Actual (2020) and projected pupil numbers by school type, England
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | ||
| State-funded nursery & primary schools | 4,647 | 4,635 | 4,597 | 4,531 | 4,454 | 4,395 | 4,345 | |
| year on year change | -12 | -38 | -66 | -77 | -59 | -50 | ||
| State-funded secondary schools | 3,003 | 3,072 | 3,133 | 3,193 | 3,231 | 3,228 | 3,216 | |
| year on year change | 69 | 61 | 60 | 38 | -3 | -12 | ||
| State-funded special schools | 113 | 117 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 120 | 119 | |
| year on year change | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | ||
| Alternative provision settings | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | |
| year on year change | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total state-funded schools | 7,778 | 7,839 | 7,865 | 7,862 | 7,824 | 7,761 | 7,699 | |
| year on year change | 61 | 26 | -3 | -38 | -63 | -62 | ||
Source: national population projections (update to the 2020 model). Figures in 000s
- The actual population in state-funded schools in 2020 was 7,778,000. This is projected to decrease by 398,000 (to 7,380,000) over the next ten years to 2030.
- The original 2020 projection model estimated a population of 7,370,000 in 2030, so the updated model shows an increase of 10,000 on the total at the end of the projection period.
- The difference is primarily because of the participation rates (the proportion of the overall population being in school) being very slightly higher in the updated model, due to the ONS population estimates for 2019 being slightly smaller than the figures previously forecast for that year.
Early years figure
- This age group includes 4 year olds in reception class, which virtually all children attend, as well as the younger ages. Overall it has a higher proportion of children attending part-time and therefore is best reported as a full-time equivalent (FTE) population.
- On that basis the FTE population of under 5 year olds in state funded education is projected to be 783,000 in 2026. This is 8% lower than the actual figure for 2020 (852,000).
- This population decrease is due to the lower number of births, which directly feed into the model.
State-funded nursery & primary schools
- The overall population in these school types is projected to be 4,345,000 in 2026. This is 302,000 lower than the actual figure in 2020 (4,647,000).
- The figure for 2026 is 3,000 higher than was forecast in the original 2020 model, a difference of 0.1%.
State-funded secondary schools
- The secondary school population is projected to be 3,216,000 in 2026. This is 213,000 higher than the total in 2020 (3,003,000).
- The figure for 2026 is 6,000 higher than was forecast in the original 2020 model, a difference of 0.2%.
- The pattern of change in the secondary school population (peaking in 2024 then very slowly starting to drop) is unchanged.