Introduction
This publication presents a time series of English-domiciled full time first degree entrants at UK higher education providers from 2016/17 to 2021/22 by their level 2 and 3 attainment. Also, the proportion of entrants in 2016/17 and 2017/18 who complete their qualification (level 4+) within 5 years is presented. This allows reasonable duration for course completion given most degrees are intended to be completed in 3 years on average, when studied full time.
For information on data processing and data quality of these statistics, please see the methodology section.
Previous publications on prior attainment and HE outcomes
The Office for Students (OfS) has previously published analysis on prior academic attainment and higher education outcomes, which can be found at the links below:
- Student characteristics data: Entry qualification and subject data dashboard - Office for Students (opens in a new tab)
- Degree outcomes: overall results - Office for Students (opens in a new tab)
- Schools, attainment and the role of higher education - Office for Students (opens in a new tab)
Figures presented in this publication will differ from those published by the OfS due to differences in coverage of the student population. The OfS also publishes on students in English higher education providers only, this publication looks at English-domiciled students at UK-wide providers.
Please note that a different methodology has been used to that of the OfS (which is used for regulation purposes) to produce the completion rates. For example, OfS count students still in study in the numerator of their metric.
Data sources
This publication presents analysis of English-domiciled HE students studying at UK providers from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) ‘Student’ and ‘Student Alternative’ record which is collected by JISC, as well as students studying first degrees at further education providers (FEPs) found in the Individualised Learner Record (ILR) which is collected by the Education and Skills Funding Agency (EFSA).
To produce these statistics, information has been standardised across both the HESA and ILR datasets. Extensive data processing is required to harmonise the information across the HESA and ILR data. Students can be recorded through both collections; duplicates have therefore been removed. Where there was duplication of students across the HESA and ILR records, the HESA record was retained.
The HESA and ILR records collect information on all students studying for higher education qualifications (level 4+) in the UK who follow courses that lead to the award of a qualification or provider credit. These data collections include the following information relevant to this analysis:
- Student domicile
- Course aims (e.g. level 6 study)
- Course completion
- Entry qualifications (e.g. level 3 attainment)
The HESA and ILR data are matched to the Young Persons Matched Administrative Dataset (YPMAD) to determine the student’s level 2 attainment.
More information on the data sources used can be found in the methodology.
Coverage
This release refers only to English-domiciled full time students at UK providers doing their first study aims at education level 6. This excludes students who have already achieved a qualification at level 6 or higher previously. Other exclusions are those intending to undertake an Integrated Master’s Degree, a Foundation Degree and other level 4/5 courses, or a higher level apprenticeship in the cohort year of entry. However, if a student changes their learning aim to another qualification level 4+, and complete within 5 years of study, they are counted as a qualifier.
Analysis is presented for English-domiciled learners to reflect funding eligibility more closely and allow for consistent comparisons across both HESA and ILR sources.
Methodology
There are multiple ways a higher education qualifier can be defined. In turn, this affects the overall completion rate.
Below three different methods of completion are considered along with how this affects the completion rate:
Number of entrants who complete a course within 5 years at the same provider they started at in year (x) / All entrants in year (x)
This is the method used in this publication.
This results in an under-estimate of all students who complete their degree as it does not consider students who may transfer their studies to a different provider or drop-out and start a new course at another provider.
Number of entrants who complete any course they started within 5 years from entrant year (x) / All entrants in year (x)
This results in a higher estimation of completion than method (1) as it considers that students change their mind and allows them to gain qualification at any provider.
Number of entrants who complete a course within 5 years at the same provider they started at in year (x) / Entrants in year (x) who did not re-enter HE in a subsequent year
This results in a higher estimation of completion than method (1) and (2) as it acknowledges that students change their mind but does not consider that those that re-enter HE may also not complete that qualification either.
Caveats
This analysis shows the association between student attainment and completion of higher education qualifications, rather than a regulatory-quality measure of completion.
The analysis on completion does not include students that are still in study. It is estimated that only around 2% of students at UK HEPs who have not completed their degree within 5 years are still in study.
For some students the journey from entering to completing higher education is non-linear. Students can change their mind throughout their studies, from their mode of study (full-time or part-time), qualification aims (e.g. Bachelor's degree to Integrated Master's degree), course studied or provider.
Although this release covers full time first degree entrants, if the student changes their mode of study or qualification aims throughout their studies and complete a level 4+ qualification, they are counted as a qualifier. Students that transfer to another course at the same provider within their studies (as opposed to dropping out and re-entering) and complete their degree are also deemed as a qualifier in this release.
Students who transfer to another provider during their studies or drop out and start a new course at another provider and complete their degree are not counted as a qualifier here (though they will be counted as a qualifier for subsequent years if they re-enter higher education and complete their second course of study). The OfS estimated that 3.2% of English-domiciled first degree entrants in 2016/17 continued their studies but at a different higher education provider. This varies by level 3 qualifications achieved, more information can be found here: Continuation, non-continuation and transfer rates - Office for Students (opens in a new tab).
This publication does not consider other factors beyond prior academic attainment which may influence a student’s likelihood of completing their degree. For example, students’ personal characteristics and background, higher education provider, or course studied are not controlled for.
Investigation of the student records on the HESA and ILR showed that there were differences in the routes that entrants took through higher education. Students studying at further education providers (in the ILR) were more likely to have taken previous level 4 or 5 study, compared to those entrants studying in HE providers (on the HESA Student Record). Therefore, direct comparisons between completion rates between the two groups should be treated with caution as are likely to have different educational backgrounds.
Furthermore, the ILR only covers educational provision in England, unlike HESA which is UK wide. Therefore, coverage of English-domiciled learners studying HE at FEPs outside of England are missing. However, this prevalence is expected to be low.
The Methodology Note for this release also provides further details about the missing information at both level 2 and level 3 attainment in the underlying data sources used. A link is provided below:
Higher Education Entrants and Qualifiers by their Level 2 and 3 Attainment
COVID-19 impacts
Exam assessment
Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the summer exam series was cancelled in both 2020 and 2021, and alternative processes set up to award grades.
GCSE and A/AS level
In 2020, students scheduled to sit GCSE and A/AS level exams in the summer were awarded either a centre assessment grade (CAG, based on what the school or college believed the student would most likely have achieved had exams gone ahead) or their calculated grade using a model developed by Ofqual - whichever was the higher of the two.
In summer 2021, students were awarded grades based on an assessment by their teachers using a range of available evidence (TAG). Students were only assessed on the content they had been taught.
Vocational and technical qualifications
For vocational and technical qualifications (VTQs) in 2020, where centre assessment was used, grades were often available at unit level, and awarding organisations were able to use assessments already completed during the course as a basis for calculating the results they issued. For some qualifications, adapted assessment also meant centre assessment grades were not needed.
Similarly, in 2021 some VTQ grades were decided using teacher-assessed grades, others using normal assessment routes, and some through adapted assessment such as remote invigilation.
For further information on the process to award grades in 2020 and 2021 see the following links:
- [Withdrawn] Taking exams during the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (opens in a new tab)
- [Withdrawn] Awarding qualifications in summer 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (opens in a new tab)
Data
HESA published a COVID-19 insight brief (opens in a new tab) that analyses the impact of the pandemic on student data and trends across the years of enrolments and qualifications across various characteristics.
The varying COVID-19 restrictions will also have impacted on learners as well as provider reporting behaviour via the ILR. For example, a number of providers experienced administrative hold-ups resulting in some achievements that were not reported in the 2019/20 academic year being carried over to 2020/21 or 2021/22.
Additional care should be taken in comparing and interpreting data for academic years 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 in this release.