Progression to higher education or training
Rates and value-added scores of level 3 (e.g., A level) students that sustain a higher education or apprenticeship destination. Includes various breakdowns.
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Sustained a level 4 or higher destination
63.4%
1.2 percentage point decrease since last year
What is a sustained destination?
To be counted in a level 4 or higher destination, students have to be recorded as having sustained participation for a 6 month period in the two-year destination window.
The way we have derived sustained destinations this year has been updated, so figures for previous years have been revised. See the ‘Changes to the data’ section for more detail.
The latest data in this release covers students who left 16 to 19 study in 2022/23. These statistics show the percentage of level 3 pupils (e.g. those that studied A levels, tech levels and applied general qualifications) continuing to a sustained education or training destination at level 4 or higher (such as degrees, higher apprenticeships and higher national diplomas) in the two years after completing 16 to 19 study.
The proportion of students that progressed to a sustained level 4 or higher destination was 63.4%.
Of the 63.4%, their destinations were as follows:
- 58.4% were studying for a degree (a level 6 qualification)
- 2.5% were participating in an apprenticeship at level 4 or higher
- 2.4% were studying other qualifications at level 4 or 5
School and college level data
Compare school and college performance (CSCP) (opens in new tab) will close soon. From autumn 2026, you will be able to use a new service. Data on CSCP will not be updated past the 2024/25 academic year.
However, you can also view the latest data in this release via the table tool by following these steps:
- At the top of the release, select Explore and download data
- Scroll down to "Data sets: download or create tables" and click "Create table" under "Progression to higher education and training institution level destinations".
- Use the search box to find a school or college by name or unique reference number (URN). Select the required schools and colleges using the tick boxes. You can select multiple schools or colleges. Click "Next step".
- Select the required time period and click "Next step".
- Under "Choose your filters", select the measures you wish to view. the headline destination measure is "Sustained a level 4 or higher destination". You can also select pupil characteristics and qualification level at this stage.
- Click "Create table" to view the data.
You can also download the complete datasets via the same link above.
Changes to the data
The rules that determine if a student is at the end of 16-19 study changed for the 2021 and 2022 cohort of leavers compared to earlier years. In previous releases this caused a discontinuity in the time series. For this statistical release we have recalculated the data from 2016/17 cohort onwards on a consistent basis so all students are deemed to be at the end of 16-19 study using the new rules. This ensures a consistent timeseries in the statistical release. Full details of the change are covered in the methodology document.
Removal of value-added progression scores
Value-added progression scores and other related indicators are not included in this year's publication. Value-added progression scores take into account the key stage 4 prior attainment of students. The latest cohort (2022/23 leavers) were subject to a different grading approach at key stage 4 due to changes made during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Department made a commitment not to use grades awarded in 2020/21 and 2021/22 for accountability measures and therefore the progression score has not been included for this cohort in this release.
What is progression to higher education or training?
Progression to higher education or training shows the percentage of students that sustain an education course or apprenticeship at level 4 or higher in the two years following their 16 to 19 study. The most recent data reports on students who completed 16 to 19 study in the 2022/23 academic year and identifies their education and/or apprenticeship destinations in the two years following their last attendance at a 16 to 19 institution.
The measure is designed to complement the existing destination measures (Destinations after KS4 and 16-19 study) which provide more information on the destinations that are not featured here such as employment and further study at level 3 or below. These measures are produced for a number of purposes, including to assist with provider choice and encourage provider improvement via the school performance data, and to inform the public and stakeholders for policy development.
This progression measure differs from the original measures in that it uses a two-year destination window (rather than one) in order to better report students that take gap years and similar breaks. For previous cohorts it also calculated value-added scores which took both prior attainment at GCSE and main qualification type into account.
Timeliness of data
There is a time lag between students completing their 16 to 19 study and this measure being published. Two years have to elapse during which young people are participating in their chosen destination, and datasets have to be combined before measuring sustained participation in education or apprenticeships. This publication reports on students that completed their 16 to 19 study in summer 2023, and considers their destination activity up to summer 2025.
What is a ‘sustained’ destination?
To be counted in a level 4 or higher destination, students have to be recorded as having sustained participation for a 6 month period in the two-year destination window. This participation can include activity in a single destination or a combination, as long as there are six consecutive months at level 4 or higher.
Who is included in the cohort?
This measure is restricted to students that studied level 3 qualifications as there is less expectation for students studying qualifications at lower levels to progress to level 4 or higher destinations. It thus includes students that studied academic qualifications such as A levels, applied general qualifications, technical levels, or other qualifications that have not been included in performance data but are notionally level 3. The cohort includes students who completed their 16 to 19 study in state-funded mainstream schools and colleges in 2022/23, and focuses on activity during the two years after they last attended a 16 to 19 provider.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic disruption
Destination outcomes in 2020/21 and 2021/22 academic years were affected by the disruption to the economy and educational settings caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. 2020, 2021 and 2022 leavers (with destination outcomes 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2022/23) were also impacted by changes to grading approaches during these years as well as the ongoing uneven impacts of the pandemic on different schools, colleges and pupils.
Removal of value-added progression scores
Value-added progression scores and other related indicators are not included in this year's publication. Value-added progression scores take into account the key stage 4 prior attainment of students. The latest cohort (2022/23 leavers) were subject to a different grading approach at key stage 4 due to changes made during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Department made a commitment not to use grades awarded in 2021/22 for accountability measures and therefore the progression score has not been included for this cohort in this release.
Comparison to previous years
Making comparisons over time
This release covers the 2022/23 cohort of leavers and as such has been impacted by measures taken to prevent the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) and associated disruption to education settings and the economy.
This cohort would have finished level 3 study outside of the examination period that was affected by the pandemic, though the majority of the cohort would have finished key stage 4 study in the 2020/21 academic year, where students were examined using Teacher Assessed Grades (TAGs). Cohorts as far back as 2018/19 would have also been affected by the pandemic, either through one of or a combination of centre assessed grades (CAGs), teacher assessed grades (TAGs), or economic disruption caused by the pandemic in their destination year.
Progression to higher education or training continues to follow decline from peak levels seen during the pandemic
63.4% of this year's cohort progressed to higher education or training, a 1.2 percentage point decrease compared to the previous cohort. This follows a steady decline seen since peak sustained progression to level 4 or higher destinations was seen for the 2019/20 cohort (67.0%). The 2019/20 cohort was directly impacted by the coronavirus pandemic during level 3 study, and were examined using Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs). This led to students being more likely to achieve higher grades than in other years and in turn being more likely to be accepted into higher education institutions.
The trend seen for progression to level 4 or higher destinations over time was driven by degree destinations, where the same general trend is observed.
Higher sustained apprenticeship destinations increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous cohort, following a steady upwards trend since the earliest cohort on record (2016/17). Higher apprenticeship destinations for the 2022/23 cohort (2.5%) are now almost double levels seen in the 2016/17 cohort (1.3%).
In contrast, sustained level 4 or 5 destinations for the current cohort (2.4%) continue a slow general decline seen since the 2016/17 cohort (3.2%).
Student characteristics
Disadvantage status
The gap between disadvantage students (those eligible for pupil premium in year 11) and non-disadvantaged students narrowed by 0.7 percentage points for sustained level 4 or higher destinations, despite remaining wider than pre-pandemic levels.
Disadvantaged students were 7.9 percentage points less likely to sustain a level 4 or higher destination than non-disadvantaged students, narrowing from an 8.6 percentage point gap for the previous cohort, the largest disadvantage gap in recorded data. The gap still remains wider than pre-pandemic levels (5.3 to 6.5 percentage point gap between 2016/17 and 2018/19 cohorts).
56.9% of disadvantaged students sustained a level 4 or higher destination, a 0.7 percentage point decrease compared to the previous cohort. 64.8% of non-disadvantaged students sustained a level 4 or higher destination, a 1.4 percentage point decrease compared to the previous cohort.
The gap is primarily driven by degree destinations, with disadvantaged students 7.3 percentage points less likely to sustain a degree destination (52.5%) than non-disadvantaged students (59.8%). This gap widens for sustained destinations in a top-third higher education destination, with disadvantaged students 9.3 percentage points less likely to sustain a destination (8.8%) than non-disadvantaged students (18.1%).
Non-disadvantaged students were twice as likely to sustain a higher apprenticeship destination (2.8%) than disadvantaged students (1.4%). In contrast, disadvantaged students were more likely to sustain a level 4 or 5 destination (3.1%) than non-disadvantaged students (2.3%).
Sex
Female students continue to progress at a higher rate than male students
Female students were 6.8 percentage points more likely to sustain a level 4 or higher destination compared to male students. 66.5% of female students sustained a level 4 or higher destination, a 1.1 percentage point decrease compared to the previous cohort. 59.7% of male students sustained a level 4 or higher destination, a 1.3 percentage point decrease compared to the previous cohort.
This gap was driven by degree destinations, with female students 8.2 percentage points more likely to sustain a destination (62.2%) than male students (54.0%). However, this gap drops significantly to 1.1 percentage points for students sustaining a top third higher education destination.
In contrast, female students were almost half as likely to sustain a higher apprenticeship destination (1.8%) than male students (3.4%). Female students were similarly likely to sustain a level 4 or 5 destination (2.5%) compared to male students (2.3%).
Ethnicity
Black / African / Caribbean / Black British ethnicity-major group students had the highest level 4 or higher progression rate, despite the lowest progression rate to a top-third higher education destination
Black / African / Caribbean / Black British ethnicity-major group students were most likely to sustain a level 4 or higher destination (79.4%), followed by Asian / Asian British students (79.3%). This follows a 1.0 percentage point increase in the progression rate for Black / African / Caribbean / Black British students since last year in contrast to the other groups who all saw a decline in progression rate.
White students had the lowest progression rate (57.8%), a 21.6 percentage point gap compared to Black / African / Caribbean / Black British students.
In contrast, Black / African / Caribbean / Black British students had the lowest top-third higher education destination progression rate (13.7%), 6.2 percentage points below Asian / Asian British students who had the highest (19.9%). The top-third higher education gap between the top performing group and White students was also substantially smaller (4.2 percentage points), compared to progression to any level 4 or higher destination (21.6 percentage points).
White students were most likely to sustain a higher apprenticeship (2.7%) and level 4 or 5 destination (2.6%).
Disadvantage status and ethnicity
Disadvantaged White students were the least likely to progress to a level 4 or higher destination
44.4% of disadvantaged White students progressed to a level 4 or higher destination, 33.4 percentage points below the highest performing disadvantaged ethnicity-major group (Any other ethnic group) and 19.0 percentage points below the national average.
White students also had the largest disadvantage gap (15.7 percentage points) of all ethnicity-major groups. In contrast, students within the any other ethnic group category had a disadvantage gap of just 1.7 percentage points.
Of non-disadvantaged students, White students again had the lowest progression rate (60.1%), 21.0 percentage points below Asian / Asian British and Black / African / Caribbean / Black British students who had the joint highest progression rate (81.1%).
Disadvantage status and sex
Disadvantaged male students were the least likely to sustain a level 4 or above destination
Disadvantaged male students were 6.3 percentage points less likely to sustain a level 4 or above destination (53.5%) than disadvantaged female students (59.8%). This was mainly driven by a 7.0 percentage point gap in degree destinations. However, for top-third higher education destinations, this gap narrowed to 1.1 percentage points.
Non-disadvantaged male students were 7.0 percentage points less likely to sustain a level 4 or above destination (61.1%) than non-disadvantaged female students (68.1%), meaning the gap in progression for each sex remained similar regardless of disadvantage status. This was again driven by a large gap in degree destinations (8.6 percentage points), with this gap narrowing to 1.3 percentage points for top-third higher education destinations.
The disadvantage gap also remains regardless of sex, with non-disadvantaged males 7.6 percentage points more likely to sustain a level 4 or above destination than disadvantaged males, and non-disadvantaged females 8.3 percentage points more likely to sustain a level 4 or above destination than disadvantaged females. For both sexes, the disadvantage gap was driven by degree destinations, with a 6.6 and 8.2 percentage point gap for males and females, respectively. Both sexes also had a large disadvantage gap for top third higher education destinations, with a 9.2 and 9.4 percentage point gap for males and females, respectively.
Provider type
Students from state-funded mainstream schools were more likely to progress to level 4 or higher education and training (73.5%) than students from state-funded mainstream colleges (49.7%).
The gap has remained broadly stable, despite both groups seeing lower sustained progression to level 4 or higher education and training compared to the previous cohort.
However, this might be due in part to different intentions between school and college students. For example, the 16 to 19 standard destination measures for this cohort (published last year, as the standard measure only considers one year of activity rather than the two used here) showed that while students from schools and colleges completing level 3 study had more similar rates of overall sustained destinations (88.1% vs 82.6% respectively), students from colleges were much more likely to sustain an employment destination (32.8% compared to the 21.7% seen from school students), and less likely to sustain an education destination.
Another factor in the difference between schools and colleges is likely to be that schools tend to have higher prior-attainment intakes. However, data on value-added progression scores, which take account of prior-attainment, is not available this year due to changes to grading approaches which affected this cohort during the pandemic.
Students from non-selective schools in highly-selective areas continue to progress below non-selective schools in less selective areas.
Students from non-selective schools in highly-selective areas (i.e. local authorities with a large proportion of grammar schools such as Kent, Lincolnshire and Buckinghamshire) were 10.4 percentages points less likely to progress to a level 4 or higher destination (61.9%) than students at non-selective schools in other parts of the country (72.3%).
Students from selective schools continued to progress at a very high rate (87.4%), 24.0 percentage points higher than the national average (63.4%). They were 30.6 percentage points more likely to sustain a top third higher education destination (47.0%) than the national average (16.4%).
Regional results
The gap in progression between London and the South West widened to 19.1 percentage points.
London continues to have the highest rates of progression to level 4 or higher (75.3%), while the South West has the lowest (56.2%). This is a 19.1 percentage point gap between London and the region with the lowest progression rate, widening by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous cohort. Though this gap had previously been narrowing year on year since the 2017/18 cohort, it is now increased by a decrease in those sustaining in the South West.
The gap between the progression to level 4 or higher between London (75.3%) and East Midlands (63.9%), the next highest performing region, is a 11.4 percentage point gap. This gap has also widened by 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous cohort . This gap had also previously been narrowing since the 2017/18 cohort.
Part of the reason for this large progression gap is likely to be proximity to Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). Students from London might have the opportunity to sustain degree destinations while living at home, while those from the South West, with fewer local options, may find the necessary travel and rental costs prohibitive. Another contributing factor to London's high progression score could be that it has a higher-than-average ratio of schools to colleges, which might create a stronger bias towards education destinations over employment. However, demographics of the different regions may also play a role, as is discussed in the Student characteristics section.
London also has the highest rates of progression to top third higher education destinations (21.4%), while the North East has the lowest (12.6%). In contrast, the North East has the highest rates of progression to level 4 or 5 course destinations (5.3%), just over twice the national average (2.4%).
Contact us
If you have a specific enquiry about Progression to higher education or training statistics and data:
Destination measures
Email: Destination.MEASURES@education.gov.ukContact name: Robin Davis
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