Financial year 2023-24

Student loan forecasts for England

Data guidance

Published

Description

This document describes the data included in the ‘Student loan forecasts for England’ Official Statistics release’s underlying data files.

The methodology document should be referenced alongside this data. It provides information on the data sources, their coverage and quality as well as explaining the methodology used in producing the data.

Coverage

This release provides the latest information on forecasts for higher education and further education student loans in England. These include forecasts of student entrants, student loan outlay and student loan repayments. Only income-contingent student loans issued to students through Student Finance England are included. The forecasts are based on models developed by the Department for Education (DfE); details of quality and methodology are provided in the methodology document accompanying this publication. 

This is the latest in an annual series of statistics publications on student loan forecasts. It covers forecasts produced in April 2024, primarily covering the period 2023-24 to 2028-29.

File formats and conventions

The following symbol is used in the underlying data files as follows: 

     z      data not applicable

     x     data not available

     low     figures which round to 0, but are not 0

Data files

All data files associated with this releases are listed below with guidance on their content. To download any of these files, please visit our data catalogue.

AY headlines

Filename
key_statistics_ay.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023/24 to 2028/29
Content
Data for key statistic headlines in academic years
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
average_total_outlay_per_borrower_per_start_yearFull-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2023/24 are expected to borrow on average
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
median_repayment_termHalf of undergraduate loan borrowers starting in academic year 2023/24 are expected to repay their loan in full within
number_of_student_entrantsThe number of total undergraduate entrants expected to take out loans in 2028/29 is
plan_typePlan type - Filter by plan type
proportion_expected_to_fully_repayOf full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2023/24,
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
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FY headlines

Filename
key_statistics_fy.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023-24 to 2028-29
Content
Data for key statistic headlines in financial years
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_£mGovernment is expected to issue
plan_typePlan type - Filter by plan type
rab_chargeThe government is forecast to subsidise
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
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Table 1: Historical student loan outlay and forecast student loan outlay, by loan product

Filename
long_1.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2012-13 to 2028-29
Content
Historical student loan outlay and forecast student loan outlay, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
actual_forecastActual or Forecast - Filter by actuals or forecast
loan_outlay_£mLoan outlay
loan_productLoan product - Filter by loan product
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
  3. Financial year 2023-24 outlay figures are actuals as published by the Student Loans Company (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/student-loans-in-england-2023-to-2024 (opens in a new tab)) with the exception of Advanced Learner Loans Plan 2 and Plan 5 outlay.
  4. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  5. Outlay figures have been rounded to the nearest £5 million.
  6. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  7. Where you see ‘low’ this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
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Table 2a: Forecast number of students receiving loans, by loan product

Filename
long_2a.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2019/20 to 2028/29
Content
Forecast number of students receiving loans, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
actual_forecastActual or Forecast - Filter by actuals or forecast
loan_productLoan product - Filter by loan product
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
number_of_students_thousandsNumber of students (thousands)
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
  3. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  4. Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in all higher education undergraduate loan product categories.
  5. The 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data, apart from Plan 3 figures. Plan 3 actuals are taken from SLC publication ‘Student support for higher education in England 2023’. Student support for higher education in England 2023 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (opens in a new tab)
  6. Student borrower numbers have been rounded to the nearest 1,000 borrowers.
  7. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  8. Where you see ‘low’ this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
  9. Where you see the symbol 'x' this refers to not available.
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Table 2b: Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans, by loan product

Filename
long_2b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2019/20 to 2028/29
Content
Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
actual_forecastActual or Forecast - Filter by actuals or forecast
loan_productLoan product - Filter by loan product
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
number_of_student_entrants_thousandsNumber of student entrants (thousands)
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All entrant borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  3. Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in all higher education undergraduate loan product categories.
  4. The 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data, apart from Plan 3 figures. Plan 3 actuals are taken from SLC publication ‘Student support for higher education in England 2023’. Student support for higher education in England 2023 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (opens in a new tab)
  5. Student borrower numbers have been rounded to the nearest 1,000 borrowers.
  6. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  7. Where you see the symbol 'x' this refers to not available.
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Table 3 Forecast student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest accrued by loan borrowers and cancelled loans, by loan product

Filename
long_3.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023-24 to 2028-29
Content
Forecast student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest accrued by loan borrowers and cancelled loans, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
cancelled_loans_£mCancelled loans
capitalised_interest_£mCapitalised interest
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_£mLoan outlay
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
repayments_£mRepayments
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
  3. Financial year 2023-24 outlay figures are actuals as published by the Student Loans Company (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/student-loans-in-england-2023-to-2024 (opens in a new tab)) with the exception of Advanced Learner Loans Plan 2 and Plan 5 outlay.
  4. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  5. Repayment forecasts assume that PAYE obligatory repayments are made in the same year in which the borrower had the income on which they are based. In reality some repayments made through PAYE will be received the following year, particularly repayments based on earnings in the final month of the year.
  6. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 (opens in a new tab) Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137 (opens in a new tab). 
  7. No overpayments or refunds are modelled for borrowers that fully repay their loans; it is assumed that all borrowers finish making repayments once their loan balance reaches £0. In reality some borrowers overpay their loans, particularly if making repayments via HMRC, and are entitled to receive refunds.
  8. Outlay, repayments, capitalised interest and cancelled loans figures have been rounded to the nearest £5 million.
  9. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  10. Where you see ‘low’ this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
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Table 4a: Forecast stock charge, by loan product

Filename
long_4a.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023-24
Content
Forecast stock charge, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
stock_chargeStock charge
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 (opens in a new tab) Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137 (opens in a new tab). 
  4. The stock charge is the proportion of the outstanding loan balance at the start of the year that we expect not to be repaid when future repayments are valued in present terms.
  5. Forecasts for full-time, part-time undergraduate and Advanced Learner Loans Plan 5 borrowers starting in academic year 2023-24, will be for borrowers in their first year of study only. Forecasts for other plan types or in other years will contain a mix of borrowers’ years of study.
  6. Stock charges cannot be negative as they measure the level of government subsidy to the student loan system. If the future repayments are forecast to have a higher net present value than the initial loan outlay or the face value of the outstanding loans using the HM Treasury (HMT) discount rate then the stock charge is required to use a discount rate equal to the rate intrinsic to the loan product, which is the rate that sets the stock charge to 0%. Please see the Methodology document accompanying this publication for further information. Without this rule, the figure produced by the student loan repayment model using the HMT discount rate is 18.7% for the Master's stock charge in 2023-24.
  7. Stock charge have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  8. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
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Table 4b: Forecast Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge, by loan product

Filename
long_4b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023-24 to 2028-29
Content
Forecast Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
rab_chargeRAB charge
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 (opens in a new tab) Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137 (opens in a new tab). 
  4. Forecasts for full-time, part-time undergraduate and Advanced Learner Loans Plan 5 borrowers starting in academic year 2023-24, will be for borrowers in their first year of study only. Forecasts for other plan types or in other years will contain a mix of borrowers’ years of study.
  5. The RAB charge is the proportion of loan outlay made during the year that we expect not to be repaid when future repayments are valued in present terms.
  6. RAB charges cannot be negative as they measure the level of government subsidy to the student loan system. If the future repayments are forecast to have a higher net present value than the initial loan outlay or the face value of the outstanding loans using the HM Treasury (HMT) discount rate then the RAB charge is required to use a discount rate equal to the rate intrinsic to the loan product, which is the rate that sets the RAB charge to 0%. Please see the Methodology document accompanying this publication for further information. Without this rule, the figure produced by the student loan repayment model using the HMT discount rate is –23.7% for the masters RAB charge in 2023-24.
  7. RAB charge is dependent on the proportion of Doctoral loan borrowers also taking out Master's loans. Doctoral RAB charges are not forecast for individual financial years, as the number of doctoral students with a prior Master's loan balance cannot be reliably estimated. However, a steady state Doctoral RAB charge is provided which takes into account the expectation that many borrowers will already have a Master's loan that they are repaying.
  8. RAB charge have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  9. There are too few borrowers receiving Plan 1 loans to reliably produce a forecast for the RAB charge.
  10. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
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Table 4c: Forecast transfer proportion, by loan product

Filename
long_4c.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023-24 to 2028-29
Content
Forecast transfer proportion, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
transfer_proportionTransfer proportion
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 (opens in a new tab) Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137 (opens in a new tab). 
  4. Forecasts for full-time, part-time undergraduate and Advanced Learner Loans Plan 5 borrowers starting in academic year 2023-24, will be for borrowers in their first year of study only. Forecasts for other plan types or in other years will contain a mix of borrowers’ years of study.
  5. The transfer proportion is the portion of student loan outlay earmarked as government expenditure at loan inception in recognition that this portion of the outlay is unlikely to be repaid. See details of the partitioned loan approach for further information: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/methodologies/studentloansinthepublicsectorfinancesamethodologicalguide#partitioned-loan-transfer-approach.
  6. Transfer proportions have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  7. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
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Table 5: Forecast percentage of borrowers expected to fully repay student loans, by loan product​

Filename
long_5.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022/23 to 2024/25
Content
Forecast percentage of borrowers expected to fully repay student loans, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
proportion_expected_to_fully_repayProportion expected to fully repay loan
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  3. Data for the cohort starting in academic year 2022/23 is from last year’s forecast: Student loan forecasts for England, Financial year 2022-23 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk).
  4. Includes all borrowers that repay their loan balance in full during their repayment term without any part of it being cancelled.
  5. Proportions have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  6. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
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Table 6a: Forecast number of student loan borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by loan product

Filename
long_6a.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023-24 to 2028-29
Content
Forecast number of student loan borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
borrowers_repaymentNumber of borrowers liable to make repayments
borrowers_repayment_above_thresholdNumber of borrowers liable to make repayments and earning above repayment threshold
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 (opens in a new tab) Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137 (opens in a new tab). 
  4. Totals provided for higher education undergraduate counts a loan borrower once even if they have more than one undergraduate loan product. For individuals plan type totals, they are counted once for each plan type they hold. Totals for Plan 3 and Advanced Learner Loans double count borrowers and so they have been omitted.
  5. Borrowers on part-time courses longer than 4 years may become liable to make repayments before the end of their course. However, they are assumed to earn below the repayment threshold until the April after their course end date, even if they become liable to make repayments before this point.
  6. Earnings are forecast as equivalent annual earnings. As such figures include borrowers who would be earning above the repayment threshold for only part of the year and make a repayment as a result.
  7. Only earnings that would be recorded by HMRC are included. This excludes any earnings overseas or earnings that are not declared to HMRC.
  8. Earnings on entry into the labour market are expected to be lower than those mid-career, this will impact the number of borrowers earning above the repayment threshold for plans where the earliest borrowers have only recently become liable to make repayments.
  9. The first Plan 2 borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2016-17. The earliest master's loan borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2019-20 and doctoral loan borrowers in 2020-21. For modelling purposes, it is assumed the first Plan 5 borrowers will become liable to repay the first April after finishing or withdrawing from their course.
  10. Borrower numbers have been rounded to the nearest 5,000 borrowers.
  11. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
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Table 6b: Forecast of repayment thresholds, by plan type​

Filename
long_6b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023-24 to 2028-29
Content
Forecast of repayment thresholds, by plan type
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
plan_typeStudent loan plan type - Filter by student loan plan type
threshold_domesticRepayment threshold
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  3. Repayment thresholds are presented as multiples of £5 in line with the policy for calculating them.
  4. Plan 1 threshold increases each April based on RPI. The Plan 2 threshold remains at £27,295 until April 2025, increasing with RPI at that point and thereafter. The Plan 5 threshold is set at £25,000 until April 2027, increasing with RPI at that point and thereafter. The Plan 3 threshold has been set up to 2023-24 and will be reviewed for 2024-25. To enable future repayments to be forecast, it is assumed that the repayment threshold will increase in line with average earnings growth.
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Table 7a: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs​

Filename
long_7a-post-fix-3.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023-24
Content
Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
baseline_chargeCurrent forecast
dr_-0.2pp_average_earnings_-1pp_to_2030Discount rate 0.2pp lower and average earnings growth 1pp lower each year upto 2030
dr_-0.2pp_average_earnings_+1pp_to_2030Discount rate 0.2pp lower and average earnings growth 1pp higher each year upto 2030
dr_+0.2pp_average_earnings_-1pp_to_2030Discount rate 0.2pp higher and average earnings growth 1pp lower each year upto 2030
dr_+0.2pp_average_earnings_+1pp_to_2030Discount rate 0.2pp higher and average earnings growth 1pp higher each year upto 2030
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
rpi_and_rpix_-1ppRPI 1pp lower each year
rpi_and_rpix_-2ppRPI 2pp lower each year
rpi_and_rpix_+1ppRPI 1pp higher each year
rpi_and_rpix_+2ppRPI 2pp higher each year
stock_rabStock or RAB charge - Filter by stock charge or RAB charge
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 (opens in a new tab) Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137 (opens in a new tab). 
  4. Changes to the HMT discount rate, and to earnings growth have applied from 2023-24, to 2029-30. Rates return to the baseline assumptions from 2030-31 onwards.
  5. RPI changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2024-25 onwards.
  6. This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB and stock charges are to various economic parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
  7. Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
  8. RAB and stock charge have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
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Table 7b: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges to key policy inputs​

Filename
long_7b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023-24
Content
Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key policy inputs
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
baseline_chargeCurrent forecast
dr_-0.2pp_average_earnings_-1pp_to_2030Discount rate 0.2pp lower and average earnings growth 1pp lower each year upto 2030
dr_-0.2pp_average_earnings_+1pp_to_2030Discount rate 0.2pp lower and average earnings growth 1pp higher each year upto 2030
dr_+0.2pp_average_earnings_-1pp_to_2030Discount rate 0.2pp higher and average earnings growth 1pp lower each year upto 2030
dr_+0.2pp_average_earnings_+1pp_to_2030Discount rate 0.2pp higher and average earnings growth 1pp higher each year upto 2030
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
rpi_and_rpix_-1ppRPI 1pp lower each year
rpi_and_rpix_-2ppRPI 2pp lower each year
rpi_and_rpix_+1ppRPI 1pp higher each year
rpi_and_rpix_+2ppRPI 2pp higher each year
stock_rabStock or RAB charge - Filter by stock charge or RAB charge
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 (opens in a new tab) Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137 (opens in a new tab). 
  4. This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB and stock charges are to various economic parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
  5. Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
  6. All changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2023-24.
  7. In the repayment threshold scenarios the threshold is assumed to be £1,000 lower/higher in 2023-24 (i.e. £26,295 or £28,295 for Plan 2), before growing in line with RPI for Plans 2 and 5, and average earnings growth for Plan 3, in subsequent years in line with the current policy.
  8. RAB and stock charge have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
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Table 8 Projected long term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product

Filename
long_8.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023-24 to 2072-73
Content
Projected long term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
cancelled_loans_£bnCancelled loans (£ billion)
capitalised_interest_£bnCapitalised interest (£ billion)
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_£bnLoan outlay (£ billion)
outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_£bnOutstanding loan balance at the start of financial year (£ billion)
outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_202324_prices_£bnOutstanding loan balance at the start of financial year (2023-24 prices £ billion)
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
repayments_£bnRepayments (£ billion)
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: All borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
  3. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  4. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 (opens in a new tab) Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137 (opens in a new tab). 
  5. Loan cancellations as a result of a borrower reaching the end of their repayment term are recorded as being at the start of the first financial year in which they were no longer liable to make repayments.
  6. Forecasts up to 2028-29 are consistent with those elsewhere in this publication. The same methodology is used to extend the undergraduate loan forecasts and a simplified calculation is used to extend the forecasts for Postgraduate Loans and Advanced Learner Loans. Please see the Methodology document accompanying this publication for further information.
  7. Values in 2023-24 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
  8. Outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans and outstanding balance figures have been rounded to the nearest £0.1 billion.
  9. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  10. Where you see ‘low’ this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
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Table 9: Average loan balance at Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD), average loan balance at SRDD in FY2023-24 prices, average lifetime repayments in FY2023-24 prices, median years liable to repay, and proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms of undergraduate borrowers, by lifetime decile​

Filename
long_9.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2023/24
Content
Average loan balance at Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD), average loan balance at SRDD in FY2023-24 prices, average lifetime repayments in FY2023-24 prices, median years liable to repay, and proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms of undergraduate borrowers, by lifetime decile
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
average_lifetime_repayments_in_fy2324_pricesAverage lifetime repayments (in FY2023-24 prices)
average_loan_balance_at_srdd_in_fy2324_pricesAverage loan balance at SRDD (in FY2023-24 prices)
average_loan_balance_at_srdd_nominalAverage loan balance at SRDD (nominal)
lifetime_earnings_decileLifetime Earnings Decile - Filter by lifetime earnings decile
median_years_liable_to_repayMedian years liable to repay
proportion_of_outlay_repaid_real_termsProportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: Borrowers who receive undergraduate loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in Table 1.1 in the Methodology: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
  3. Mean averages are taken per loan (rather than per borrower). One borrower can take multiple loans across multiple periods of study, for example by taking a PGCE after an undergraduate degree.
  4. Data covers all full-time and part-time undergraduate borrowers starting in academic year 2023/24 under Plan 5 only. A small number of undergraduate borrowers starting in academic year 2023/24 will have differed entry and may be under Plan 2.
  5. Median years liable to repay, includes borrowers in active repayment of loan debt including and interest charged on the balance of the loan.
  6. These deciles do not align with earnings deciles for the population in general. They refer to the projected lifetime earnings for graduates only.
  7. For higher earnings deciles the Plan 5 figures for 'proportion of outlay repaid in real terms' slightly exceed 100% even though interest is set in line with RPI. This is because the interest is set to RPI on a 1 year lag whereas discounting is based on unlagged RPI.
  8. Loan borrowers normally become liable to begin repaying a loan at the start of the tax year (6 April) after graduating or otherwise leaving their course, this point is known as their Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD). After their SRDD, borrowers are required to make repayments if their income is above the repayment threshold. Borrowers studying part time, reach SRDD on the earlier of, the start of the tax year following them ceasing to be eligible for student support, or the start of the tax year following the 4th anniversary of the start of their course.
  9. Years liable to repay measures the time between SRDD and either loan write-off or the loan being fully repaid.
  10. Lifetime earnings are considered as all earnings between SRDD and 50 years after SRDD, normalised using average earnings growth indices.
  11. Values in 2023-24 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
  12. Monetary average figures have been rounded to the nearest £100.
  13. Proportions have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
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Table 10: Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income

Filename
long_10.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22
Content
Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
hri_bandHRI band (£ thousands) - Filter by HRI band
mean_outlay_per_student_£Mean outlay per student
number_of_studentsNumber of students
percentagePercentage
total_outlay_£000Total outlay (£ thousands)
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: Full-time undergraduate English-domiciled borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. Loan outlay includes tuition fee loan and maintenance loan.
  3. These academic year 2021/22 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data.
  4. Individuals who chose not to provide their household residual income may have an income over the maximum threshold.
  5. Maintenance loans are means tested and calculated based on a sliding scale of household residual income depending on students’ living location.
  6. The household residual income figure provided may not be from academic year 2021/22 as students do not typically have to submit a new figure in each year of their study.
  7. Part-time students have been excluded from the table due to having a large proportion of borrowers with non-declared income. Only a small proportion of part-time borrowers requested or received a maintenance loan in AY 2021/22, and borrowers do not need to supply household income information when requesting fee loan support only.
  8. These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
  9. Total outlay is in thousands of pounds and is rounded to the nearest 100 thousand pounds, mean outlay is rounded to the nearest 100 pounds, and number of students to the nearest thousand.
  10. Proportions may not appear to sum due to rounding.
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Table 11: Average loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product

Filename
long_11.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2019/20 to 2028/29
Content
Average loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
actual_forecastActual or Forecast - Filter by actuals or forecast
loan_productLoan product - Filter by loan product
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
mean_outlay_per_borrower_£Mean average loan outlay per borrower per academic year
median_outlay_per_borrower_£Median average loan outlay per borrower per academic year
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: Borrowers who receive undergraduate loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in all higher education undergraduate loan product categories.
  3. These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
  4. The 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data.
  5. Some students, including EU students with pre-settled status and some part-time students (Student finance for undergraduates: Eligibility - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (opens in a new tab)), are not eligible for maintenance loans
  6. Zero loan amounts are excluded from the calculations of average loan outlay.
  7. Average outlay figures have been rounded to the nearest £10.
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Table 12: Proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing

Filename
long_12.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022/23
Content
Proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type - Filter by plan type
proportion_borrowers_to_202829Proportion of borrowers
years_of_fundingNumber of years of funding - Filter by number of years of funding
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: Borrowers who receive undergraduate loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
  3. These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
  4. Years counted for years of funding do not need to be consecutive. Where a borrower funds subsequent courses with student loans, each course is counted as a separate period of funding.
  5. Proportions are calculated over all student cohorts between academic years 2022/23 and 2028/29.
  6. Proportions have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  7. Proportions may not appear to sum due to rounding.
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Table 13: Average total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student by course start year and number of years of funding

Filename
long_13.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022/23 to 2028/29
Content
Average total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student by course start year and number of years of funding
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
mean_total_outlay_per_borrower_per_start_yearMean average total loan amount per borrower per start year
median_total_outlay_per_borrower_per_start_yearMedian average total loan amount per borrower per start year
plan_typePlan type - Filter by plan type
years_of_fundingNumber of years of funding - Filter by number of years of funding
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: Borrowers who receive undergraduate loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
  3. These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
  4. Years counted for years of funding do not need to be consecutive. Where a borrower funds subsequent courses with student loans, each course is counted as a separate period of funding.
  5. Averages are calculated over all student cohorts between academic years 2022/23 and 2028/29, covering students’ entire periods of funding.
  6. Zero loan amounts are excluded from the calculations of average loan outlay.
  7. Average outlay figures have been rounded to the nearest £10.
  8. Students accrue interest on their loans whilst in study, with the interest rate during study dependant on plan type. The final loan balance when students enter repayment will therefore be higher than the total loan amount borrowed.
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Table 14: Average length of funding per higher education undergraduate student

Filename
long_14.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2028/29
Content
Average length of funding per higher education undergraduate student
Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
average_length_funding_since_202223Average length of funding per borrower
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: Borrowers who receive undergraduate loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products.
  2. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
  3. These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
  4. Years counted for years of funding do not need to be consecutive. Where a borrower funds subsequent courses with student loans, each course is counted as a separate period of funding.
  5. Averages are over all student cohorts between 2022/23 and 2028/29.
  6. Average length of funding is mean average value.
  7. Average funding lengths have been rounded to the nearest year.
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