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Financial year 2024-25
Student loan forecasts for England
Data guidance
Published
Description
This document describes the data included in the ‘Student loan forecasts for England’ Official Statistics release’s underlying data files.
The methodology document should be referenced alongside this data. It provides information on the data sources, their coverage and quality as well as explaining the methodology used in producing the data.
Coverage
This release provides forecasts for higher education and further education student loans in England. These include forecasts of student numbers, student loan outlay and student loan repayments. Only income-contingent student loans issued to students through Student Finance England are included. The forecasts are based on models developed by the Department for Education (DfE); details of quality and methodology are provided in the methodology document accompanying this publication.
This is the latest in an annual series of statistical publications on student loan forecasts. It covers forecasts produced in April 2025, primarily covering the period from the 2024-25 to 2029-30 financial years.
File formats and conventions
The following symbols are used in the underlying data files:
z data not applicable
x data not available
low figures which round to 0, but are not 0
Data files
All data files associated with this releases are listed below with guidance on their content. To download any of these files, please visit our data catalogue.
AY headlines
Filename
key_statistics_ay.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2024/25 to 2029/30
Content
Data for key statistics headlines in academic years.
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
average_total_outlay_per_borrower_per_start_year
Full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2024/25 are expected to borrow on average
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
median_repayment_term
Half of undergraduate loan borrowers starting in academic year 2024/25 are expected to repay their loan in full within
number_of_student_entrants
The number of total undergraduate entrants expected to take out loans in 2029/30 is
plan_type
Plan type - Filter by plan type
proportion_expected_to_fully_repay
Of full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2024/25,
Of full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2024/25, 56% are expected to repay their loan in full, unchanged from 56% for the 2023/24 cohort. See methodology for details of why these percentages have been revised compared to previous publications.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore, no Plan 1 outlay is forecast. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore, no Plan 1 outlay is forecast. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore, no Plan 1 outlay is forecast. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
Repayment forecasts assume that PAYE obligatory repayments are made in the same year in which the borrower had the income on which they are based. In reality, some repayments made through PAYE will be received the following year, particularly repayments based on earnings in the final month of the year.
No overpayments or refunds are modelled for borrowers that fully repay their loans; it is assumed that all borrowers finish making repayments once their loan balance reaches £0. In reality, some borrowers overpay their loans, particularly if making repayments via HMRC, and are entitled to receive refunds.
The first Plan 2 borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2016-17. The earliest master's loan borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2019-20 and doctoral loan borrowers in 2020-21. For modelling purposes, it is assumed the first Plan 5 borrowers will become liable to repay the first April after finishing or withdrawing from their course. This is a slight simplification – liability for Plan 5 repayments starts in April 2026, so some additional repayments will be forecast. The impact on the forecast for the overall loan system is minimal.
Outlay, repayments, capitalised interest and cancelled loans figures have been rounded to the nearest £5 million.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this means not applicable. For example, there are no ALL Plan 2 borrowers modelled after 2024/25.
Where you see ‘low’, this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
The stock charge is the proportion of the outstanding loan balance at the start of the year that we expect not to be repaid when future repayments are valued in present terms.
Forecasts for full-time, part-time undergraduate and Advanced Learner Loans Plan 5 borrowers starting in academic year 2024/25, will be for borrowers in their first year of study only. Forecasts for other plan types or in other years will contain a mix of borrowers’ years of study.
Stock charges cannot be negative as they measure the level of government subsidy to the student loan system. If the future repayments are forecast to have a higher net present value than the initial loan outlay or the face value of the outstanding loans using the HM Treasury (HMT) discount rate then the stock charge is required to use a discount rate equal to the rate intrinsic to the loan product, which is the rate that sets the stock charge to 0%. Please see the Methodology document accompanying this publication for further information. Without this rule, the figure produced by the student loan repayment model using the HMT discount rate is 14.7% for the Master's stock charge in 2024-25.
Stock charge have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this means not applicable. For example, there are no ALL Plan 2 borrowers modelled after 2024/25.
Forecasts for full-time, part-time undergraduate and Advanced Learner Loans Plan 5 borrowers starting in academic year 2024/25, will be for borrowers in their first year of study only. Forecasts for other plan types or in other years will contain a mix of borrowers’ years of study.
The RAB charge is the proportion of loan outlay made during the year that we expect not to be repaid when future repayments are valued in present terms.
RAB charges cannot be negative as they measure the level of government subsidy to the student loan system. If the future repayments are forecast to have a higher net present value than the initial loan outlay or the face value of the outstanding loans using the HM Treasury (HMT) discount rate then the RAB charge is required to use a discount rate equal to the rate intrinsic to the loan product, which is the rate that sets the RAB charge to 0%. Please see the Methodology document accompanying this publication for further information. Without this rule, the figure produced by the student loan repayment model using the HMT discount rate is –20.6% for the Master’s RAB charge in 2024-25.
RAB charge is dependent on the proportion of Doctoral loan borrowers also taking out Master's loans. Doctoral RAB charges are not forecast for individual financial years, as the number of doctoral students with a prior Master's loan balance cannot be reliably estimated. However, a steady state Doctoral RAB charge is provided which takes into account the expectation that many borrowers will already have a Master's loan that they are repaying.
RAB charge have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
There are too few borrowers receiving Plan 1 loans to reliably produce a forecast for the RAB charge.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this means not applicable. For example, there are no ALL Plan 2 borrowers modelled after 2024/25.
Forecasts for full-time, part-time undergraduate and Advanced Learner Loans Plan 5 borrowers starting in academic year 2024/25, will be for borrowers in their first year of study only. Forecasts for other plan types or in other years will contain a mix of borrowers’ years of study.
Totals provided for higher education undergraduate counts a loan borrower once even if they have more than one undergraduate loan product. For individuals plan type totals, they are counted once for each plan type they hold. Totals for Plan 3 and Advanced Learner Loans double count borrowers and so they have been omitted.
Borrowers on part-time courses longer than 4 years may become liable to make repayments before the end of their course. However, they are assumed to earn below the repayment threshold until the April after their course end date, even if they become liable to make repayments before this point.
Earnings are forecast as equivalent annual earnings. As such figures do not include borrowers who would be earning above the repayment threshold for only part of the year and make a repayment as a result.
Only earnings that would be recorded by HMRC are included. This excludes any earnings overseas or earnings that are not declared to HMRC.
Earnings on entry into the labour market are expected to be lower than those mid-career. This will impact the number of borrowers earning above the repayment threshold for plans where the earliest borrowers have only recently become liable to make repayments.
The first Plan 2 borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2016-17. The earliest master's loan borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2019-20 and doctoral loan borrowers in 2020-21. For modelling purposes, it is assumed the first Plan 5 borrowers will become liable to repay the first April after finishing or withdrawing from their course. This is a slight simplification – liability for Plan 5 repayments starts in April 2026, so some additional repayments will be forecast. The impact on the forecast for the overall loan system is minimal.
Borrower numbers have been rounded to the nearest 5,000 borrowers.
Repayment thresholds are presented as multiples of £5 in line with the policy for calculating them.
Plan 1 threshold increases each April based on RPI. The Plan 2 threshold remains at £27,295 until April 2025, increasing with RPI at that point and thereafter. The Plan 5 threshold is set at £25,000 until April 2027, increasing with RPI at that point and thereafter. The Plan 3 threshold has been set at £21,000 up to 2025-26 and will be reviewed for 2026-27. To enable future repayments to be forecast, it is assumed that the repayment threshold will increase in line with average earnings growth.
Changes to the HMT discount rate, and to earnings growth have applied from 2024-25, to 2029-30. Rates return to the baseline assumptions from 2030-31 onwards.
RPI changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2024-25 onwards.
This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB and stock charges are to various economic parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
RAB and stock charge have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB and stock charges are to various economic parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
All changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2024-25.
In the repayment threshold scenarios, the threshold is assumed to be £1,000 lower/higher in 2024-25 (i.e., £26,295.00 or £28,295.00 for Plan 2), before growing in line with RPI for Plans 2 and 5, and average earnings growth for Plan 3, in subsequent years in line with the current policy.
RAB and stock charge have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore, no Plan 1 outlay is forecast. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
The first Plan 2 borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2016-17. The earliest master's loan borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2019-20 and doctoral loan borrowers in 2020-21. For modelling purposes, it is assumed the first Plan 5 borrowers will become liable to repay the first April after finishing or withdrawing from their course. This is a slight simplification – liability for Plan 5 repayments starts in April 2026, so some additional repayments will be forecast. The impact on the forecast for the overall loan system is minimal.
Loan cancellations as a result of a borrower reaching the end of their repayment term are recorded as being at the start of the first financial year in which they are no longer liable to make repayments.
Forecasts up to 2029-30 are consistent with those elsewhere in this publication. The same methodology is used to extend the undergraduate loan forecasts, and a simplified calculation is used to extend the forecasts for Postgraduate Loans and Advanced Learner Loans. Due to the combination of forecasts used, the cashflows may not add up on every row. Please see the Methodology document accompanying this publication for further information.
Mean averages are taken per loan (rather than per borrower). One borrower can take multiple loans across multiple periods of study, for example, by taking a PGCE after an undergraduate degree.
Data covers all full-time and part-time undergraduate borrowers starting in academic year 2024/25 under Plan 5 only. A small number of undergraduate borrowers starting in academic year 2024/25 will have deferred entry and may be under Plan 2.
Median years liable to repay includes borrowers in active repayment of loan debt including and interest charged on the balance of the loan.
Deciles refer to the projected lifetime earnings for student loan borrowers only. They do not align with earnings deciles for the population in general.
For higher earnings deciles the Plan 5 figures for 'proportion of outlay repaid in real terms' slightly exceed 100% even though interest is set in line with RPI. This is because the interest is set to RPI on a 1 year lag whereas discounting is based on unlagged RPI.
Loan borrowers normally become liable to begin repaying a loan at the start of the tax year (6 April) after graduating or otherwise leaving their course, this point is known as their Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD). After their SRDD, borrowers are required to make repayments if their income is above the repayment threshold. Borrowers studying part-time, reach SRDD on the earlier of, the start of the tax year following them ceasing to be eligible for student support, or the start of the tax year following the 4th anniversary of the start of their course.
Years liable to repay measures the time between SRDD and either loan write-off or the loan being fully repaid.
Lifetime earnings are considered as all earnings between SRDD and 50 years after SRDD, normalised using average earnings growth indices.
Table 10: Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income
Filename
long_10.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022/23
Content
Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income.
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
hri_band
HRI band (£ thousands) - Filter by HRI band
mean_outlay_per_student_£
Mean outlay per student
number_of_students
Number of students
percentage
Percentage
total_outlay_£000
Total outlay (£ thousands)
Footnotes
Coverage: Full-time undergraduate English-domiciled borrowers who receive loans through Student Finance England. For further details on eligibility, please see the Student Finance England practitioner website: https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products (opens in a new tab).
Loan outlay includes tuition fee loans and maintenance loans.
These academic year 2022/23 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data.
Individuals who chose not to provide their household residual income may have an income over the maximum threshold.
Maintenance loans are means-tested and calculated based on a sliding scale of household residual income, depending on students’ living location.
The household residual income figure provided may not be from the 2022/23 academic year as students do not typically have to submit a new figure in each year of their study.
Part-time students have been excluded from the table due to having a large proportion of borrowers with non-declared income. Only a small proportion of part-time borrowers requested or received a maintenance loan in AY2022/23, and borrowers do not need to supply household income information when requesting fee loan support only.
These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner.
Total outlay is in thousands of pounds and is rounded to the nearest 100 thousand pounds, mean outlay is rounded to the nearest 100 pounds, and number of students to the nearest thousand.
Proportions may not appear to sum due to rounding.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore, no Plan 1 outlay is forecast. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner.
Years counted for years of funding do not need to be consecutive for the same period of study. Where a borrower funds different periods of study with student loans, each period of study is counted separately.
Proportions are calculated over all student cohorts between academic years 2023/24 and 2029/30.
Proportions have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
Proportions may not appear to sum due to rounding.
The model assumes that starting from the 2023/24 academic year, all loan-borrowing undergraduate entrants receive Plan 5 loans. Consequently, the figures for Plan 5 are identical to the ‘Total’ for all plans in this table.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore, no Plan 1 outlay is forecast. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner.
Years counted for years of funding do not need to be consecutive for the same period of study. Where a borrower funds different periods of study with student loans, each period of study is counted separately.
Averages are calculated over all student cohorts between academic years 2023/24 and 2029/30, covering students’ entire periods of funding.
Zero loan amounts are excluded from the calculations of average loan outlay.
Average outlay figures have been rounded to the nearest £10.
Students accrue interest on their loans whilst in study, with the interest rate during study dependent on plan type. The final loan balance when students enter repayment will therefore be higher than the total loan amount borrowed.
The model assumes that starting from the 2023/24 academic year, all loan-borrowing undergraduate entrants receive Plan 5 loans. Consequently, the figures for Plan 5 are identical to the ‘Total’ for all plans in this table.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after entering higher education; therefore, no Plan 1 outlay is forecast. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan across our forecast horizon, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner.
Years counted for years of funding do not need to be consecutive for the same period of study. Where a borrower funds different periods of study with student loans, each period of study is counted separately.
Averages are over all student cohorts between 2023/24 and 2029/30.
Average length of funding is mean average value.
Average funding lengths have been rounded to the nearest year.
The model assumes that starting from the 2023/24 academic year, all loan-borrowing undergraduate entrants receive Plan 5 loans. Consequently, the figures for Plan 5 are identical to the ‘Total’ for all plans in this table.