Target number of trainees to start postgraduate initial teacher training (PGITT) in 2024/25, as estimated using the Teacher Workforce Model (TWM). This publication covers targets for postgraduate ITT, however, this is only one of many routes into the teacher workforce, all of which are considered when calculating targets. Other routes include Undergraduate HEI courses, Assessment Only (AO), the upcoming teacher degree apprenticeship, returners, new to the state-funded sector entrants, and newly qualified entrants that defer entry into the profession (deferrers).
This table contains calculations of the 2024/25 postgraduate ITT targets. These calculations estimate the target number of trainees to start postgraduate initial teacher training (postgraduate ITT) in 2024/25.
These targets have been calculated at a national level and cover all state-funded primary (including maintained nurseries attached to schools) and secondary schools (including post-16 provision within such schools), academies, and free schools in England.
Further information on the specific numbers and calculations used within this workbook may be found within the methodological annex that is available below, in the ‘additional supporting files’ section of this publication.
Please note: This 2024/25 PGITT targets publication is the first year this file has been published to the EES publication dashboard. The previous publication data for the 2023/24 targets were published on the GOV.UK publication landing page.
This document provides technical details and information to accompany the ‘calculation of 2024/25 postgraduate initial teacher training (ITT) targets’ Excel workbook. This includes the scope of the calculations, key terms, the calculation processes, and the assumptions used.
The Teacher Workforce Model is a national, stocks & flows model covering all state-funded primary (including maintained nurseries attached to schools) and secondary schools (including post-16 provision within such schools), academies, and free schools [1] (opens in a new tab) in England.
The model estimates the number of qualified teachers required by such schools in future (beyond 2022/23) for both primary and each secondary subject; and by considering the number of teachers that will leave or enter service in future, estimates the 2024/25 PGITT targets needed to supply sufficient numbers of teachers in 2025/26.
The TWM is updated annually to use the latest available data. The school workforce census (SWC) is the key data source for the model, providing information on the composition of the current (2022/23) teacher workforce, teacher inflows/outflows, and the curriculum taught in secondary schools.
The text below provides a high-level explanation of how PGITT targets have been calculated this year. However, we also publish the calculations used to derive these targets as part of our ‘Calculation of 2024-25 PGITT targets’ Excel workbook. This can be found in the ‘additional supporting files’ section above. This is the first year it has been published within the EES publication dashboard. The previous, 2023/24 publication file can be found on the main GOV.UK webpage of the publication (opens in a new tab), alongside a methodological annex that provides further details on the calculations.
How did the Teacher Workforce Model estimate PGITT targets for 2024/25?
Firstly, the TWM estimated future teacher demand from a starting 2022/23 teacher stock (as measured by the SWC in November 2022) by considering projections of pupil numbers and by estimating the national pupil: teacher ratios needed to meet demand as pupil numbers change.
The TWM then estimated the total number of teachers (in FTE, full time equivalent) needed to join the workforce in 2025/26 to fully meet this demand. The model focussed on entrants needed in 2025/26 as these would include the newly qualified entrants trained via PGITT in 2024/25.
This 2025/26 ‘entrant need’ comprised three parts:
The number of leavers expected in 2025/26; which the model assumes must be replaced by other teachers entering the workforce in 2025/26.
The extra number of teachers needed in 2025/26 because of increases in teacher demand compared to 2024/25 due to pupil number growth. Note, if pupil numbers are forecast to fall between 2024/25 and 2025/26 (as for primary), the model assumes that some teachers could leave without being replaced, as teacher demand would fall in line with pupil numbers.
Finally, the model assesses whether we have under recruited in the two ITT cycles prior to 2024/25. The model does not only consider the impacts of ITT recruitment, it also considers the impacts of teacher retention and the recruitment of teachers by other routes (e.g. returners). If the model estimates an overall under-supply impact, the model corrects for this by assuming that additional teachers should be recruited to counteract it.
The model takes this ‘entrant need’ and subtracts the number of entrants expected to join the workforce in 2025/26 through routes other than newly qualified entrants (NQEs) that have just completed PGITT. These include: returners, those teachers that are new to the state-funded school sector, and those NQEs that gained qualified teacher status via an assessment only route or via undergraduate ITT. The residual figure is the number of NQEs needed (in FTE form) in 2025/26 having been trained via PGITT in 2024/25.
Finally, the model upscales this number of 2025/26 NQEs into a 2024/25 PGITT target (in the form of trainee headcount) by:
Applying an FTE to headcount conversion rate that is specific to NQEs, to reflect that not all NQEs enter service working full-time, and
Applying ITT completion and post-ITT employment rates to reflect that not all individuals who commence ITT both complete it and gain employment as an NQE in state-funded schools in England within six months of completing training.
Further information on the specific steps of this process are provided in the next section.
Footnotes:
[1] (opens in a new tab) Whilst special schools, pupil referral units, early years, independent schools, and further education/sixth-form colleges are considered as being out of scope of the TWM, the PGITT targets set using the model do make an indirect provision for teachers required in those sectors.
In order to provide a sufficient supply of new teachers in 2025/26, it is estimated that 33,355 trainees are required to start postgraduate initial teacher training (PGITT) in the academic year 2024/25. This is a decrease of 2,185 (6.1%) on the 2023/24 postgraduate initial teacher training target and includes those to be recruited via the high potential initial teacher training (HPITT) programme.
The drivers behind changes in target vary by subject. The key factor as to whether the 2024/25 targets have increased or decreased for specific secondary subjects is the extent to which those targets have been adjusted to build in the impacts of recruitment being below target in the two ITT recruitment rounds before 2024/25. This is done via the under-supply adjustments [1] (opens in a new tab), which account for approximately a quarter of the combined primary and secondary target.
There are many other factors that influence both the targets and recruitment adjustment, including (but not limited to): changes in teacher demand, supply forecasts, and both ITT completion and employment rates. The precise drivers behind target changes vary by subject; further details may be found both in this section and in the ‘further methodological details’ section of this webpage.
Secondary subjects
The 2024/25 target for secondary PGITT trainees increased by 815 across eight subjects and decreased by 3,220 across ten subjects, resulting in an overall decrease of 2,405 compared to 2023/24, from 26,360 to 23,955 (a 9.1% decrease overall). This is driven by more favourable supply forecasts. For example, recruitment forecasts for both returners, and teachers that are new to the state-funded sector (including deferrer NQEs, newly qualified entrants) are more favourable for almost all subjects this year.
In addition to this, whilst secondary pupil numbers are still growing, they are now growing more slowly; in advance of peaking around 2025/26; this acts to reduce the rate at which the workforce needs to grow and has helped lead to this year’s lower secondary target.
When looking at specific subjects, the overall decrease in secondary target is principally driven by target reductions for Design & Technology (D & T), English, geography, modern languages, and physics; a result of more optimistic supply forecasts for those subjects this year. We have provided a worked example below, using physics, to show how a variety of more favourable supply forecasts have combined to lower the need for PGITT trainees in 2024/25.
Note – we produce forecasts for all subjects individually, so whilst the leaver rate forecast might be more favourable this year for some subjects, it is less so for others.
Worked example:
Calculating the 2024/25 PGITT physics target:
The physics target this year has fallen from 2,820 to 2,250, a fall of 570 trainees (20%), there are three major drivers behind this fall:
More optimistic leaver rate trajectory - For example, our 2024/25 Physics leaver trajectory (11.5%) is one percentage point lower than the trajectory for 2023/24 when calculating last year’s targets. Over a three-year period, the more optimistic trajectory equates to retaining roughly 200 extra physics teachers in total. Given that for every 100 physics trainees, we get approximately 55 physics teachers, this equates to roughly 360 fewer trainees being required in 2024/25. The lower than previously expected physics leaver rates, are in part due to the impacts of the covid-19 pandemic on teacher retention, which impacted the model’s baseline for leaver rates. Further expansion on these leaver rates can be found in the section ‘estimating future teacher leaver numbers’ in the methodology below.
Improved PGITT completion rates - Our assumed physics PGITT completion rates are approximately 3 percentage points higher this year. Higher completion rates this year have reduced the PGITT target by roughly 80 trainees.
Slowing increase of secondary pupil numbers - Pupil numbers are projected to ‘level out’ and peak around 2025/26 [2] (opens in a new tab). This means physics teacher numbers can grow at a slower pace than in preceding years. In the next three years, physics teacher numbers will need to grow by around 60 less to meet demand in 2025/26 than for the corresponding period in last year’s TWM. This equates to approximately 110 fewer trainees being needed this year.
Subject level, increase in targets:
The subject with the largest percentage increase in target is drama which increased by 150 trainees, from 300 to 450 (a 50% increase). This increase is driven by a newly introduced under-supply adjustment, a result of less favourable supply forecasts this year. For example, drama was one of the few subjects for which both the returner and NQE recruitment forecasts became less favourable this year. Drama was the only subject for which an under-supply adjustment was applied this year, but not last.
Targets also increased for: art & design (33%), biology (7%), business studies (0.4%), chemistry (2%), computing (14%), mathematics (4%), and music (4%). For all of these subjects, apart from biology, an increased under-supply adjustment this year was a key factor in the increase in target this year.
Whilst there was a small reduction in the under-supply adjustment for biology this year, less favourable assumptions around both ITT completion and employment rates have boosted the need for biology trainees this year.
Subject level, decrease in targets:
The subject with the largest percentage decrease in target this year is geography, decreasing by 540 trainees, from 1,485 to 945 (a 36% decrease). This is a result of a smaller under-supply adjustment this year, driven by more favourable recruitment forecasts of geography newly qualified entrants (NQEs). The improved forecasts are due to the number of new PGITT entrants to geography growing from 640 in 2022/23, to 836 in 2023/24 [3] (opens in a new tab), and as a result of a greater than forecast number of returners and new to state funded sector geography teachers seen in 2022/23.
Targets have also decreased for classics (20%) [4] (opens in a new tab), design & technology (26%), English (25%), history (9%), modern languages (14%), Others (6%) [5] (opens in a new tab), PE (15%), physics (20%), and RE (11%).
Most of these falls in target are a result of smaller under-supply adjustments this year, a result of more favourable supply forecasts for both returners and those entrants that are new to the state-funded sector.
Uniquely, the leaver rate forecasts for English, physics, and classics are more favourable this year than last. Last year’s forecasts were baselined upon the final leaver rate data received before the covid-19 pandemic (2019/20). For the first time, we have this year been able to forecast future leaver rates using post covid-19 data (2022/23). As leaver rates were lower in 2022/23 than in 2019/20 for these three subjects, the leaver rate forecasts this year are more favourable, acting to lower PGITT targets.
Whilst there are no under-supply adjustments in place for classics, history, and PE, more favourable supply forecasts this year (e.g. returner recruitment) have helped to reduce the need for trainees.
It is important to note that recruitment to postgraduate ITT in 2024/25 is not limited for any subject. Therefore, although targets for certain subjects may have decreased compared to last year, this does not necessarily mean there will be fewer trainees recruited as a consequence – recruitment can exceed targets.
EBacc/STEM
The 2024/25 target for PGITT secondary EBacc [6] (opens in a new tab) trainees has decreased by 1,995 compared to 2023/24, from 17,500 to 15,505 (an 11.4% decrease). The subjects driving the decreased targets are physics, geography, modern languages, and English.
The 2024/25 target for PGITT secondary STEM [6] (opens in a new tab) trainees has decreased by 210 compared to 2023/24, from 9,195 to 8,985 (a 2.3% decrease).
The EBacc & STEM subject with the largest percentage increase in target is computing, increasing by 160 trainees, from 1,170 to 1,330 (a 14% increase). The subjects with the largest percentage decrease in target for EBacc & STEM are geography and physics respectively.
Primary
The 2024/25 target for primary PGITT trainees has increased by 220 compared to 2023/24, from 9,180 to 9,400 (a 2.4% increase).
This small increase is a result of primary recruitment and retention forecasts becoming less favourable this year leading to a slightly increased need for ITT trainees to meet future demand, despite falling pupil numbers. In particular, forecasts for primary leaver rates and the recruitment of both NQEs and teachers that are new to the state-funded school sector have become less favourable.
However, the primary target is still 2,255 (19%) and 1,400 (13%) lower than 2022/23 and 2021/22 targets respectively. This reflects pupil projection data trends [2] (opens in a new tab), that show primary-aged pupil numbers have started to fall more rapidly as we move into the mid-2020s.
To note:
In addition to the publication of the PGITT targets themselves, we have published the calculations used to derive these targets as part of our ‘Calculation of 2024-25 PGITT targets’ Excel workbook. This can be found in the ‘additional supporting files’ section above. This is the first year it has been published within the EES publication dashboard. The previous, 2023/24 publication file can be found on the main uk.gov webpage of the publication, alongside a methodological annex that provides further details on the calculations.
Footnotes:
[1] (opens in a new tab) Under-supply adjustments calculated in the TWM assess the impacts of retention and recruitment via all routes. They use ITT recruitment data, and both ITT completion and post-ITT employment rates to estimate the number of NQEs entering the workforce, having trained via PGITT, from the two ITT cycles immediately before 2024/25. It uses these figures, along with estimates for both the corresponding numbers of entrants into the stock via other routes (e.g. returners) and leavers, to estimate the size of the workforce in the target year. This figure is then compared to previously estimated teacher demand & supply, to identify if enough teachers were recruited/retained to meet the needs of the system. If there is a supply shortage, an under-supply adjustment is made. The model does not apply an over-supply adjustment.
[4] (opens in a new tab) Note: the target size for classics is small and therefore percentages should be treated with caution.
[5] (opens in a new tab) ‘Others’ includes child development, citizenship, law, media studies, Other social studies, Other technology, politics, psychology, sociology, and social sciences among others.
[6] (opens in a new tab) STEM subjects include: mathematics, biology, chemistry, physics, and computing. EBacc subjects include all STEM subjects, in addition to English, classics, modern languages, geography, and history.
To estimate future teacher demand, the model considers the Department’s National Pupil Projections by school phase and uses assumptions on how national pupil: teacher ratios (PTRs) will rise and fall with projected pupil numbers based upon historical trends.
The model assumes that as pupil numbers grow, PTRs will grow in line with the historical relationship between pupil numbers and PTRs. Similarly, the model assumes that PTRs will fall if pupil numbers fall.
The demand for individual secondary subjects is based upon the current split of teaching time across subjects as recorded within the school workforce census.
Pupil projections are a key driver of the future demand for new teachers. All else being constant, if pupil numbers start to grow, or begin to grow at a faster rate year-on-year, then teacher numbers would also need to grow at a faster rate. Similarly, if pupil numbers were to fall, or to grow at a slower rate year-on-year, this would lead to a fall in the demand for new teachers.
Therefore, the TWM is driven by the year-on-year change rate in pupil numbers, rather than the raw pupil numbers themselves. The impact of pupil projections upon 2024/25 PGITT targets (all else being equal) compared to 2023/24 is downward for secondary, but reasonably negligible for primary:
The primary pupil population is forecast to fall by 1.8% in 2025/26, which is similar to the fall rate for 2024/25 when calculating targets last year. If pupil numbers are falling at a similar rate to the previous year, the size of the teacher workforce can also fall at a similar rate year on year – leading to a similar demand for PGITT trainees.
Therefore, in isolation of other factors, the primary pupil projections have had a fairly negligible impact upon the change in the primary target this year.
By contrast, the secondary pupil population is forecast to grow by 0.03% in 2025/26. This is a slower rate of growth than in preceding years, i.e. secondary pupil numbers are still growing, but are doing so more slowly than in the previous year.
Whilst the model still assumes that the secondary workforce needs to grow with growing pupil numbers, it assumes it can grow less rapidly year-on-year because pupil numbers aren’t growing as quickly. In isolation of other drivers, this acts to reduce the demand for secondary PGITT trainees in 2024/25.
Estimating future teacher leaver numbers
The TWM estimates the number of qualified teachers who will leave the workforce between 2022/23 and 2025/26 and assumes that all leavers will need to be replaced by teachers entering the workforce.
The TWM uses forecasts of leaver rates, as the absolute number of leavers will vary depending on the size of the workforce. Separate forecasts are produced for leavers aged over- and under-55 years old respectively, reflecting that the likelihood of teachers leaving service is driven by different factors for older and younger teachers. Separate forecasts are produced for primary and each individual secondary subject, reflecting differences in teacher retention levels between the teacher cohorts of different subjects.
Observations from the three most recent years of school workforce census leaver rates data:
In 2020/21, there was an unprecedented decrease in the number of teachers leaving the state-funded sector, with leaver rates falling to the lowest level observed since the school workforce census started in 2010. This fall was likely because of the impact of COVID-19.
In 2021/22, both primary and secondary leaver rates increased slightly but remained below their pre-pandemic levels. This was likely to be a result of the continuing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2022/23, the latest year for which data was available [1] (opens in a new tab)[2] (opens in a new tab), both primary and secondary leaver rates increased in line with their pre-pandemic levels.
As the effects of the pandemic subside, we expect leaver rates to remain comparable with pre-pandemic levels.
To develop estimates of future leaver rates, we accounted for the latest (as of December 2023) economic forecasts, and any other known factors that might impact on future teacher numbers not yet reflected in the baseline data. For example, we factored in the effect of teacher pay relative to pay in the wider economy and the impact on retention.
Last year, given the substantial impacts of the covid-19 pandemic upon teacher retention we used the final pre-pandemic data from 2019/20 as our leaver rate baseline. This year, we used an average of the 2019/20 and 2022/23 data as our leaver rate baseline. As leaver rates were lower in 2022/23 than in 2019/20 for physics, English, and classics, the leaver rate forecasts this year were more favourable for these subjects, acting to lower their PGITT targets.
The model also accounts for existing teachers that stay in service but reduce their working hours between years; the reduction in capacity is expressed in terms of FTE teachers that need to be replaced [3] (opens in a new tab).
The TWM estimates the number of qualified entrants who will enter the workforce between 2022/23 and 2025/26. As with leaver numbers, future entrant numbers are forecast in the form of FTE (full time equivalent) rather than headcount, reflecting differences in working pattern between different types of inflow/outflow.
Both the number of returners (those teachers returning to the state-funded school sector in England) and those who are new to the sector (including newly trained teachers who do not join the workforce immediately after ITT) are estimated using forecasts that consider the latest workforce and economic data as of December 2023.
The model then estimates the number of teachers who will enter service having just gained qualified teacher status (QTS) via either the assessment only route or ITT using the latest ITT recruitment data. As some trainees will not complete ITT and immediately enter service after training, assumed ITT completion and post-ITT employment rates are applied to the numbers of trainees previously recruited to estimate the number of newly qualified entrants (NQEs).
Adjustment to counter under-supply from previous ITT rounds
One of the key drivers behind changes in 2024/25 PGITT targets for specific subjects is an adjustment included within the TWM to build in the estimated impact of recruitment being below target in the two ITT rounds prior to 2024/25, as well as forecasted under-supply in other routes into and out of teaching.
There are many factors that influence both the targets and under-supply adjustment, including (but not limited to): changes in teacher demand, supply forecasts for other routes into teaching, and both ITT completion and employment rates.
As well as considering the impact of PGITT/HPITT recruitment, we also consider the wider recruitment of teachers that are newly qualified such as Undergraduate HEI courses and Assessment Only (AO). Additionally, we account for the recruitment of teachers that return having previously left the state-funded teaching sector (returners), and those that were already qualified but are new to the sector.
The model is holistic in the way it is influenced by both leaver rates and forecasted recruitment from other routes, and factors all these supply factors into the decision to make an under-supply adjustment (or not).
The process to assess whether to make an adjustment is shown below:
The TWM uses ITT recruitment data, and ITT completion and post-ITT employment rates to estimate the number of NQEs entering the workforce having trained via PGITT (both mainstream PGITT and high potential ITT routes) from the two ITT cycles immediately before 2024/25, for primary and each secondary subject.
The model uses these PGITT NQE figures for 2023/24 and 2024/25 respectively along with estimates for both the corresponding numbers of entrants into the stock via other routes (e.g. returners) and leavers, to estimate the size of the workforce in 2024/25. This 2024/25 stock size is then compared to the previously estimated teacher demand for that year to identify whether we have recruited the teachers needed from the two PGITT rounds prior to 2024/25, also accounting for both retention and wider recruitment.
If this comparison shows that we have under recruited in specific subjects, then an adjustment is applied by increasing the 2024/25 PGITT target for those subjects. No adjustment is required for subjects where there is no under-recruitment impact. This action is taken as the recruitment impacts of the 2022/23 and 2023/24 PGITT cycles had not yet fed into the most recently published SWC from November 2022 - which we use as the baseline in the model.
This year, the two ITT recruitment rounds that were relevant for developing 2024/25 PGITT targets were those for 2022/23 and 2023/24. Last year, the 2023/24 targets were developed by considering the workforce impacts resulting from the 2021/22 and 2022/23 ITT recruitment rounds.
As with last year, this adjustment has been a key driver of the subject level changes in PGITT targets this year:
An increased adjustment this year was a key driver of the increased targets this year for maths, chemistry, computing, art & design, business studies, drama, and music.
Similarly, a smaller adjustment this year was a key driver of the lower targets this year for physics, English, modern languages, geography, design & technology, others, and religious education.
Footnotes:
[1] (opens in a new tab) To note for modelling purposes, within the TWM we assume that those recorded in the SWC as ‘leavers’ in 2021/22 (the majority leaving service in the Summer of 2022) are leavers in 2022/23. This ensures that the cohort aligns within target calculations to the 2022/23 entrants - who will mostly be those hired to replace them in September 2022.
[3] (opens in a new tab) Some existing teachers that stay in service increase their working hours between years. However, the model estimates and accounts for the net impact of teachers changing their working hours between years, which is a reduction in FTE teacher numbers.
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