Methodology

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Reporting in Higher Education Providers

Published

Data Collection

From 20 October 2020 the Office for Students (OfS) has collected data on coronavirus (COVID-19) from Higher Education Providers (HEPs) on behalf of the Department for Education through their COVID-19 reporting tool.

All English HEPs registered on the Office for Students Register as at 20 October 2020 were asked to make a return, with the exception of further education colleges. HEPs registering with the OfS after 20 October were not invited to submit during the period covered by this report.  Of the 237 HEPs in scope, 212 have made at least one submission. This includes all of the larger traditional universities as well as newer, specialist or private HEPs. The HEPs who have not made a submission are small. 

HEPs are asked to provide information on:

  • Numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases known to them.
  • Staff and student headcounts.
  • Estimates for numbers of students known to be self-isolating at the time of each submission.
  • Further contextualising information including the current DfE higher education tier of restriction. These items are defined in the terminology section in the annex.

The data return is not compulsory and the number of HEPs returning each week varies. This was a particular issue at the start of the Spring term as term start dates differ across HEPs. In addition, the first submission by a HEP in the Spring term includes any confirmed cases covering the winter break period (where known to the HEP). This first submission for the term therefore inflates the weekly figures. 113 HEPs made their first Spring term return in the week to 6 January, 64 made their first Spring term return in the week to 13 January, and 6 HEPs made their first Spring term return in the week to 20 January. This issue did not arise in the Autumn term because HEPs submitted a separate ‘baseline’ return for their first return (see ‘Baseline data’).

HEPs individually collate known confirmed cases for staff and students and report these to DfE using the Office for Students COVID-19 reporting tool. It is possible for staff and students to report more than 1 positive test result and it is not clear if HEPs carry out any de-duplication when they report the data. No further de-duplication can be carried out once the HEP has returned their data.

HEPs are asked to report all confirmed cases known to them. Where HEPs have operated their own testing programmes and recorded positive results, these cases will be included in these statistics. Where individuals do not report the results of tests to their HEP (for example, those taken at community centres or at home) any positive cases identified will not be included.

Baseline Data

HEPs were asked to provide baseline information in their first return. This covered headcounts for staff (academic and non-academic), students and total confirmed COVID-19 cases known to each HEP between 1 August 2020 and the date of their first submission. 

Ongoing data submissions

Following their initial submission, HEPs were asked to submit daily, Monday to Friday, returning information relating to the previous day, with Monday’s return covering the previous Friday, Saturday and Sunday. From 1 February HEPs have been asked to submit information twice weekly. In these returns HEPs submit on Monday (covering the previous Thursday to Sunday) and Thursday (covering the previous Monday to Wednesday). If a HEP fails to submit on one or more scheduled days, their next return should include the total of all known confirmed cases since their last return.

Validation

The OfS COVID-19 reporting tool includes some automated validation checks, some of which prevent submission while others advise the respondent to check their submission.

Additional data checks are carried out after submission to identify potentially erroneous returns, which are then queried with respondents.

Response Rates

Weekly Response Rate

This is calculated as the proportion of HEPs who have submitted at least one return through the OfS COVID-19 reporting tool during the week in question.

Non-Response and Contextualisation

Due to the diverse nature of higher education HEPs, which are highly variable in terms of student numbers and teaching facilities, we do not currently adjust for non-response. The statistics are representative only of the HEPs that have made a return for any given time period. We therefore contextualise each statistic with the number or proportion of HEPs returning data.

Reporting Weeks

For the purpose of this publication we define a ‘reporting week’ as the period from Thursday to the following Wednesday. The first reporting week is 29 October to 4 November 2020. We do not present weekly totals for data collected between 20 October and 28 October due to data quality issues in the first few days of the collection. These were resolved with an update to the OfS COVID-19 reporting tool that was made available to HEPs from 27 October. Confirmed cases reported between 20 and 28 October are included in the grand total. 

Data Corrections

HEPs can make retrospective corrections to their data when they submit data returns. The numbers reported in this publication relate to data submitted by 8 April 2021. HEPs may have made revisions to their data since then and may make revisions in future returns.

Confirmed Cases

Total Confirmed Cases Reported

This represents the total number of confirmed cases known to all HEPs and reported between 1 August 2020 and 8 April 2021. It is the sum of the confirmed cases reported in the baseline and the confirmed cases reported in each daily return up to and including those relating to 7 April 2021. 

Total cases for the Autumn term cover the period to 21 December 2020 and total cases for the Spring term cover the period 22 December to 7 April. In their first return, HEPs provide baseline information. This baseline includes total confirmed cases between the period from 1 August 2020 to the date of their first submission. We include all baseline cases in our estimate for the Autumn term total even if the date of first submission falls within the Spring term. Almost all providers made their first return in the Autumn term, but 7 new providers joined the collection in the Spring term. This means that the Autumn term total is slightly inflated (and the Spring term total correspondingly deflated) by any baseline cases at these providers that actually relate to the period between 21 December and the date of their first submission.

There was a pause in collection from 17 December to 4 January (although some providers continued to submit). Providers' first submission in January included any known cases detected during the winter break December, so the Spring term total may be inflated by any cases occurring between 17 December and 21 December (and the Autumn term total correspondingly deflated).

For these reasons the Autumn and Spring term totals should be considered as estimates only.

Weekly Confirmed Cases

This represents the total number of known confirmed cases reported by all HEPs during the reporting week. 

We make no adjustment to account for HEPs failing to submit a daily return. This has the following implication.

Effect of Missing Data Returns (example)

HEP AHEP B
Reporting Week 1Thur2020
Fri-Sun6060
Mon2020
Tue2020
Wed20
Wk 1 Total140120
Reporting Week 2Thur2040
Fri-Sun6060
Mon2020
Tue2020
Wed2020
Wk 2 Total140160

In this example, HEPs A and B each record 20 confirmed cases per day. HEP A makes all required data returns and records 140 cases for reporting week 1 and reporting week 2. HEP B did not make a return for the Wednesday of reporting week 1, but included Wednesday’s cases in the return for Thursday. This has the effect of depressing HEP B’s total for reporting week 1 and inflating it for reporting week 2.

Estimated COVID-19 Case Rates per 100,000

We estimate weekly case rates for both staff and students. Only those HEPs which have returned both:

  • valid case numbers within the 7-day period, and
  • a valid student or staff headcount at any point

are included in the rate estimate. Where HEPs have submitted multiple headcounts, we take the most recent value submitted before the end of the 7-day period.

The estimated staff rate is the total number of confirmed staff cases at the HEPs in scope divided by the total staff headcount at those HEPs and multiplied by 100,000. 

The estimated student rate is the total number of confirmed student cases at the HEPs in scope divided by the total student headcount at those HEPs and multiplied by 100,000. 

These rates underestimate the true rate, because they assume that all students report every positive test result to their HEP. This may not be true in all cases, and in particular we expect that students not in attendance at their HEP are unlikely to report cases. For this reason, we provide rate estimates for term 1 (when students were more likely to be attending their HEP) but not for term 2 (when HEPs limited student return to in person learning in line with DfE guidance).

Estimated rates for both staff and students are rounded to 1 decimal place.

Estimates for Number of Students Self-isolating

In the Autumn term, HEPs were only asked to report an estimate of the number of students self-isolating if they self-identified as having had more than 25 new confirmed cases in the previous 7 days (although some HEPs returned an estimate voluntarily). In the Spring term, all HEPs were asked to report this estimate.

For HEPs who have reported more than one estimate in the reporting week, we take the most recent reported estimate for each and sum to produce a sector summary. We present the number of HEPs making an estimate in each reporting week to contextualise the estimates.

The data quality of this item is limited because HEPs have advised us that they have incomplete knowledge of numbers self-isolating, and sometimes report ranges of possible values. In these cases, we report the upper bound of the range as overall figures are presumed to be an underestimate.

Due to these data quality issues, published figures are rounded to the nearest hundred, providing an indication of overall numbers and relative change through time but are not considered to be robust below this level.

Higher Education Tiers of Restriction

Higher Education HEPs in England are subject to education tiers of restriction relating to teaching provision, ranging from Tier 1 (default position with blended learning including in person) to Tier 4 (the majority of provision should be online). For a full explanation of these tiers please see the ‘Higher education: reopening buildings and campuses’ guidance

For HEPs that have reported a tier of restriction at any time during the reporting week, we take the most recent reported tier and aggregate to produce a sector summary. HEPs who did not submit a tier of restriction during the reporting week are excluded from the counts. Where a HEP has multiple locations with differing tier levels, the maximum reported tier is used.

We do not report HE tiers of restriction for the Spring term because the national lockdown from 6 January and updated DfE guidance for HEPs supersedes the tiered restrictions in place during the Autumn term.

Estimate of number of students eligible to return to in person teaching

During the Spring term, students were in scope to return to in person teaching in two tranches.

Based on analysis of the 2019/20 HESA student record and excluding distance learners and students studying wholly abroad, DfE estimate that in England out of 1,895,350 students:

  • approximately 19% of students were enrolled on courses in the subjects in scope for face to face learning from January (as set out in the DfE guidance).
  • approximately 49% of students were enrolled on ‘practical’ courses in scope for face to face learning from 8 March.

For the purpose of estimation, Higher Education Classification of Subjects (HECoS) codes were used to identify subjects in scope for in person teaching.  The DfE guidance on student returns in the Spring term identified a set of subjects related to key categories (medicine and dentistry, subjects allied to medicine/health, veterinary science, education (initial teacher training), and social work) for which providers could consider a return to in person teaching from the start of term. DfE's updated guidance on the further return of students from 8 March did not give a list of specific practical or practice-based courses to which students could return, given providers are best-placed to determine which of their courses require in-person teaching and which could reasonably continue online.

The HECoS codes used for this analysis are listed in Annex B.

Annexes

Annex A: Terminology

HEP – Higher Education Provider. 

Case – ‘Cases’ reported in this publication are confirmed cases known to HEPs and reported through the Office for Students COVID-19 reporting tool for both staff and students. To be ‘confirmed’, a case should have been identified following a positive COVID-19 test result (polymerase chain reaction test (PCR)  only up to 24th January, and PCR or lateral flow test from 25th January).

Staff headcount - defined as all academic and non-academic staff according to the definition given by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), excluding ‘atypical’ staff.

Student headcount - defined as all students registered with the HEP that are currently in the UK and would, if not for the current pandemic, be attending in person.

PCR test - polymerase chain reaction test

LFD – Lateral Flow Device

Annex B: HECoS codes for Estimates of Students in Scope to Return

Due to COVID-19, in line with DfE guidance, not all students were in scope to return to in person teaching in the Spring term.

In January students on courses which had to be delivered in person and which supported the pipeline of future critical key workers (eg nursing, medicine, teacher training) were eligible. More students were in scope to return from 8 March and these included students studying all other subjects with a practical or practice based element (eg creative arts, science).

Higher Education Classification of Subjects (HECoS) codes were used for internal DfE estimates of the approximate proportion of students that would be eligible for return to in person teaching in each of the tranches using the 2019/20 HESA student record. The codes associated with each tranche are listed below.

HECoS codes for January return (Tranche 1)HECoS codes for March return (Tranche 2)
100270101329
100267101291
100271101332
100276101317
101334100233
101336100235
100748100739
101339100236
101338100237
101337101340
101331100239
101309101375
101327100495
100261100254
101324100260
101325100265
100131101382
100266100912
100268100272
100275100274
100290100345
100279100346
100281100848
100285101318
100295101457
100293100347
100288100864
100280101459
100283100348
100287100849
100286100351
100746100850
100282101458
100284100906
101333100909
100747100822
100289100881
100291100911
100292100907
100294100353
100250100872
100277100826
100251100873
100246100874
101289100910
100273101376
100749101460
100750100355
100255100937
100744100880
100247100829
101511100834
100036100882
100037100883
101335100356
100248101378
101290100901
100252100898
100234100902
100241101377
100242100344
101241100948
100243100949
100253101380
100129100354
100132100932
101330101373
101320100343
100249100865
100257100858
100264100847
100540101319
100258100433
100038101379
100262100095
100259100096
100899100098
100900100475
100352101384
100350101461
101347100908
100531100938
101220100939
100532100942
100941100427
100523100580
101243101060
101210101068
100126100416
100127101071
100128101223
101307101391
100501101061
100503100577
100456101076
100476101390
100473100430
100486100419
100459101077
100508101075
100507100425
100510101300
100509101074
100511101396
101246100579
100512100426
101087100431
101085100414
101277100415
101103
101102
100413
101038
100417
101042
101044
101045
101041
101043
101046
100420
101054
100422
101389
100423
101050
101053
100424
100384
101222
101219
100386
100388
100392
100390
100391
100160
100182
100184
100429
100192
100190
100201
100109
100211
100110
100193
100202
100170
100205
100206
100152
100209
100213
101398
101397
100428
100114
100115
100564
100229
100117
100116
100207
100568
101216
100005
100138
100130
100572
100120
100148
100548
100180
100549
101048
100551
100156
100565
100157
100153
100219
100154
101399
100539
100162
100166
101355
100546
100163
100164
100581
101354
101353
100165
100553
100168
100177
101234
100169
100118
100188
100159
100141
100135
100143
100175
100176
100172
100178
100144
100183
100204
100185
101013
100573
100550
100212
100155
100566
101217
100545
100203
100033
100210
100145
100214
100544
100194
100134
100136
100137
100139
100222
100186
100093
100560
100230
101356
100225
100409
101352
101070
100408
101064
101394
101079
101058
101065
100410
101091
101067
101407
100671
100665
100469
101408
100478
100668
100669
100666
101078
100381
101072
100986
100369
101056
101104
101351
100379
100394
101106
100380
101093
101084
101083
101082
101086
100395
100396
101089
101073
100418
100382
100421
100398
101105
101081
100583
100121
100122
100147
100216
100584
100585
100149
100150
100151
100586
100825
100217
100590
100124
100588
100196
100197
100593
100198
100199
100594
100659
100655
100662
100466
100654
100455
100457
100653
101361
101362
100587
100059
100589
100595
100592
100003
100048
100052
100054
100055
100633
100060
100061
100062
100636
101316
100050
100051
100630
100632
100375
100071
101450
100854
100650
100867
100674
100842
101447
100661
100639
100843
100870
100656
100070
100643
100695
100642
100223
100221
101449
100035
100637
100667
101448
100841
101451
100657
100844
100862
100067
100707
100710
100697
100069
100708
100703
100704
100702
100700
100698
100705
100885
101452
100711
101454
100886
100068
101453
100712
100057
101214
100716
100890
100888
100441
100887
100063
100924
100923
100717
101505
100726
100895
100724
100706
101374
100721
100725
101455
100728
100513

 

 

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If you have a specific enquiry about Coronavirus (COVID-19) Reporting in Higher Education Providers statistics and data:

Higher Education COVID Analysis Team

Email: HE.statistics@education.gov.uk
Contact name: Mark Walsh
Telephone: 07384 872 520

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