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Methodology
Higher Education Entrants and Qualifiers by their Level 2 and 3 Attainment
Published
Introduction
This methodology contains supporting information for the statistical release Higher Education Entrants and Qualifiers by their Level 2 and 3 Attainment, including further detail on the background of the publication, data sources, data processing and data quality of these statistics overall.
The methodology for this analysis is similar to that of the Higher Level Learners in England, Academic year 2021/22, however higher level learners only covers those at English providers, as opposed to students studying UK-wide in this publication.
This statistics publication presents information on the attainment at both levels 2 and 3 for full time first degree (e.g. Bachelor’s degree) entrants studying at UK higher education providers (HEPs) for English-domiciled learners between the academic years 2016/17 and 2021/22. Completion rates are also estimated for students in the 2016/17 and 2017/18 entrant cohorts who achieved a higher education qualification within 5 years.
Previous publications on prior attainment and HE outcomes
The Office for Students (OfS) have previously published analysis on prior academic attainment and higher education outcomes, which can be found at the links below:
Figures presented in this publication will differ from those published by the OfS due to differences in coverage of the student population. The OfS also publishes on students in English higher education providers only, while this publication looks at English-domiciled students at UK-wide providers.
Please note that a different methodology has been used to that of the OfS (which is used for regulation purposes) to produce the completion rates. For example, OfS count students still in study in the numerator of their metric.
The publication presents analysis of HE students and their prior academic attainment after combining three separate data sources:
The Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) ‘Student’ and ‘Student Alternative’ (AP) records for higher education providers (HEPs) which are collected and managed by JISC and
The Education and Skills Funding Agency’s (ESFA) Individualised Learner Record (ILR) data for further education providers (FEPs), and
The Young Persons Matched Administrative Dataset (YPMAD) for learners' level 2 attainment.
The majority of English-domiciled full-time first degree students at UK HEPs are found in the HESA student or AP student record. A small number of entrants attend HE provision at Welsh FEPs in the HESA student record.
Additionally, a small proportion of first degree entrants are found on the ILR, for those undertaking HE at FEPs in England.
Analysis is presented for English-domiciled entrants to reflect funding eligibility more closely and allow for consistent comparisons across both HESA and ILR sources.
HESA's ‘Student’ and ‘Student Alternative’ records
The HESA ‘Student’ and ‘Student Alternative’ records collect information on all students at higher education providers in the UK who follow courses that lead to the award of a qualification or provider credit. The data collections include information about students':
Domicile
Course aims (e.g. level 6 study)
Course completion
Entry qualifications (e.g. level 3 attainment)
The HESA student record is generally available in January after the end of each academic year.
ESFA's Individualised Learner Record
The Individualised Learner Record (ILR) collection is based on data returns to the Education and Skills Funding Agency (ESFA) from further education and training providers in England about learners in the FE system. The data cover information about the learning undertaken by each of them. The ILR is a complete record of government funded learning in the further education sector, and this includes learners undertaking level 6 study at FEPs.
The ILR includes a ‘Learner HE’ entity. This must be returned for learners doing courses at NQF levels 4 to 8 at FEPs and that meet certain conditions set by the Office for Students. The ‘Learner HE’ entity must be completed for all such learners doing these courses irrespective of whether they received any funding. Details of the coverage of the ‘Learner HE’ entity are available in the ILR specification (opens in a new tab).
The ILR is collected each month over each academic year. This publication is based on the final ILR collection, R14, which is compiled in the November after the end of each academic year.
Young Persons Matched Administrative Dataset
The Young Persons Matched Administrative Dataset (YPMAD) covers learners in England and is generated by matching several data sources together at an individual level, using personal identifiers such as name, date of birth, gender, and home postcode where available:
Pupil level Schools Census data containing information on the participation and personal characteristics of pupils in state schools, collected by DfE.
Awarding Organisation data including that collected as part of the Schools and Further Education Providers Performance Tables exercise, and separately from awarding organisations as part of the Vocational Qualifications Database up until 2010/11.
Individualised Learner Record (ILR) database covering participation and qualifications obtained in Further Education (FE) and Work-based Learning (WBL), collected by the Education and Skills Funding Agency from learning providers.
To produce these statistics, information has been standardised across both the HESA and ILR datasets. Extensive data processing is required to harmonise the information across the HESA and ILR data which is outlined below.
Counting learners
There are two population counts in this publication. The first are student entrants, and the second are student qualifiers.
a. Student entrants
An entrant is counted once for each academic year they enter first degree study. Some students drop out and re-enter in a following cohort, they are counted for each entry year.
Students in the HESA ‘Student’ and ‘Student Alternative’ records were included if they met the following criteria:
The student is studying at a Higher Education Provider based in the UK.
The student was domiciled in England prior to study.
The student is in their first year of study.
The student is studying full time.
The student is studying for their first degree.
The student is studying for their first level 6 qualification (e.g. Bachelor’s degree). This excludes those who have already achieved a qualification at level 6 or higher previously. Other exclusions are those undertaking an Integrated Master’s Degree, a Foundation Degree and other level 4/5 courses, or a higher level apprenticeship in the cohort year of entry.
The ILR is restricted to include learners defined by the learning aims (opens in a new tab). In addition, the domicile of learner is determined using their postcode.
b. Student qualifiers
A qualifier is counted in the cohort year when they entered study for a course they completed at the same provider they started at. Students who drop out of study, re-enter in a different academic year, and subsequently qualify are only counted as a qualifier once.
The time period for an entrant to complete their studies to be counted as a qualifier in this release is 5 years. This aligns with the OfS’ completion measure which gives a student 4 years and 15 days to complete their degree.
For some students the journey from entering to completing higher education is non-linear. Students can change their mind throughout their studies, from their mode of study (full time or part time), qualification aims (e.g. Bachelor's degree to Integrated Master's degree), course studied or provider.
Although this release covers full time first degree entrants, if the student changes their mode of study or qualification aims throughout their studies and complete a level 4+ qualification, they are counted as a qualifier. Students that transfer to another course at the same provider within their studies (as opposed to dropping out and re-entering) and complete their degree are also deemed as a qualifier in this release.
Students who transfer to another provider during their studies or drop out and start a new course at another provider and complete their degree are not counted as a qualifier here. The OfS estimated that 3.2% of English-domiciled first degree entrants in 2016/17 continued their studies but at a different higher education provider. This varies by level 3 qualifications achieved, more information can be found here: Continuation, non-continuation and transfer rates - Office for Students (opens in a new tab).
Students in the HESA ‘Student’ and ‘Student Alternative’ records were included if they met the following criteria:
The student obtained a qualification at level 4+ within 5 years of study.
The student’s qualification was awarded at a Higher Education Provider based in the UK.
The student was domiciled in England prior to study.
The student obtained their first degree.
The ILR is restricted to include learners defined by the learning aims (opens in a new tab). In addition, the domicile of learner is determined using their postcode.
A student is deemed as a qualifier if they met the following criteria:
The student completed the learning activities leading to the learning aim.
The learning outcome has been achieved within 5 years.
The period/academic month of leaving is during the academic year being referred to.
2. Defining level 6 study
National qualifications framework (NQF) level of study is derived differently for HESA and ILR records.
a. HESA data
In the HESA student records, level of study is based on the course aim (opens in a new tab) associated with the enrolment. Level 6 study consists of the following course aims:
Level 3 attainment is categorised differently for HESA and ILR records.
a. HESA data
In the HESA student records, level 3 attainment is derived from the student's UCAS tariff points (opens in a new tab) where the tariff points are converted to equivalent A level grades:
A level grades equivalent
UCAS tariff points
1. A*A*A*+
>=168
2. AAA to <A*A*A*
144 – 167
3. BBB to <AAA
120 – 143
4. CCC to <BBB
96 – 119
5. DDD to <CCC
72 – 95
6. EEE to <DDD
48 – 71
7. EE to <EEE
32 – 47
8. E to <EE
16 – 31
9. <E
1 – 15
10. 0 points
0
Missingness
The HESA data is comprehensive and all first degree entrants are allocated to one of the 10 categories based on their UCAS points. Around 15% of the entrants across the six cohort years from 2016/17 to 2021/22 have no UCAS points.
This is likely to be where an individual is a “mature student admitted on basis of previous experience and/or admissions test” or student holds “level 3 qualifications of which none are subject to UCAS Tariff” according to their highest qualification on entry (opens in a new tab). There are also several entrants to Russell Group and high tariff providers allocated to the '0 points' UCAS tariff category in the dataset. The high standard of entry requirements from these providers suggests there may be some data errors.
b. ILR data
Prior attainment of students in the ILR are captured differently which is influenced by the type of level 3 qualification these students have achieved. Most students in the ILR undertook vocational qualifications. The level 3 attainment is categorised as follows:
A or AS level only
Vocational qualifications only (e.g. BTECs, T levels)
Other qualifications (apprenticeships, occupational, or other general qualifications)
Mixed qualifications (combination of different qualifications)
No or missing qualifications
Missingness
Around 6% of entrants found on the ILR could not be matched to obtain their level 3 attainment. This can mostly be explained by entrants not having any prior attainment at level 3 or alternatively they could not be matched by a learner ID.
4. Defining Level 2 attainment
The level 2 attainment of students is taken from the Young Persons Matched Administrative Database (YPMAD) and is assessed by the learner’s attainment in English and maths only through GCSEs or Functional Skills level 2 qualifications. The level 2 data here is matched to both the HESA and ILR data and is categorised consistently as shown below:
GCSE in English and maths above CC/Grade 4
GCSE in English and maths at CC/Grade 4
GCSE or Functional Skills in English and maths
GCSE or Functional Skills in English or maths
No GCSE or Functional Skills in English and maths
Missing/unknown level 2 attainment
When assessing the level 2 and 3 attainment together, the level 2 attainment is aggregated as follows:
A. GCSE or Functional Skills achieved in both English and maths
1. GCSE in English and maths above CC/Grade 4
2. GCSE in English and maths at CC/Grade 4
3. GCSE or Functional Skills in English and maths
B. GCSE or Functional Skills not achieved in both English and maths
4. GCSE or Functional Skills in English or maths
5. No GCSE or Functional Skills in English and maths
C. Missing/unknown level 2 attainment
6. Missing/unknown level 2 attainment
To note there are no students in the ILR data with missing or unknown level 2 attainment, so this category is not included in these analyses.
Missingness
The YPMAD provides good coverage of level 2 prior attainment for first degree entrants, particularly for those listed in the ILR data, where there was no occurrence of non-matching.
For the HESA data however the match rate is lower due to the exclusion of certain student records at English schools. Around 10% of first degree entrants from HESA were not matched to the YPMAD. The main reasons for the lower match rate are due to the following:
The YPMAD contains level 2 attainment data for former English school students aged around and up to 36 years (those born from 1984 onwards) so only provides information on younger leaners from English state schools.
The number of entrants aged 30 and over in the HESA data has doubled between 2016/17 and 2021/22, therefore this has increased the percentage of entrants that could not be matched to the YPMAD in recent years.
It is possible that some of the missing level 2 attainment in English and/or maths may be where learners achieved these qualifications a year or more early and thus did not achieve the qualification in the ‘expected year’.
5. Defining completion rate
There are multiple ways a higher education qualifier can be defined. In turn, this affects the overall completion rate.
Below three different methods of completion are considered and how this would affect the completion rate:
No of entrants who complete a course within 5 years at the same provider they started at in year (x) / All entrants in year (x)
This is the method used in this publication.
This results in an under-estimate of all students who complete their degree as does not consider students who may transfer their studies to a different provider or drop-out and start a new course at another provider.
No of entrants who complete any course they started within 5 years from entrant year (x) / All entrants in year (x)
This results in a higher estimation of completion than method (1) as considers that students change their mind and allows them to gain a qualification at any provider.
No of entrants who complete a course within 5 years at the same provider they started at in year (x) / Entrants in year (x) who did not re-enter HE in a subsequent year
This results in a higher estimation of completion than method (1) and (2) as acknowledges that students change their mind but does not consider that those that re-enter HE may also not complete that qualification either.
Caveats
This analysis produces an estimate for completion rates, rather than a regulatory-quality measure of completion.
This analysis does not include students that are still in study. However, it is estimated that around 2% of students at HEPs that have not completed their degree within 5 years are still in study.
This analysis does not consider other factors, beyond prior academic attainment, which may influence a student’s likelihood of completing their degree. For example, student’s personal characteristics and background, higher education provider, or course studied are not controlled for.
Investigation of the learner records on the ILR and HESA showed that there were differences in the routes that entrants took through higher education. Learners studying at FEPs (in the ILR) were more likely to have taken previous level 4 or 5 study, compared to those entrants on the HESA data. Therefore, direct comparisons between completion rates between the two groups should be treated with caution.
6. Removing duplication between the HESA and ILR records
It is necessary to remove duplicate records. Duplicates can exist when a learner is recorded in the ILR data as well as HESA. This may occur in the ILR when a FEP reports on learners in franchised provision, so is recorded by the lead and partner provider. A duplicate record is defined as a pair of records in the HESA and ILR with the same Pupil Matching Reference (PMR) Number. Where duplicate records were identified, the HESA record is retained.
7. Data linkage
In addition to the linkage between HESA and ILR. The two datasets are matched to the YPMADto determine the student’s level 2 attainment using the Pupil Matching Reference Number.
The flow diagram below presents the steps carried out for this analysis and the linkage between the data.
Throughout the publication, all numbers are rounded to the nearest 5 to preserve confidentiality. Percentages are calculated on pre-rounded data but are not published if they are fractions of a small group of people (fewer than 22.5).
Due to rounding, it is possible that the sum of the category percentages may not always total to 100%.
