Financial year 2024-25

Student loan forecasts for England

Student loan forecasts for English borrower entrants, outlay and repayments, with average loan amounts, lifetime repayments and cost to government

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• Produced by: Department for Education
• Published: 3 July 2025

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21 data sets available for download

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• AY headlines

  National

  Data for key statistics headlines in academic years.

  • Number of rows: 3
  • Indicators:
    • Full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2024/25 are expected to borrow on average
    • Half of undergraduate loan borrowers starting in academic year 2024/25 are expected to repay their loan in full within
    • Of full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2024/25,
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type
  • Time period: 2024/25 to 2029/30

  Data set information page
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• FY headlines

  National

  Data for key statistics headlines in financial years.

  • Number of rows: 2
  • Indicators:
    • Government is expected to issue
    • The government is forecast to subsidise
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type
  • Time period: 2024-25 to 2029-30

  Data set information page
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• Table 1: Historical student loan outlay and forecast student loan outlay, by loan product

  National

  Historical student loan outlay and forecast student loan outlay, by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 414
  • Indicators:
    • Loan outlay
  • Filters:
    • Actual or Forecast
    • Loan product
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2012-13 to 2029-30

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• Table 2a: Forecast number of students receiving loans, by loan product

  National

  Forecast number of students receiving loans, by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 308
  • Indicators:
    • Number of students (thousands)
  • Filters:
    • Actual or Forecast
    • Loan product
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2019/20 to 2029/30

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• Table 2b: Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans, by loan product

  National

  Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans, by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 308
  • Indicators:
    • Number of student entrants (thousands)
  • Filters:
    • Actual or Forecast
    • Loan product
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2019/20 to 2029/30

  Data set information page
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• Table 3: Forecast loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest accrued by borrowers & cancelled loans by product

  National

  Forecast loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest accrued by borrowers & cancelled loans by product.

  • Number of rows: 102
  • Indicators:
    • Loan outlay
    • Repayments
    • Capitalised interest
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2024-25 to 2029-30

  Data set information page
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• Table 4a: Forecast stock charge, by loan product

  National

  Forecast stock charge, by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 9
  • Indicators:
    • Stock charge
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2024-25

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• Table 4b: Forecast Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge, by loan product

  National

  Forecast Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge, by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 54
  • Indicators:
    • RAB charge
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2024-25 to 2029-30

  Data set information page
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• Table 4c: Forecast transfer proportion, by loan product

  National

  Forecast transfer proportion, by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 54
  • Indicators:
    • Transfer proportion
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2024-25 to 2029-30

  Data set information page
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• Table 5: Forecast percentage of borrowers expected to fully repay student loans, by loan product​

  National

  Forecast percentage of borrowers expected to fully repay student loans, by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 30
  • Indicators:
    • Proportion expected to fully repay loan
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2022/23 to 2025/26

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• Table 6a: Forecast number of student borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by product

  National

  Forecast number of student borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by product.

  • Number of rows: 58
  • Indicators:
    • Number of borrowers liable to make repayments
    • Number of borrowers liable to make repayments and earning above repayment threshold
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2024-25 to 2029-30

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• Table 6b: Forecast of repayment thresholds, by plan type

  National

  Forecast of repayment thresholds, by plan type.

  • Number of rows: 24
  • Indicators:
    • Repayment threshold
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2024-25 to 2029-30

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• Table 7a: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs​

  National

  Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs.

  • Number of rows: 10
  • Indicators:
    • Current forecast
    • Discount rate 0.2pp higher and average earnings growth 1pp higher each year upto 2030
    • Discount rate 0.2pp higher and average earnings growth 1pp lower each year upto 2030
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
    • Stock or RAB charge
  • Time period: 2024-25

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• Table 7b: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges to key policy inputs​

  National

  Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges to key policy inputs.

  • Number of rows: 10
  • Indicators:
    • Current forecast
    • Repayment threshold £1,000 higher in FY2024-25
    • Repayment threshold £1,000 lower in FY2024-25
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
    • Stock or RAB charge
  • Time period: 2024-25

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• Table 8: Projected long-term face value of student loans in nominal and real terms per financial year

  National

  Projected long-term face value of student loans in nominal and real terms per financial year.

  • Number of rows: 850
  • Indicators:
    • Loan outlay (£ billion)
    • Repayments (£ billion)
    • Capitalised interest (£ billion)
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2024-25 to 2073-74

  Data set information page
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• Table 9: Undergraduate borrowers, 2024/25 cohort: average repayment by income decile, study type and sex breakdowns

  National

  Undergraduate borrowers, 2024/25 cohort: average repayment by income decile, study type and sex breakdowns.

  • Number of rows: 19
  • Indicators:
    • Average lifetime repayments (in FY2024-25 prices)
    • Average loan balance at SRDD (in FY2024-25 prices)
    • Average loan balance at SRDD (nominal)
  • Filters:
    • Lifetime earnings decile
    • Sex
    • Sudy type
  • Time period: 2024/25

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• Table 10: Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income

  National

  Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income.

  • Number of rows: 16
  • Indicators:
    • Number of students
    • Total outlay (£ thousands)
    • Mean outlay per student
  • Filters:
    • HRI band (£ thousands)
  • Time period: 2022/23

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• Table 11: Average loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product

  National

  Average loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product.

  • Number of rows: 66
  • Indicators:
    • Mean average loan outlay per borrower per academic year
    • Median average loan outlay per borrower per academic year
  • Filters:
    • Actual or Forecast
    • Loan product
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2019/20 to 2029/30

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• Table 12: Proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing

  National

  Proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing.

  • Number of rows: 15
  • Indicators:
    • Proportion of borrowers
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Number of years of funding
  • Time period: 2023/24

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• Table 13: Average total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student by course start year and years of funding

  National

  Average total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student by course start year and years of funding.

  • Number of rows: 84
  • Indicators:
    • Mean average total loan amount per borrower per start year
    • Median average total loan amount per borrower per start year
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Number of years of funding
  • Time period: 2023/24 to 2029/30

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• Table 14: Average length of funding per higher education undergraduate student

  National

  Average length of funding per higher education undergraduate student.

  • Number of rows: 2
  • Indicators:
    • Average length of funding per borrower
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2029/30

  Data set information page
  Create table

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Data guidance

Description of the data sets included in this release, including information on data sources, coverage, quality and any data conventions used.

Description

This document describes the data included in the ‘Student loan forecasts for England’ Official Statistics release’s underlying data files.

The methodology document should be referenced alongside this data. It provides information on the data sources, their coverage and quality as well as explaining the methodology used in producing the data.

Coverage

This release provides forecasts for higher education and further education student loans in England. These include forecasts of student numbers, student loan outlay and student loan repayments. Only income-contingent student loans issued to students through Student Finance England are included. The forecasts are based on models developed by the Department for Education (DfE); details of quality and methodology are provided in the methodology document accompanying this publication.

This is the latest in an annual series of statistical publications on student loan forecasts. It covers forecasts produced in April 2025, primarily covering the period from the 2024-25 to 2029-30 financial years. 

File formats and conventions

The following symbols are used in the underlying data files:

     z      data not applicable

     x     data not available

     low     figures which round to 0, but are not 0

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If you have a specific enquiry about Student loan forecasts for England statistics and data:

Higher Education Analysis

Email: he.modelling@education.gov.uk
Contact name: Niall Taylor and Tony Carter

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Telephone: 020 7783 8300

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