This document provides background information on the ‘National pupil projections’ release. It explains the concepts and methods used to calculate the figures and provides an overview of the data sources and other relevant information.
National pupil projections
- Published
- Last updated
See all notes (3)
Updated to include the new 2024 pupil projections
Updated to include the new 2023 pupil projections
Updated to include the new 2022 pupil projections
Introduction
Projection methods overview
The pupil projection model creates national projections for the number of pupils in England by age and by school phases and types. It uses population estimates (opens in a new tab) and projections (opens in a new tab), normally from ONS, information on birth registrations in England and data derived from the School Census.
Each model uses the most recently available population estimates and projections, based on the appropriate mid-year, as well as ONS’s monthly birth figures, as underpinning total population figures. The population estimates and projections are modified from their original mid-year basis to simulate the definitions used in the School Census (a January count with pupils’ ages as at the previous 31 August).
School census data up to and including the model year is used alongside the above to create participation rates, calculated as a series of historic census totals measured against population estimates. These provide a starting point for the model, with the school census data informing assumptions about future proportions of the school population by type of school.
Separate figures, both historically and into the future, are calculated for part time and full time pupils.
ONS’s population projections include all usually resident persons, whatever their nationality. Long-term migrants are defined as individuals who change their country of usual residence for a period of at least a year, and in such cases their country of destination becomes the country of usual residence. Pupils who are short-term migrants, and are staying in England for less than a year, are included in the School Census and are therefore reflected in the pupil projections. They are not separately identifiable.
In 2023 the underpinning data used to create the pupil projections was different to that normally used because of delays in the publication of population estimates and projections that take account of the results of the 2021 census (opens in a new tab) by ONS.
ONS have now published updated estimates and projections, including rebased estimates from 2012, which have been used in the pupil projections. However, ONS did not update the fertility or mortality assumptions for the mid-2021 interim population projections, instead continuing to use those from the mid-2020 projection set.
The pupil projections therefore include an adjustment to the source data to transition between the actual birth data used for the first year of ONS’s projection, 2022-23, and the long-term. More details can be seen in the ‘2024 reporting year’ section.
Model frequency
These pupil projections are produced annually. However, they are based on ONS’s national population projections, which are normally produced once every two years.
In the years where there are no new ONS projections then the pupil projections are technically an update of the previous year’s projection, with an added year of actual data, rather than a new projection in their own right.
2024 will be the only set of pupil projections using ONS’s mid-2021 interim population projections, the first incorporating the results of the 2021 census. ONS are developing a mid-2022 population projection which will include a full set of new assumptions of future levels of migration, fertility and mortality. These are scheduled for publication in November 2024 and will be used for the 2025 pupil projections.
2024 reporting year
For these 2024 pupil projections the source data has returned to the ONS population estimates, produced by the traditional cohort component method, and their mid-2021 population projections. Both of these take account of the results of the 2021 census, and the population estimates have been rebased back to 2012.
ONS’s population estimates use census data as a benchmark and roll forward the results each year, using actual birth and death figures and calculations by single year of age for migration. Over the ten years between censuses these roll-forward estimates become less certain as various assumptions are having to be made. This is expected and is why, once ONS have a new set of census results, their estimates for the previous ten years are rebased.
The publication of population estimates and projections was delayed in 2023, which is why they were not available for use in the 2023 pupil projections.
The national population projections from ONS used in the 2024 model are an interim set which are 2021-based, and take account of the 2021 census. The migration assumptions that feed into the ONS projections were updated for this version. However, this interim set rolled forward the fertility and mortality assumptions from the previous mid-2020 projection set, while including actual births and deaths for the first year of the projections (2022-23).
Fertility for 2022-23 was lower than had been previously projected, which results in a step change in fertility (and therefore projected births) between 2022-23 and 2023-24 in ONS’s projections.
To address this step change and take into account the downward trend in births since 2012-13, the 2024 pupil projections include an adjustment to the ONS projections.
For this adjustment, two options were produced, both based on reducing the number age 0 in the total population (roughly equivalent to births):
- A persistent adjustment: a continual reduction from the second year of the projection (2023-24) onwards, reflecting the assumption that the lower fertility figures observed in 2023 continue into the future. These reductions also move through the population projections on a cohort basis: that is the reduction at age 0 in year 2, is followed through with the same reduction at age 1 in year 3, age 2 in year 4, and so on.
- A transitional adjustment: a gradual transition reflecting a trajectory between the lower fertility figures observed in 2023 and the current ONS long-term fertility assumptions. The same adjustment is made in 2023-24 as above, but this is reduced over the next three years.
The difference between the two options is negligible by 2028 (less than 0.1% at nursery & primary school, no change for the other school types), before these birth cohorts reach reception age. The 2024 pupil projections are not published beyond 2028 due to the impact of the uncertainty in the long term fertility assumptions beyond this date.
Pupil counts for the historic years are derived from data collected via the School Census.
In 2024 the actual nursery and primary population was higher than had been projected (although it still dropped compared to 2023). There are a number of potential reasons for this, including higher uptake of pre-reception children into state funded nursery schools, in-year arrivals from home schooling or independent schools and recent arrivals from abroad – which could include recent resettlement schemes for people from Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong or returning armed forces families.
All projections are inherently uncertain but the pandemic related effects and recent arrivals from specific countries may make the results of the pupil projections more so than usual. Each year, therefore, we assess the methodologies by which historic figures are projected into the future to try to allow for this. For example, in recent years some of the calculations for All Schools have been swapped from the last 3-years of actual data to 5-years, to even out any anomalies in the pandemic-affected school censuses of 2021 and 2022.
The increase in children in the census who were not present in any school the previous year has in 2024 levelled off at the higher figures seen in 2023. It is not possible at this point to know if this will be sustained or if levels will drop in the future.
Key drivers to change in the projections
The school census data is measured against the ONS population figures to create participation rates (both overall and for the different school types) for each historic year. The participation rates from the last three to five years are then used to calculate the pupil numbers going forward. If the school census figures were inaccurate they would have the potential to affect not only the year in question but the whole of the projection model.
As these pupil projections are based on national population projections, alongside participation rates, they are directly affected by the assumptions made by the producer of the projections.
Changes in the population who are of school age is generally driven by changes in the birth rate rather than direct immigration. However, the higher levels of migration seen in recent years will have included some children of school age (for example, families from Ukraine). In addition, the birth rate can be affected by any increase in the number of children born to non-UK born women (compared to those born to UK-born women) as they may have higher fertility rates[1] (opens in a new tab). The percentage of children who were born to non-UK born women increased from 24.0% of births in England in 2007 to around 30.3% in 2022.
After a decade of increases the total number of births in England dropped in 2013, remained stable for the next three years, then dropped again. There was a relatively small increase in 2021 but indications are that this was a pandemic related effect as numbers have dropped again since.
The difference between the projected numbers in nursery & primary schools and secondary schools from 2023 compared to the new projections published in 2024 are shown in the chart below.
[1] (opens in a new tab) See https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/datasets/parentscountryofbirth (opens in a new tab), table 6 in 2022 edition.
Alternative scenarios
The ONS national population projections, which are the base for this projection of future pupil numbers, are based on assumptions which best reflect demographic patterns at the time they were selected.
However, there are inherent uncertainties in projecting the future size of the pupil population, particularly migration which does not have the registration system by which births and deaths are recorded.
In addition, ONS’s mid-2021 population projections updated the migration assumptions but have rolled forward the assumptions for fertility and mortality from the previous projections, with actual data used for the first year (2022-23).
Details on the additional uncertainty associated with the fertility assumptions, the adjustments considered and the impact on the time period in scope of the 2024 projections, are provided in the “2024 reporting year” section.
Relationship with school capacity publication
This release presents the Department’s main national-level pupil projections. The department’s data on school capacity is produced by a different methodology and includes local authorities’ own forecasts of future pupil numbers, based on local-level information, such as inter-authority movement of pupils. It provides forecasts by national curriculum year group whereas these national pupil projections forecast by actual age.
The school capacity data is published annually as an official statistical release, which can be found here.
The national pupil projections presented in the current release are produced within the Department, at national level only. They cover a longer time period than in the school capacity release. Differences in the methodologies used by individual local authorities for pupil number forecasts mean that the aggregated totals in the school capacity release will differ from the national-level projections presented here, but the trends in both are broadly similar.
Accuracy
Pupil counts for the historic years have been derived from data collected via the School Census.
The projected figures are subject to increasing margins of error the further into the future they run. There is also a greater level of uncertainty for smaller and more detailed categories, such as particular age bands or smaller categories of school. Factors which may contribute to differences between projections and actual data include:
- the underlying population trend, which depends on assumptions about births, mortality and migration;
- differences between short-term assumptions in the population projections, used in one model, and subsequent population estimate data incorporated into the next year’s model;
- participation for all pupils, but particularly amongst pupils aged under 5 and over 15, which may differ from the rates assumed;
- school reorganisation by local authorities, which may affect the balance between primary and secondary schools;
- variations in the proportions attending different school types, such as independent schools;
- the introduction of new Government policies affecting schools or population.
Pupil projections rely heavily on the population projections produced by outside sources which are widely used across government for planning purposes. The projections are produced using demographic assumptions about future levels of fertility, life-expectancy and net-migration, based on analysis of trends and expert advice.
Change from early projections
This release does not include projections for pupils aged 16 and over. The projections prior to 2013 were aligned to overall 16-18 participation rate projections produced for the Education Funding Agency 16-19 Funding Statement. This has been replaced with a much simpler funding letter to 16-19 education and training providers which does not include projections that are comparable with the pre-16 projections in this publication. This is a permanent change.
Consistent with the July 2014 onwards publications, this release takes out dual-registered pupils from schools classified as alternative provision settings. This removes double counting in pupil numbers from this school type, which was present in previous statistical releases. For this reason, the alternative provision data from 2002 to 2010 has been removed.
Definitions
Date of count
- Figures relate to January of the year shown.
School types
- State-funded schools – a total of the mainained nursery, primary, secondary, special schools and alternative provision settings.
- State-funded primary schools – primary and middle deemed primary schools
- State-funded secondary schools – secondary, middle deemed secondary and all through schools, including city technology colleges, studio schools and and university technical colleges.
- State-funded special schools – includes all special schools apart from non-maintained special schools and general hospital schools
- Non-maintained special schools – constitute a separate category of school which are not included in the state funded total
- Alternative provision settings – includes pupil preferral units and alternative provision academies and free schools, but not other types of alternative provision
- Independent schools – includes all schools that are not state funded, ,except non-maintained special schools.
Age
- Figures calculated in January, age as at previous 31st August.
- Under 5 – ages up to and including age 4
- Primary ages – 5 to 10
- Secondary ages – 10 to 15
Part-time and full-time equivalent
- Part-time pupils assumed to represent half of a full-time pupil to give full-time equivalent (FTE) totals.
- From 2003 to 2011 state-funded schools could record part-time pupils at any age. From 2012 pupils aged under 5 or over 15 can be recorded by state-funded schools as part-time, but all pupils aged 5 – 15 are recorded as full-time.
- Independent schools can record pupils of any age as part-time.
Help and support
Contact us
If you have a specific enquiry about National pupil projections statistics and data:
Pupils and School Finance team
Email: PupilPopulation.PROJECTIONS@education.gov.ukContact name: Schools Pupils and Statistics Team
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Telephone: 020 7783 8300
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