pupil numbers based on historic trends. The demand for individual secondary subjects is based upon the current split of teaching time across subjects as recorded within the School Workforce Census and the estimated impact of relevant curriculum policies. For the selection of 2021/22 PGITT targets the relevant year of teacher demand to consider is 2022/23, as this is the year that 2021/22 PGITT trainees would first enter the workforce as newly qualified teachers (NQTs).

In considering future teacher recruitment and retention, the model estimates the number of teachers that will both enter and leave the workforce in the future. Entrants include returning teachers, teachers that are new to the state-funded sector (including newly trained teachers who do not join the workforce immediately after ITT), teachers gaining qualified teacher status (QTS) via the Assessment Only route, and NQTs trained via undergraduate ITT. The model also includes an estimate of NQTs entering the workforce following PGITT (both mainstream PGITT and High Potential ITT routes) in the two ITT cycles before 2021/22, therefore accounting for any potential shortfall resulting from under-recruitment in these two cycles. Estimates of teachers gained via ITT take account of completion and employment rates to reflect that not all trainees complete their course and enter the workforce immediately. 

The number of teachers leaving the workforce are estimated using forecasted leaver rates, as the number of leavers can vary depending on the size of the workforce, with separate forecasted rates for those leaving via retirement and those that leave for other reasons. The model also accounts for teachers who do not leave service but do reduce their working hours, to reflect changes in the overall FTE (full-time equivalent) of the workforce that are not captured within the leaver estimates. 

All modelling estimates take into account the latest economic and ITT recruitment data as of Autumn 2020. 

 

Footnotes:

[1] TSM and initial teacher training allocations: 2020 to 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

[2] The School Workforce Census is a key source of data used in the TWM, providing information on the current and historical number of teachers in the workforce, the number that leave and enter, and the subjects taught. The latest statistical release can be found here: National statistics overview: School workforce in England: November 2020 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

[3] ‘Other’ is comprised of a variety subjects, including media and communication studies, social studies, psychology 

[4] National pupil projections, Reporting Year 2021 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

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