Methodology

UK revenue from education related exports and transnational education activity

Published: 21 March 2024

Introduction

Readers should note that the export estimates in this publication are based on an experimental methodology designed to accurately estimate, using the latest available evidence and data, the different aspects of the UK’s trade in education related goods and services. This includes capturing both direct expenditure and the associated expenditure that occurs where an international student visits the UK to consume those goods and services. As the methodology has been developed specifically for this purpose, the estimates are not necessarily directly comparable with goods and services breakdowns contained in ONS’ Pink Book (here) estimates, which measure the balance of payments for the UK

This technical document provides further information on the methodology used to calculate the revenue from education related exports and transnational education activities for 2019 and 2020. Mostly, this is the same methodology used in previous publications: revenue for education related exports and transnational education activities in 2018. Any changes from our previous methodology will be outlined in the text below. For brevity, the underlying figures used to obtain the overall figure have not been included. It is possible to calculate these figures using the steps outlined in the methodology.

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Definition of exports and transnational education

Exports

Exports are transactions between UK residents and non-residents. In most of the transactions represented in this report, the non-residents travel to the UK to procure their education-related services from a UK-based organisation. Whether tuitions fees are paid in advance of arrival or once in the UK does not impact upon the nature of the transaction.

In addition to fees, any type of transaction that is carried out by the non-resident while in the UK also counts as international trade. Therefore, any money spent on living costs is counted as a UK export.

It should be noted that in our export statistics the full value of the transaction is counted as an export; no adjustment is made to subtract any costs involved in delivering the service, or in producing and shipping the goods overseas.

Transnational education (TNE) activity

Some UK-based organisations will have subsidiaries or long-term bases outside the UK from where they sell their services. In such situations, much of the initial value of transactions will flow out of the business into the local economy – local staff, rent, consumables, etc. – only the profit will be available to be repatriated to the UK.

Additionally, where there are operational profits these may be reinvested in the foreign operations rather than being repatriated. Unlike exports where the full value of the transaction is counted, here we only count the proportion of the revenue that is repatriated to the UK.

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Data Sources

Summary

The data used to estimate education related exports and transnational education (TNE) activity are built up from many different data sources, most of which were not constructed for the purpose of estimating the export value of education services and products. This data varies in quality and in security of supply. The following sources of data have been used:

Official data sources

This includes data supplied by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) relating to, for example, international student numbers studying at Higher Education Providers. It also includes visa application data from the Home Office. We have an understanding that the quality of this data is high and there is good reason to expect a continuation of supply.

Research evidence

Some of the figures rely on research evidence from a single study and on extrapolation of these figures to fill in gaps over time. The reports used are indicated where this is the case.

Market research from trade associations and representative bodies

These data are of varying quality and much of it is relatively new. As these organisations are often the sole source of such information it is not possible to obtain a complete understanding of the level of accuracy. Furthermore, some of the data is provided to the department through the good will of individual organisations and so there is a greater level of risk that data collection may be changed or discontinued in the future.

Publicly available data from private companies

This is the type of information published in annual reports and financial statements. In these instances, the data is not necessarily captured or presented for the purposes we are using them for so there are questions around the appropriateness of its use.

Changes in current prices

These calculations are based on some data that is not regularly collected. In these instances, a GDP deflator has been applied to uprate the value in current prices. The GDP deflators used are those published by the HMT.

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Higher Education Providers - 2019

Fee Income

Fee income data are compiled from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) finance data record. HESA record the aggregate value of fees at Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) for EU and non-EU domiciled students. These values have been used without further calculation. Since the previous publication, HESA has included new providers in its financial data collection. This publication uses the latest financial data, which restates tuition fee income figures across multiple years to include new providers. Therefore, tuition fee figures in this publication sometimes differ from previous years.

Scholarships

Since scholarships are publicly funded the value of awards to non-EU students has been subtracted from overall fee income. The following scholarships have been included in these calculations:

Cost to government of fee loans

EU students can access student loans for fees. The proportion of these loans that are not paid back is subtracted from the fee income as this value is funded by Government. DfE does not estimate the proportion of the value of fee loans to EU students. The RAB charge for all full-time higher education student loans is currently estimated to be around 53% for 2019-20. This figure is multiplied by undergraduate EU fee income in 2019/20 to give a high-level estimate of the RAB charge to government.

Living expenditure

Weekly living costs for EU and non-EU domiciled students are estimated using the Student Income and Expenditure Survey (SIES). For 2019/20, the average weekly living costs are derived from the ad-hoc release published in support of the Post-18 Review of Education.

The calculation for average weekly living costs is derived from the mean cost of a full-time student living away from home in an academic year (39 weeks).

The annual living cost is calculated by multiplying the average weekly cost by the length of stay in the UK, this is assumed to be:

39 weeks for undergraduate EU students (it is assumed they are more likely to travel to their country of origin during the holidays)
42 weeks for undergraduate non-EU students (it is assumed they are less likely to travel to their country of origin during the holidays)
52 weeks for postgraduate students (reflects the longer course duration)

Erasmus+

Statistics on the number of Erasmus+ students coming into the UK are published by Eurostat. Higher Education students who study in the UK under the Erasmus+ scheme do not pay fees to the UK institution but to the partner institution in their country of origin. The only contribution included in calculations for Erasmus+ students is therefore living expenditure. It is assumed that all Erasmus+ students are full time, undergraduate students studying for 39 weeks.

Research and other contracts

The value of research grants and contracts split between UK and international sources are captured through data HEIs return to HESA. This incorporates export income from academic departments' research grants and contracts, academic services and administrative/central services.

International Intellectual Property income

Information on the total value of HE Intellectual Property (IP) revenue comes from the Higher Education - Business and Community Interaction survey (HE-BCI). This provides data on the total (domestic and international) income from IP.

To estimate the proportion of HE income from IP that is exported, the estimate from London Economics research is used. London Economics took data on the total revenue and export revenue for the R&D sector in 2008. They found that 38 per cent of the R&D sector revenue was generated through exports. It is assumed that this same proportion can be applied to the education sector.

Other overseas income

This is calculated using London Economics’ research, which conducted a survey of Tier 4 sponsors. HEIs responding to questions on income sources were also asked about any income that they earn from an overseas source that is not covered elsewhere. It is therefore not clear what is covered in this category. Results were grossed up from 14 responses to the population of 165 HEIs, suggesting a high level of uncertainty in these estimates. London Economics estimated £61.6 million of HE income from other sources in 2008/09.

The growth rate over the 2004/05 to 2008/09 period was calculated by London Economics to be 12.3 per cent. This was carried forward to future values.

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Higher Education Providers - 2020

Fee Income

Scholarships

Since scholarships are publicly funded the value of awards to non-EU students has been subtracted from overall fee income. The following scholarships have been included in these calculations:

Cost to government of fee loans

EU students can access student loans for fees . The proportion of these loans that are not paid back is subtracted from the fee income as this value is funded by Government. DfE does not estimate the proportion of the value of fee loans to EU students. The RAB charge for all full-time higher education student loans is currently estimated to be around 53% for 2020-21. This figure is multiplied by undergraduate EU fee income in 2020/21 to give a high-level estimate of the RAB charge to government.

Living expenditure

Weekly living costs for EU and non-EU domiciled students are estimated using the Student Income and Expenditure Survey (SIES). For 2020/10, the average weekly living costs are derived from the ad-hoc release published in support of the Post-18 Review of Education.

The calculation for average weekly living costs is derived from the mean cost of a full-time student living away from home in an academic year (39 weeks).

The annual living cost is calculated by multiplying the average weekly cost by the length of stay in the UK, this is assumed to be:

39 weeks for undergraduate EU students (it is assumed they are more likely to travel to their country of origin during the holidays)

42 weeks for undergraduate non-EU students (it is assumed they are less likely to travel to their country of origin during the holidays)

52 weeks for postgraduate students (reflects the longer course duration)

The number of students split by full-time/part-time, EU/non-EU, undergraduate/ postgraduate in each year is taken from the HESA student record. These numbers are then multiplied by the course length (weeks) and by the weekly living costs to allow a calculation of the aggregate level of living costs for EU and non-EU students. For part time students there is an assumption that they will stay for the same number of weeks in the UK as a counterpart full time student, but they will also be working. However, the estimated employment income earned in the UK is not subtracted from the living expenditure because it does not agree with the standard practice for calculating exports. See 2017’s publication for more detail. Finally, in order to estimate the figure for the academic year 2020/21, a GDP deflator has been applied to the figure.

Erasmus+

Research and other contracts

International Intellectual Property income

To estimate the proportion of HE income from IP that is exported, the estimate from London Economics research is used. London Economics took data on the total revenue and export revenue for the R&D sector in 2008. They found that 37.5 per cent of the R&D sector revenue was generated through exports. It is assumed that this same proportion can be applied to the education sector.

Other overseas income

The growth rate over the 2004/05 to 2008/09 period was calculated by London Economics to be 12.3 per cent. This was carried forward to future values.

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Higher Education Providers - 2021

Fee Income

Fee income data are compiled from the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) finance data record[1]. HESA record the aggregate value of fees at Higher Education Providers (HEPs) for EU and non-EU domiciled students. These values have been used without further calculation. Since the previous publication, HESA has included new providers in its financial data collection. This publication uses the latest financial data, which restates tuition fee income figures across multiple years to include new providers. Therefore, tuition fee figures in this publication may differ from previous years.

Scholarships

Scholarship revenue awarded to non-EU students had been previously substraced from overall fee income. However, as outlined by MSITS[2], “goods and services may be purchased by the persons concerned or by another party on their behalf… tuition and living costs of a student may be paid by a government” or any other institution, including the provider. Therefore, in this iteration of the publication, scholarships revenue will be added on to overall fee income. The following scholarships have been included in these calculations.

Chevening[3]
Commonwealth Scholarships[4]
Marshall Scholarships[5]

EU higher education students and student finance access

EU, other EEA and Swiss nationals, and their family members who are covered by the Withdrawal Agreements (the EU Withdrawal Agreement, EEA-EFTA Separation Agreement and the Swiss Citizens’ Rights Agreement) continue to have access to home fee status and student financial support on broadly the same basis as previously. Generally, this covers those who:

were living in the UK by 31 December 2020 having exercised a right to reside under EU law, the EEA Agreement or the Free Movement of Persons Agreement, and;
continue to live in the UK after 31 December 2020.

Therefore, we have assumed that EU students who enrolled onto a course at a UK HE provider before 1 January 2021 can access student finance support like home students . The proportion of these loans that are not paid back is subtracted from the fee income as this value is funded by Government. DfE does not estimate the proportion of the value of fee loans to EU students. The RAB charge for all full-time higher education student loans is currently estimated to be around 44% for 2021-22[6]. This figure is multiplied by the proportion of undergraduate EU fee income estimated to have started prior to 1 January 2021, to give a high-level estimate of the RAB charge to government.

For students starting from 1 January 2021 onwards, we have assumed that they would not be eligible for the home status. They would therefore not have access to student finance and there would be no RAB charge associated with them.

We used HESA Figure 9[7] data to estimate the proportion of undergraduate first-year students in 2020/21 and 2021/22 calendar years and subtracted this from the EU RAB estimates explained above.

Living expenditure

Weekly living costs for EU and non-EU domiciled students are estimated using the Student Income and Expenditure Survey (SIES). For 2021/122, the average weekly living costs are derived from the updated version of the SIES for the 2021/22 academic year [8].

The calculation for average weekly living costs is derived from the mean cost of a full-time student living away from home in an academic year (39 weeks).

The annual living cost is calculated by multiplying the average weekly cost by the length of stay in the UK, this is assumed to be:

39 weeks for undergraduate EU students (it is assumed they are more likely to travel to their country of origin during the holidays)
42 weeks for undergraduate non-EU students (it is assumed they are less likely to travel to their country of origin during the holidays)
52 weeks for postgraduate students (reflects the longer course duration)

The number of students split by full-time/part-time, EU/non-EU, undergraduate/ postgraduate in each year is taken from the HESA student record[9]. These numbers are then multiplied by the course length (weeks) and by the weekly living costs to allow a calculation of the aggregate level of living costs for EU and non-EU students.[10]

Erasmus+

Statistics on the number of Erasmus+ students coming into the UK are published by Eurostat[11]. Higher Education students who study in the UK under the Erasmus+ scheme do not pay fees to the UK institution but to the partner institution in their country of origin. The only contribution included in calculations for Erasmus+ students is therefore living expenditure. It is assumed that all Erasmus+ students are full time, undergraduate students studying for 39 weeks.

Research and other contracts

The value of research grants and contracts split between UK and international sources are captured through data HEIs return to HESA[12]. This incorporates export income from academic departments' research grants and contracts, academic services and administrative/central services.

International Intellectual Property income

Information on the total value of HE Intellectual Property (IP) revenue comes from the Higher Education - Business and Community Interaction survey (HE-BCI)[13]. This provides data on the total (domestic and international) income from IP.

To estimate the proportion of HE income from IP that is exported, the estimate from London Economics research is used[14]. London Economics took data on the total revenue and export revenue for the R&D sector in 2008. They found that 37.5 per cent of the R&D sector revenue was generated through exports. It is assumed that this same proportion can be applied to the education sector.

Other overseas income

This is calculated using London Economics’ research[15], which conducted a survey of Tier 4 sponsors. HEIs responding to questions on income sources were also asked about any income that they earn from an overseas source that is not covered elsewhere. It is therefore not clear what is covered in this category. Results were grossed up from 14 responses to the population of 165 HEIs, suggesting a high level of uncertainty in these estimates. London Economics estimated £61.6 millions of HE income from other sources in 2008/09.

The growth rate over the 2004/05 to 2008/09 period was calculated by London Economics to be 12.3 per cent. This was carried forward to future values.

Pathway providers

Pathway Provider Programmes help to prepare international students to study at UK universities. Over 90% of the universities in the UK have a pathway provision . To estimate the revenue generated from exports, data has been collected from the following six pathway providers: CEG, INTO University Partnerships, Kaplan, Navitas, Oxford International, and Study Group. The following metrics are collected:

Number of international students
Tuition revenue (total gross revenue)
Any other revenue from non-UK students
Total Revenue

Data is sourced directly from Kaplan.

[1] HESA Finance Record - https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/providers/finances/

[2] Manual of statistics for international trade in services: seriesm_86rev1e.pdf (un.org)

[3] FCO Annual Reports: FCDO annual report and accounts 2021 to 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

[4] Annual reports of the Commonwealth Scholarship Commission. Scholarship expenditure is estimated as total programme expenditure minus 'other programme expenditure'. FCDO annual report and accounts 2021 to 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

[5] Annual reports of the Marshall Aid Commemoration Commission. FCDO annual report and accounts 2021 to 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

[6] https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-student-loan-forecasts

[7] https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/sb265/figure-9

[8] Student Income and Expenditure Survey 2021 to 2022 Report (publishing.service.gov.uk)

[9] HESA Student Record - https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/students

[10] For part time students there is an assumption that they will stay for the same number of weeks in the UK as a counterpart full time student, but they will also be working. However, the estimated employment income earned in the UK is not subtracted from the living expenditure because it does not agree with the standard practice for calculating exports. See 2017’s publication for more detail: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/630741/UK_Revenue_from_Educational_Exports_2010-14.pdf/.

[11] UK Erasmus+ 2020 in numbers (europa.eu)

[12] HESA Finance Record - https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/providers/finances/

[13] http://www.hefce.ac.uk/ke/hebci/.

[14] https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/32395/11-980-estimating-value-of-education-exports.pdf.

[15] https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/32395/11-980-estimating-value-of-education-exports.pdf.

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Further Education - 2019

The number of international students in Further Education (FE) has been estimated using Home Office visa application data. This data is only submitted by non-EU applicants, and therefore does not include the number of EU students studying at FE providers. This means our figures will not fully capture this component of the value of education exports.

For this publication, application data was needed for the calendar year 2019, however, due to data issues it has not been possible to breakdown the numbers of applications for Further Education in Quarter 4 2019. Instead, we use the number of applications in Quarter 4 2018 as a proxy.

The volume figures are revised downwards to reflect the number of applications that are granted. This is estimated based on the proportion of Tier 4 applications granted, which will include students in other education sectors, not just FE.

In 2020, an estimated 97 per cent of Tier 4 – general student (main applicant) - visa applications were granted. Using this method, approximately 13,200 non-EU students were estimated to be studying at FE colleges in 2019.

Fee expenditure

The average value of tuition fees for international FE students is estimated using a survey conducted by the Association of Colleges.

Living expenditure

It is assumed that the weekly living expenditure for FE international students is the same as for HE students. The course duration is assumed to be 36 weeks. To calculate both fees and living expenditure for the 2019 calendar year, migration data for the first three quarters of 2019 were used, as well as fourth quarter data for 2018. Due to the lack of data availability for quarter four in 2019, it has been assumed that fourth quarter data for 2018 and 2019 would be similar in value.

Other income

This estimate is based on a London Economics’ survey of Tier 4 sponsors. FE colleges were asked to state what other income they receive that is not covered elsewhere. The responses of 21 providers (out of 429) have been scaled up to represent the whole sector.

It is difficult to identify what has been included in other income, as institutions have not specified.

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Further Education - 2020

The number of international students in Further Education (FE) has been estimated using Home Office visa application data. In 2020, 2,039 visa applications were sponsored by tertiary, Further education or other colleges. This data is only submitted by non-EU applicants, and therefore does not include the number of EU students studying at FE providers. This means our figures will not fully capture this component of the value of education exports. Figures from 2017 onwards have been retrospectively updated following an error identified during quality assurance.

For this publication, application data was needed for the calendar year 2020, however, due to data issues it has not been possible to breakdown the numbers of applications for Further Education in Quarter 4 2020. Instead, we use the number of applications in Quarter 4 2019 as a proxy.

An estimated 98 per cent of visa applications were granted. Using this method, approximately 10,900 non-EU students were estimated to be studying at FE colleges in 2020.

Fee expenditure

The average value of tuition fees for international FE students is estimated using a survey conducted by the Association of Colleges.

Living expenditure

It is assumed that the weekly living expenditure for FE international students is the same as for HE students. The course duration is assumed to be 36 weeks. To calculate both fees and living expenditure for the 2020 calendar year, migration data for the first three quarters of 2020 were used, as well as fourth quarter data for 2019. Due to the lack of data availability for quarter four in 2020, it has been assumed that fourth quarter data for 2019 and 2020 would be similar in value.

Other income

It is difficult to identify what has been included in other income, as institutions have not specified.

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Further Education - 2021

The number of international students in Further Education (FE) has been estimated using Home Office visa application data[1]. This data is only submitted by non-EU applicants, and therefore does not include the number of EU students studying at FE providers. This means our figures will not fully capture this component of the value of education exports.

An estimated 98 per cent of visa applications were granted. Using this method, approximately 10,360non-EU students were estimated to be studying at FE colleges in 2021.

Fee expenditure

The average value of tuition fees for international FE students is estimated using a survey conducted by the Association of Colleges[3]. Data for the 2021/22 academic year was unavailable, therefore this figure is assumed constant from the 2020/21 academic year.

Living expenditure

It is assumed that the weekly living expenditure for FE international students is the same as for HE students. The course duration is assumed to be 36 weeks. To calculate both fees and living expenditure for the 2021 calendar year, migration data[4] for the first three quarters of 2021 were used, as well as fourth quarter data for 2020. Due to the lack of data availability for quarter four in 2021, it has been assumed that fourth quarter data for 2020 and 2021 would be similar in value.

Other income

It is difficult to identify what has been included in other income, as institutions have not specified.

[1] In 2021, 2,039 visa applications were sponsored by tertiary, Further education or other colleges https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/immigration-statistics-quarterly-release, sponsorship tables.

[2] In 2021 an estimated 98% of ’Tier 4 – general student (main applicant)’ visa applications were granted. See visas-summary-dec-2021-tables.ods (live.com) for more detail as to how this figure was calculated.

[3] AoC-International-Survey-Report-2020-1.pdf (d4hfzltwt4wv7.cloudfront.net)

[4]Immigration statistics data tables, year ending December 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

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Independent Schools - 2019

These estimates are based on the Independent Schools Council (ISC) Annual Census This provides estimates of the number of EU and non-EU students studying at member schools.

Since not all EU and non-EU student study at ISC member schools, Department for Education data on independent schools has been used together with ISC data to identify the number of non-UK students studying at British Independent Schools.

Based on ISC data, 92 per cent of students are identified as boarders. Using this figure, it is possible to estimate the course fees and living expenditure of international students studying at independent schools.

No estimate for the value of living expenditure for day pupils has been produced as there is no appropriate data source for this information.

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Independent Schools - 2020

These estimates are based on the Independent Schools Council (ISC) Annual Census. This provides estimates of the number of EU and non-EU students studying at member schools.

Based on ISC data, 91 per cent of students are identified as boarders. Using this figure, it is possible to estimate the course fees and living expenditure of international students studying at independent schools.

No estimate for the value of living expenditure for day pupils has been produced as there is no appropriate data source for this information.

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Independent Schools - 2021

These estimates are based on the Independent Schools Council (ISC) Annual Census[1] This provides estimates of the number of EU and non-EU students studying at member schools.

Since not all EU and non-EU student study at ISC member schools, Department for Education data on independent schools[2] has been used together with ISC data to identify the number of non-UK students studying at British Independent Schools.

No estimate for the value of living expenditure for day pupils has been produced as there is no appropriate data source for this information.

[1]https://www.isc.co.uk/research/annual-census/.

[2] https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-school-and-pupil-numbers.

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English Language Training - 2019

All estimates for the value of English Language Training (ELT) in the UK are obtained from the Study Travel Magazine, which publishes a Global Market Report each year. This report estimates the revenue generated (from tuition fees and living expenditure) by ELT in the UK. In 2019, Study Travel Magazine survey estimated UK revenue from the English Language market was $2,683,040,353, which is £2,119,602,000 (using the survey’s quoted of exchange rate £0.790 to the dollar). It is assumed that all ELT delivered in the UK will be for international students, so all revenue can be counted as an export.

The ELT market is made up of public and private providers. State sector members have not be included due to risk of double counting. In 2012, 86 per cent of ELT providers were private providers, the remainder were public providers. As such, the Global Market Report revenue figure for the UK has been reduced by 14 per cent to reflect the risk of double counting public providers in FE estimates.

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English Language Training - 2020

All estimates for the value of English Language Training (ELT) in the UK are obtained from the Study Travel Magazine, which publishes a Global Market Report each year. This report estimates the revenue generated (from tuition fees and living expenditure) by ELT in the UK. In 2020, Study Travel Magazine survey estimated UK revenue from the English Language market was $686,930,559, which is £,542,675,142 (using the 2019 survey’s quoted of exchange rate £0.790 to the dollar, the 2020 exchange rate was not available at time of publication). It is assumed that all ELT delivered in the UK will be for international students, so all revenue can be counted as an export.

The ELT market is made up of public and private providers. State sector members have not been included due to risk of double counting. In 2012, 86 per cent of ELT providers were private providers, the remainder were public providers. As such, the Global Market Report revenue figure for the UK has been reduced by 14 per cent to reflect the risk of double counting public providers in FE estimates.

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English Language Training- 2021

All estimates for the value of English Language Training (ELT) in the UK are obtained from the Study Travel Magazine, which publishes a Global Market Report each year[1]. This report estimates the revenue generated (from tuition fees and living expenditure) by ELT in the UK[2]. It is assumed that all ELT delivered in the UK will be for international students, so all revenue can be counted as an export.

The ELT market is made up of public and private providers[3]. In 2012, 86 per cent of ELT providers were private providers, the remainder were public providers. As such, the Global Market Report revenue figure for the UK has been reduced by 14 per cent to reflect the risk of double counting public providers in FE estimates.

[1] Direction: Global Market Report - StudyTravel Network

[2] In 2021, Study Travel Magazine survey estimated UK revenue from the English Language market was $ 2,749,820,322, which is £663,035,000 (using the 2019 survey’s quoted of exchange rate £0.790 to the dollar, the 2020 and 2021 exchange rate were not available at time of publication).

[3]englishuk.com/uploads/assets/intelligence/2022/English_UK_Student_Statistics_Report_2022_Exec_Summary.pdf– State sector members have not been included due to risk of double counting.

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Education Products and Services - 2019

Education related publishing

Education related publishing covers school, ELT and academic and professional books that are published and exported overseas, either physically or digitally.

The Publishing Association (PA) collects data on the sales of members and non-members. This data is scaled up to produce an estimate for the whole sector.

Education related equipment

Education related broadcasting

These estimates are based on publicly available figures from annual reports from the BBC, Channel 4, and the Open University; where this data is not available, the figures are assumed constant from the previous year as with the BBC education related broadcasting figure for 2019. These broadcasters account for the majority of education-related broadcasting.

Using annual accounts and OFCOM reports, it is possible to estimate education related broadcasting revenue. A London Economics report assumes that 10 per cent of this broadcasting revenue is from exports. This figure has been applied to calculate the revenue repatriated to the UK from education related broadcasting.

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Education Products and Services - 2020

Education related publishing

Education related publishing covers school, ELT and academic and professional books that are published and exported overseas, either physically or digitally.

The Publishing Association (PA) collects data on the sales of members and non-members. This data is scaled up to produce an estimate for the whole sector. The data for 2020 was inaccessible, therefore the 2019 figure was adjusted for inflation to get an estimate for 2020.

Education related equipment

Education related broadcasting

These estimates are based on publicly available figures from annual reports from the BBC, Channel 4, and the Open University; where this data is not available, the figures are assumed constant from the previous year as with the BBC education related broadcasting figure for 2019 and 2020. These broadcasters account for the majority of education-related broadcasting.

Using annual accounts and OFCOM reports, it is possible to estimate education related broadcasting revenue. As OFCOM data on broadcasting revenue was not available for both 2019 and 2020, figures for these years have been assumed constant from 2018.

A London Economics report assumes that 10 per cent of this broadcasting revenue is from exports. This figure has been applied to calculate the revenue repatriated to the UK from education related broadcasting.

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Education Products and Services - 2021

Education Products and Services

Education related publishing

Education related publishing covers school, ELT and academic and professional books that are published and exported overseas, either physically or digitally.

The Publishing Association (PA)[1] collects data on the sales of members and non-members. This data is scaled up to produce an estimate for the whole sector. As data is behind a paywall, direct contact with the PA was needed to access the data.

Education related equipment

Education-related equipment includes either physical products or software supplied to customers in the education sector. This data is collected through a survey by the British Educational Suppliers Association (BESA)[2]. This figure has been kept constant from 2020 due to inability to access data directly from the source providers.

Education related broadcasting

These estimates are based on publicly available figures from annual reports from the BBC[3], Channel 4[4], and the Open University[5]; where this data is not available, the figures are assumed constant from the previous year as with the BBC education related broadcasting figure for 2019, 2020 and 2021.. These broadcasters account for the majority of education-related broadcasting.

Using annual accounts and OFCOM reports[6], it is possible to estimate education related broadcasting revenue. As OFCOM data on broadcasting revenue was not available for 2019, 2020, and 2021 figures for these years have been assumed constant from 2018.

[1] Homepage - Publishers Association

[2] The voice of UK education suppliers - BESA

[3]bbc.co.uk/aboutthebbc/documents/ara-2022-23.pdf

[4] assets-corporate.channel4.com/_flysystem/s3/2022-07/Channel 4 - Annual Report 2021 - FINAL %28Accessible%29_0.pdf

[5] OPEN UNIVERSITY WORLDWIDE LIMITED filing history - Find and update company information - GOV.UK (company-information.service.gov.uk)

[6] Ofcom's second Performance Report on the BBC: Interactive data - Ofcom

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Transnational Education Activity - 2019

Higher Education

The number of HE TNE students enrolled at UK institutions overseas can be identified from HESA aggregate Offshore Records (AOR).

The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) conducted research in 2012/13 looking at the average student revenue from HE TNE students. The estimates for HE TNE have been produced by multiplying the average revenue figures by TNE enrolments for 2019. 2019 figures are calculated by weighting 18/19 and 19/20 academic years.

Further education

The estimates for TNE income for FE colleges is based on a London Economics Survey of Tier 4 sponsors. This estimate was based on a small number of responses (23) and scaled up to represent the sector. A GDP deflator has been applied to estimate the value in 2019.

Schools

We are currently reviewing this figure and the methodology behind it, as such our estimate has a significant level of uncertainty associated with it. We have uplifted last year’s total revenue received by schools who deliver some part of the curriculum to students outside an English-speaking country by inflation and converted to sterling, using rates published by HMRC, to be consistent with previous iterations of this publication. As before, an arbitrary 10 per cent of the revenue from these activities is estimated to be repatriated to the UK. This proportion is not based on any empirical evidence.

English Language Training

This figure is based on accounts published by the British Council and Pearson, who report on the income generated from activity that develops a wider knowledge of the English Language. It is assumed that 10 per cent of the income generated from ELT overseas activity from the British Council and Pearson is repatriated to the UK.

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Transnational Education Activity - 2020

Higher Education

The number of HE TNE students enrolled at UK institutions overseas can be identified from HESA aggregate Offshore Records (AOR).

The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) conducted research in 2012/13 looking at the average student revenue from HE TNE students. The estimates for HE TNE have been produced by multiplying the average revenue figures by TNE enrolments for 2020. 2020 figures are calculated by weighting 19/20 and 20/21 academic years.

Further education

Schools

English Language Training

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Transnational Education Activity - 2021

Higher Education

The number of HE TNE students enrolled at UK institutions overseas can be identified from HESA aggregate Offshore Records (AOR).

The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) conducted research in 2012/13 looking at the average student revenue from HE TNE students[1]. The estimates for HE TNE have been produced by multiplying the average revenue figures by TNE enrolments for 2021[2].

Further education

Schools

English Language Training

Early Years

This figure is based on the accounts from BusyBee’s which have been identified as the main provider of UK Early Year’s education overseas. Overseas revenue is extracted directly from the company accounts[3]. To estimate export revenue, the revenue generated from the UK is subtracted from overseas revenue, of which 10% is assumed to be repatriated back to the UK.

[1] BIS Research Paper on the value of TNE. (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/387910/bis-14-1202-the-value-of-transnational-education-to-the-uk.pdf).

[2] 2021 figures are calculated by weighting 20/21 and 21/22 academic years.

[3] EAGLE MIDCO LIMITED filing history - Find and update company information - GOV.UK (company-information.service.gov.uk)

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Annexes

Retrospective data changes

The HESA data used to calculate revenues generated from education related exports and transnational education activities is subject to change due to HESA's fixed data policy. As such, estimates of revenues generated for tuition fees, living expenditure and income from research grants and intellectual property (IP) may be different year on year. This is because, where applicable, the most up to date data for a particular calendar year is used . This will mean figures may change slightly from a publication to another. However, this will only reflect more up to date data.

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Experimental Statistics

These estimates are experimental statistics since they are still to be fully developed and rigorously tested to ensure they meet the required standard for national statistics. This is because the data used to compile these estimates come from multiple sources, some with varying quality or limited coverage. In other areas we have had to make assumption where there is very little empirical evidence to draw on. These are indicated in the explanation above.

DfE is committed to improving the quality of these statistics over time. To improve the quality and meet our commitment, we are reviewing our methodology internally. At the same time, we are working with other government departments and engaging with the sector to explore ways we can work together to improve the quality of the statistics. This will meet our action laid out in the International Education Strategy to provide a clearer picture of exports activity by improving the accuracy and coverage of our published data (action 5).

As improvements are best made by publishing the data and opening up the discussion with data users, we would welcome feedback on the usefulness of the statistics and on the methodology we have used to produce them. We would also welcome ideas for appropriate data sources which could be used to assess the value of exports in these areas and suggestions on additional areas, outside of those already identified, which might contribute to the overall value of education-related exports.

Aspects which we would like to consider further during the experimental statistics phase include:

coverage – bringing in sectors currently excluded due to data quality concerns or lack of data
accuracy – refining the assumptions used to improve our overall estimates
explanation – better communication of the limitations of the data sources used
consistency – with other statistics on exports and imports; and
presentation – publishing the data in the right format to meet user needs

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Data Lag

Data lag

There is currently a two-year lag in the publication due to the number of inputs required to undertake the modelling. This reflects the varying release of the data inputs which means modelling is not uniform across each calendar year. However, there are aims to reduce this two-year lag to a one-year lag. This was the aim for this iteration of the publication but given a delay in the release of HESA data for the 2022/23 academic year, this has been postponed for a future iteration. Updates regarding when this will be plausible will be communicated through the publication page.

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Help and support

Contact us

If you have a specific enquiry about UK revenue from education related exports and transnational education activity statistics and data:

Higher Education Analysis

Email: he.statistics@education.gov.uk
Contact name: Matt Poullin
Telephone: 07880107283

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If you have a media enquiry:

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