Financial year 2023-24

Student loan forecasts for England

Student loan forecasts for English borrower entrants, outlay and repayments, with average loan amounts, lifetime repayments and cost to government

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• Produced by: Department for Education
• Published: 27 June 2024
• Last updated: 3 July 2025

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21 data sets available for download

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• AY headlines

  National

  Data for key statistic headlines in academic years

  • Number of rows: 3
  • Indicators:
    • Full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2023/24 are expected to borrow on average
    • Half of undergraduate loan borrowers starting in academic year 2023/24 are expected to repay their loan in full within
    • Of full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2023/24,
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type
  • Time period: 2023/24 to 2028/29

  Data set information page
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• FY headlines

  National

  Data for key statistic headlines in financial years

  • Number of rows: 2
  • Indicators:
    • Government is expected to issue
    • The government is forecast to subsidise
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Plan type
  • Time period: 2023-24 to 2028-29

  Data set information page
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• Table 1: Historical student loan outlay and forecast student loan outlay, by loan product

  National

  Historical student loan outlay and forecast student loan outlay, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 391
  • Indicators:
    • Loan outlay
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
    • Loan product
  • Time period: 2012-13 to 2028-29

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• Table 2a: Forecast number of students receiving loans, by loan product

  National

  Forecast number of students receiving loans, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 270
  • Indicators:
    • Number of students (thousands)
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
    • Loan product
  • Time period: 2019/20 to 2028/29

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• Table 2b: Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans, by loan product

  National

  Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 280
  • Indicators:
    • Number of student entrants (thousands)
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
    • Loan product
  • Time period: 2019/20 to 2028/29

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• Table 3 Forecast student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest accrued by loan borrowers and cancelled loans, by loan product

  National

  Forecast student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest accrued by loan borrowers and cancelled loans, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 102
  • Indicators:
    • Loan outlay
    • Repayments
    • Capitalised interest
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2023-24 to 2028-29

  Data set information page
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• Table 4a: Forecast stock charge, by loan product

  National

  Forecast stock charge, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 9
  • Indicators:
    • Stock charge
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2023-24

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• Table 4b: Forecast Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge, by loan product

  National

  Forecast Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 54
  • Indicators:
    • RAB charge
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2023-24 to 2028-29

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• Table 4c: Forecast transfer proportion, by loan product

  National

  Forecast transfer proportion, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 54
  • Indicators:
    • Transfer proportion
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2023-24 to 2028-29

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• Table 5: Forecast percentage of borrowers expected to fully repay student loans, by loan product​

  National

  Forecast percentage of borrowers expected to fully repay student loans, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 21
  • Indicators:
    • Proportion expected to fully repay loan
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2022/23 to 2024/25

  Data set information page
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• Table 6a: Forecast number of student loan borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by loan product

  National

  Forecast number of student loan borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 66
  • Indicators:
    • Number of borrowers liable to make repayments
    • Number of borrowers liable to make repayments and earning above repayment threshold
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2023-24 to 2028-29

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• Table 6b: Forecast of repayment thresholds, by plan type​

  National

  Forecast of repayment thresholds, by plan type

  • Number of rows: 24
  • Indicators:
    • Repayment threshold
  • Filters:
    • Student loan plan type
  • Time period: 2023-24 to 2028-29

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• Table 7a: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs​

  National

  Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs

  • Number of rows: 10
  • Indicators:
    • Current forecast
    • Discount rate 0.2pp higher and average earnings growth 1pp higher each year upto 2030
    • Discount rate 0.2pp higher and average earnings growth 1pp lower each year upto 2030
  • Filters:
    • Stock or RAB charge
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2023-24

  Data set information page
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• Table 7b: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges to key policy inputs​

  National

  Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key policy inputs

  • Number of rows: 10
  • Indicators:
    • Current forecast
    • Discount rate 0.2pp higher and average earnings growth 1pp higher each year upto 2030
    • Discount rate 0.2pp higher and average earnings growth 1pp lower each year upto 2030
  • Filters:
    • Stock or RAB charge
    • Loan type
    • Plan type of loan
  • Time period: 2023-24

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• Table 8 Projected long term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product

  National

  Projected long term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 650
  • Indicators:
    • Loan outlay (£ billion)
    • Repayments (£ billion)
    • Outstanding loan balance at the start of financial year (£ billion)
  • Filters:
    • Plan type of loan
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2023-24 to 2072-73

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• Table 9: Average loan balance at Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD), average loan balance at SRDD in FY2023-24 prices, average lifetime repayments in FY2023-24 prices, median years liable to repay, and proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms of undergraduate borrowers, by lifetime decile​

  National

  Average loan balance at Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD), average loan balance at SRDD in FY2023-24 prices, average lifetime repayments in FY2023-24 prices, median years liable to repay, and proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms of undergraduate borrowers, by lifetime decile

  • Number of rows: 11
  • Indicators:
    • Average loan balance at SRDD (nominal)
    • Average loan balance at SRDD (in FY2023-24 prices)
    • Average lifetime repayments (in FY2023-24 prices)
  • Filters:
    • Lifetime Earnings Decile
  • Time period: 2023/24

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• Table 10: Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income

  National

  Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income

  • Number of rows: 16
  • Indicators:
    • Total outlay (£ thousands)
    • Mean outlay per student
    • Number of students
  • Filters:
    • HRI band (£ thousands)
  • Time period: 2021/22

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• Table 11: Average loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product

  National

  Average loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product

  • Number of rows: 60
  • Indicators:
    • Mean average loan outlay per borrower per academic year
    • Median average loan outlay per borrower per academic year
  • Filters:
    • Loan type
    • Loan product
    • Actual or Forecast
  • Time period: 2019/20 to 2028/29

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• Table 12: Proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing

  National

  Proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing

  • Number of rows: 35
  • Indicators:
    • Proportion of borrowers
  • Filters:
    • Plan type
    • Loan type
    • Number of years of funding
  • Time period: 2022/23

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• Table 13: Average total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student by course start year and number of years of funding

  National

  Average total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student by course start year and number of years of funding

  • Number of rows: 168
  • Indicators:
    • Mean average total loan amount per borrower per start year
    • Median average total loan amount per borrower per start year
  • Filters:
    • Plan type
    • Loan type
    • Number of years of funding
  • Time period: 2022/23 to 2028/29

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• Table 14: Average length of funding per higher education undergraduate student

  National

  Average length of funding per higher education undergraduate student

  • Number of rows: 6
  • Indicators:
    • Average length of funding per borrower
  • Filters:
    • Plan type
    • Loan type
  • Time period: 2028/29

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Data guidance

Description of the data sets included in this release, including information on data sources, coverage, quality and any data conventions used.

Description

This document describes the data included in the ‘Student loan forecasts for England’ Official Statistics release’s underlying data files.

The methodology document should be referenced alongside this data. It provides information on the data sources, their coverage and quality as well as explaining the methodology used in producing the data.

Coverage

This release provides the latest information on forecasts for higher education and further education student loans in England. These include forecasts of student entrants, student loan outlay and student loan repayments. Only income-contingent student loans issued to students through Student Finance England are included. The forecasts are based on models developed by the Department for Education (DfE); details of quality and methodology are provided in the methodology document accompanying this publication. 

This is the latest in an annual series of statistics publications on student loan forecasts. It covers forecasts produced in April 2024, primarily covering the period 2023-24 to 2028-29.

File formats and conventions

The following symbol is used in the underlying data files as follows: 

     z      data not applicable

     x     data not available

     low     figures which round to 0, but are not 0

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If you have a specific enquiry about Student loan forecasts for England statistics and data:

Higher Education Analysis

Email: he.modelling@education.gov.uk
Contact name: Niall Taylor and Tony Carter

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