Longer term destinations
Sustained education, apprenticeship or employment destinations 1, 3 and 5 years after GCSEs. Includes disadvantage and gender breakdowns.
- Published
Headline facts and figures
Overall sustained destinations after 1 year
93.2%
0.1 percentage point decrease since 2017/18 cohort
What are overall sustained destinations?
Overall sustained destinations include sustained education, apprenticeship or employment destinations.
Overall sustained destinations after 3 years
83.3%
3.2 percentage point increase since 2017/18 cohort
2021/22 academic year
Destination in the 2021/22 academic year
Overall sustained destinations after 5 years
81.8%
0.6 percentage point decrease since 2017/18 cohort
2023/24 academic year
Destination in the 2023/24 academic year
This publication is about the longer term destinations of students who reached the end of key stage 4 study in 2018/19 (2019 leavers).
- The proportion of students who sustained an overall destinations 1 and 5 years after finishing key stage 4 remained broadly stable when compared to the previous year's cohort.
- Students who left key stage 4 in 2019 were 3.2 percentage points more likely to be in a sustained destination after 3 years compared to the previous year's cohort. Year 3 for the previous cohort fell in the 2020/21 academic year, which was heavily affected by disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
- Apprenticeship participation was highest in the third year after key stage 4 with 7.8% of students from the cohort being recorded in an apprenticeship. This is a 0.6 percentage point increase compared to the previous year's cohort. Year 3 for the previous cohort fell in the 2020/21 academic year, which was heavily affected by disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
- There were substantial differences in destination outcomes for disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged students. The gap between the two groups in sustaining a destinations was widest 5 years after finishing key stage 4 (18.9 percentage points), a 0.6 percentage point increase compared to the previous year's cohort.
- Female students were more likely than male students to stay in education across the three measured time periods. They were less likely than males to go into apprenticeships or employment.
- Students who left key stage 4 in 2019 were 4.3 percentage points more likely to be in a sustained employment destination after 3 years compared to the previous year's cohort. Year 3 for the previous cohort fell in the 2020/21 academic year, which was heavily affected by disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
What are destination measures?
What are destination measures?
Destination measures provide information on the success of schools and colleges in helping young people continue in education, apprenticeships or employment.
Longer term destinations focus on destination activity 1, 3 and 5 years after completing key stage 4.
This differs from the standard measures which focus on activity in the first year after completing key stage 4 (for example GCSEs) or 16 to 18 study (for example A levels).
The most recent data focuses on students who left key stage 4 in the 2018/19 academic year and identifies their main activity in 2019/20 (when they would typically be age 16 or 17), 2021/22 (age 18 or 19) and 2023/24 (age 20 or 21) academic years.
This publication also contains data on students who left key stage 4 in the 2019/20 and 2020/21 academic years and identifies their main activity in their first and third year after leaving key stage 4. See the table below for the academic years these destination years also take place. To see more details on these cohorts, see the section labelled “Later cohorts”.
The table below details the three cohorts of focus this year, and the academic year each of destination years 1, 3 and 5 would have occurred in:
Destination Year | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Cohort Year | 1 | 3 | 5 |
2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2021/22 | 2023/24 |
2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2022/23 | N/A |
2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2023/24 | N/A |
Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on destination measures
Academic years between 2019/20 and 2021/22 were affected by disruption caused by the pandemic.
The 2019/20 academic year was mostly unaffected by the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic except for apprenticeship destinations, as the methodology takes into account whether students have sustained an apprenticeship for 6 months at anytime in the 2019/20 academic year (August 2019 and July 2020), rather than the first two terms for other destinations. This academic year was the first destination year for the 2018/19 cohort.
The 2020/21 academic year was significantly impacted by COVID-19, with many employers and apprenticeship providers taking on fewer individuals during this period. This academic year was the first destination year for the 2019/20 cohort.
The 2021/22 academic year was also affected by COVID-19 pandemic disruption to the economy and education settings, although employment and apprenticeship destinations generally increased compared to the previous year. The academic year was the first destination year for the 2020/21 cohort and the third destination year for the 2018/19 cohort.
While academic years following 2021/22 were not directly affected by COVID 19, disruption in previous years may have some effect on destinations in these academic years.
What is a ‘sustained’ destination?
To be counted in a destination, young people have to be recorded as having sustained participation for a 6 month period in the destination year. How this rule is applied varies depending on the type of activity measured.
Please see the ‘constructing the measure’ section of the methodology for full details on destination definitions.
This six-month requirement encourages schools and colleges to support and prepare their students to progress to a destination that offers sustained engagement.
In this longer term destinations measure, a sustained destination in the fifth year requires six months of activity in the fifth year only, not sustained activity throughout the five-year period (and likewise for destinations in the third year).
Methodology Changes
There has been a change to the methodology used in the release this year. In previous publications, data from the National Client Caseload Information System (NCCIS) was used to provide additional information on employment activity in the first year following key stage 4. From this publication onwards, we have removed the NCCIS data in the derivation of employment destinations, these are now taken solely from the P45 employment data within the Longitudinal Educational Outcomes (LEO) dataset. This is consistent with the key stage 4 destination measures statistical release.
These changes have been retrospectively applied to years 2016/17 onwards. The effect of these changes sees a decrease in employment destinations, the effect of these changes varies across institution types.
Full details are available in the methodology document accompanying the release.
Change across the years
Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on destination measures
Academic years between 2019/20 and 2021/22 were affected by disruption caused by the pandemic.
For the 2018/19 cohort, destinations 1 and 3 years after key stage 4 (2019/20 and 2021/22, respectively) were directly affected by disruption caused by the pandemic.
For the 2019/20 cohort, destinations 1 year after key stage 4 (2020/21) were severely impacted, with many employers and apprenticeship providers taking on fewer individuals during this period.
For the 2020/21 cohort, destinations 1 year after key stage 4 (2021/22) were directly affected by disruption caused by the pandemic.
While these cohorts may not have been directly impacted by the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in later destination years, disruption from previous years may still have a continued effect.
For 2018/19 leavers, sustained destinations in year 5 decreased by 0.6 percentage points. This followed a 0.3 percentage point decrease in the previous academic year.
The proportion of students who sustained an overall destination one year after finishing key stage 4 was 93.2%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease compared to the previous year's cohort.
The proportion of students who sustained an overall destination three years after finishing key stage 4 was 83.3%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points in comparison to the previous year's cohort. This was primarily driven by a 4.3 percentage point increase in employment destinations. The previous cohort took place in the 2020/21 academic year, which was heavily affected by disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, leading to employers and apprenticeship providers taking on fewer individuals.
81.8% of students had an overall sustained destination five years after finishing key stage 4, down by 0.6 percentage points in comparison to the previous year's cohort. 5 years after key stage 4, sustained education and apprenticeship destinations decreased by 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively compared to the previous year's cohort. Employment destinations remained unchanged.
Pupil characteristics
When is a pupil considered disadvantaged?
Pupils are defined as disadvantaged if they were eligible for pupil premium when they were in Year 11 at school. This includes pupils who had:
- Been eligible for free school meals at any point in the previous six years
- Been looked after by their local authority for at least 1 day
- Left care through adoption, a special guardianship order, or a child arrangements order (previously known as a residence order).
This information comes from local authority records and the School Census.
Disadvantage Status
The gap between disadvantaged students and non-disadvantaged students sustaining an overall destination was widest 5 years after finishing key stage 4 study.
Compared to the previous cohort (2017/18 leavers), the disadvantage gap increased by 0.1 percentage points 1 year after completing key stage 4 (8.5 to 8.6 percentage points). In the third year after completing key stage 4, the gap had narrowed by 1.3 percentage points (14.8 to 13.5 percentage points). The gap in the fifth year following key stage 4 widened by 0.6 percentage points (18.3 to 18.9 percentage points).
In the first year following key stage 4, the disadvantage gap (8.6 percentage points) is primarily driven by education destinations, with disadvantaged students 7.9 percentage points less likely to sustain an education destination.
3 years after leaving key stage 4, the disadvantage gap (13.5 percentage points) is influenced by all major destination types. Disadvantaged students were 7.3 percentage points less likely to sustain an education destination, 3.2 percentage points less likely to sustain an apprenticeship destination and 3.0 percentage points less likely to sustain an employment destination.
5 years after leaving key stage 4, the disadvantage gap (18.9 percentage points) is mostly driven by education destinations, with disadvantaged students 17.0 percentage points less likely to sustain an education destination than non-disadvantaged students.
Non-disadvantaged students are more likely to sustain an apprenticeship destination 1, 3, and 5 years after completing key stage 4.
Prior Attainment
Students who achieved grades 9-4 in English and maths at key stage 4 were more likely to sustain an overall destination than those who did not achieve these grades
2018/19 leavers who achieved grades 9-4 in English and maths at key stage 4 were 24.0 percentage points more likely to sustain a destination 5 years after finishing key stage 4 than those who did not achieve the grades. This gap has widened by 1.0 percentage point compared to the previous year's cohort.
This gap is driven by higher education destinations for students who achieved grades 9-4 in English and Maths at key stage 4. The gap in education destinations also increased with each recorded destination year. After 1 year, students who achieved grades 9-4 in English and Maths at key stage 4 were 16.4 percentage points more likely to sustain an education destination. This increases to 21.1 and 39.9 percentage points in year 3 and 5, respectively.
Apprenticeship destinations were higher for students who did achieve grades 9-4 in English and Maths 5 years after key stage 4 by 1.1 percentage points. However, students who did not achieve grades 9-4 in English and Maths were more likely to sustain an apprenticeship destination 1 and 3 years after finishing key stage 4 by 2.0 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.
Employment destinations were higher for students who did not achieve grades 9-4 in English and Maths 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4 by 2.4, 4.2 and 17.0 percentage points, respectively.
Sex
Female students were more likely to have an overall sustained destination 1, 3 and 5 years after finishing key stage 4 than male students
Female students were 2.0 percentage points more likely to have a sustained destination than male students 1 year after finishing key stage 4. After 3 years, this gap widens to 3.7 percentage points, then remains unchanged at 3.7 percentage points after 5 years.
This gap is driven by education destinations in each of the recorded years, with the education gap at 4.4, 8.4 and 13.9 percentage points at 1,3 and 5 years respectively. Compared to the previous year's cohort, the gap remained broadly stable in the first and fifth years, with the gap narrowing by 0.5 percentage points in the third year after key stage 4 (8.9 to 8.4 percentage points).
Male students were more likely than female students to sustain both apprenticeship and employment destinations in each year following key stage 4.
Special Educational Needs
Students with special educational needs (SEN) in state-funded mainstream schools were less likely to have a sustained destination 1, 3 and 5 years after completing key stage 4
The gap between students with SEN support or an educational health care (EHC) plan or statement and those without SEN widens across the recorded years after key stage 4.
For SEN students, those with an EHC plan or statement were more likely to sustain a destination than those with SEN support 1 and 3 years after key stage 4, with the gap at 1.8 and 1.7 percentage points, respectively. This is driven by education destinations, with students with an EHC plan or statement 5.7 percentage points more likely to sustain an education destination over SEN support students in the first year after key stage 4, and 17.3 percentage points more likely 3 years after key stage 4.
5 years after key stage 4, students with SEN support are 8.2 percentage points more likely to sustain a destination than those with an EHC plan or statement. This is primarily driven by education destinations, as students with an EHC plan or statement see a 29.0 percentage point drop in sustained education destinations between their third and fifth year following key stage 4, greater than the 17.6 percentage point drop for students with SEN support.
While students with an EHC plan or statement were more likely to sustain an education destination 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4 compared to students with SEN support, the type of education destination differed between the two groups. Students with an EHC plan or statement were more likely to sustain a further education destination than SEN support students 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4 (a gap of 7.6, 17.9 and 9.4 percentage points, respectively). In contrast, SEN support students were 5.2 and 5.1 percentage points more likely to sustain a higher education destination 3 and 5 years after key stage 4.
Ethnicity
Pupils from Indian and Chinese backgrounds were most likely to sustain a destination 1, 3 and 5 years after completing key stage 4
Students of Chinese and Indian background had the highest sustained destinations 1 year after completing key stage 4, at 98.5% and 97.4%, respectively. After 5 years, students of Chinese and Indian backgrounds still have the highest sustained destinations at 93.3% and 89.2%, respectively. Students of Chinese and Indian backgrounds also have the lowest decline in sustained destinations across their first and fifth year after key stage 4, at 5.2 and 8.2 percentage points, respectively.
This was driven by education destinations, with students of Chinese or Indian, along with students of other Asian backgrounds, most likely to sustain an education destination 5 years after finishing key stage 4. Students of Black African and Bangladeshi background were similarly likely to sustain an education destination in year 3, but experience a much larger drop between their third and fifth year compared to students of the other three backgrounds, with education destinations of students of Chinese background slightly increasing between years 3 and 5.
Students of White British background were most likely to sustain an apprenticeship destination 3 and 5 years after key stage 4, with students of Traveller of Irish Heritage most likely to sustain an apprenticeship destination 1 year after key stage 4. Students of White British background were also most likely to sustain a employment destination 3 and 5 years after key stage 4, with students of Gypsy Roma and Traveller of Irish Heritage backgrounds most likely to sustain an employment destination in the first year after key stage 4.
Geographical location
Destinations by Region
Students from the North East were less likely to have an overall sustained destination 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4 study than students from other regions in England
East of England, Outer London, South East and South West students were mostly likely to sustain an overall destination 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4.
Students in London were more likely to sustain an education destination 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4 than students from other regions. The gap between London and the region with the next highest education destinations widens from 3.2 to 14.9 percentage points in the first and third years after key stage 4, respectively. After 5 years, this gap narrows to 12.0 percentage points.
Students in the North East were the most likely to sustain an apprenticeship destination 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4, while students in the South West were most likely to sustain an employment destination 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4.
A chart is also available below for local authority data.
Types of destination
Education Destinations
Higher education is the most common destination type 3 and 5 years after finishing key stage 4 study. Sixth form colleges or school sixth forms were the most common destination type 1 year after key stage 4 study.
Sixth form colleges or school sixth forms were the most common education destination one year after finishing key stage 4 (50.5%). This was followed by further education colleges (35.8%) and other education institutions (0.8%).
Higher education institutions were the most common education destination 3 years after finishing key stage 4 (34.2%). This was followed by further education colleges (12.2%), sixth form colleges and school sixth forms at 2.8%, with other education institutions at 0.2%.
Higher education institutions were by far the most common education destination 5 years after finishing key stage 4 (41.5%). By year 5, only 1.2% of students were in a further education college. The remaining education destinations make up less than 0.1% of the cohort each by year 5.
Year 3 marks the peak in apprenticeship activity at 7.8% compared to 1 and 5 years after finishing key stage 4
Apprenticeship destinations in the third year following key stage 4 have increased 0.6 percentage points (7.8%) compared to last year’s cohort (7.2%). While an increase was expected for this cohort year, with the previous cohort year experiencing disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic leading to apprenticeship providers taking on fewer individuals, this does not return to the levels seen for the 2016/17 cohort and earlier (9.0% or higher). Furthermore, later cohort data shows apprenticeship destinations remain broadly stable for the 2019/20 and 2020/21 cohorts, at 7.7% and 7.8%, respectively.
Advanced apprenticeships remain the most common level of apprenticeships 3 and 5 years after key stage 4 (4.2% and 3.5%, respectively), while intermediate apprenticeships are the most common level of apprenticeship 1 year after key stage 4 (2.4%).
Provider type
Special schools
The gap between special school leavers and mainstream school leavers grows substantially wider (7.0 to 34.0 percentage points) between year 3 and 5. This is driven by a large drop in education destinations between year 3 and 5 for special school leavers, with a relatively small increase in apprenticeship and employment destinations.
For special schools, overall sustained destinations were 4.9 and 7.0 percentage points below mainstream schools 1 and 3 years after key stage 4, respectively. This gap widens substantially to 34.0 percentage points in year 5 as overall sustained destinations drop by 28.5 percentage points for special school leavers.
Mainstream leavers experience a 37.6 percentage point drop in education destinations between years 1 and 3, which is accompanied by a 4.1 and 23.7 percentage point increase in apprenticeship and employment destinations, respectively. In contrast, special school leavers see a 33.2 percentage point drop in education destinations between years 3 and 5, accompanied by much smaller increases of 0.2 and 4.5 percentage points in apprenticeship and employment destinations.
Alternative Provision
Pupils leaving alternative provision were much less likely to sustain a destination 1, 3, and 5 years after finishing key stage 4 compared to mainstream and special schools.
For alternative provision, overall sustained destinations are considerably lower than special and particularly mainstream schools across the recorded period. The gap between alternative provision schools and mainstream schools widens from 37.0 in year 1 to 42.6 and 50.4 percentage points 3 and 5 years after key stage 4, respectively.
State-funded alternative provision schools have slightly higher sustained destinations 5 years after key stage 4 compared to other alternative provision. This contrasts with the first year, where state-funded alternative provision schools have significantly lower sustained destinations to other alternative provision (48.1% vs 85.7%).
This contrast in sustained destinations is primarily driven by a larger drop in education destinations for other alternative provision (71.2 percentage points between the first and fifth year after key stage 4), along with higher employment destinations across the recorded period for state-funded alternative provision schools.
State-funded mainstream schools
Converter academies have the highest sustained destinations 1,3, and 5 years after finishing key stage 4. They also have the lowest drop in sustained destinations over this period.
State-funded mainstream schools have the highest sustained destinations and smallest drop across 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4 compared to special and alternative provision schools. State-funded mainstream schools experience an 11.4 percentage point drop in sustained destinations between 1 and 5 years after key stage 4, much smaller than the 24.8 and 40.5 percentage point drop for alternative provision and special schools, respectively.
The ranking of mainstream institution types in terms of sustained destinations remains fairly consistent 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4, with converter academies followed by free or local authority maintained schools. 14-16 further education colleges have the lowest sustained destinations throughout the recorded destination years, with the gap in sustained destinations to the next lowest performing institution type (studio schools) at 8.5, 11.3 and 12.5 percentage points 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4.
Later cohorts
What are later cohorts?
While the rest of this publication focuses on students leaving key stage 4 in the 2018/19 academic year, this section will focus on 2019/20 and 2020/21 leavers. For these cohorts, data is only provided 1 and 3 years after students finish key stage 4, as the year 5 data is not yet available.
This section will primarily focus on the 2020/21 cohort and their sustained destinations 3 years after finishing key stage 4, as this data is new to this publication.
Education destinations continued to drop for the 2020/21 cohort in year 3, and remain below the levels seen for the earliest comparable data (2016/17 cohort).
Compared to the previous 2019/20 cohort, the driver for the drop in education destinations appears to be higher education, with a 1.4 percentage point drop, (33.7% to 32.3%). However, this remains higher than the earliest comparable data for the 2016/17 cohort (31.6%). While further education destinations increased by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous cohort (10.1% to 10.3%), this remains lower than the 2016/17 cohort (12.9%).
Apprenticeship destinations have remained broadly stable compared to the previous cohort (7.7% to 7.8%), remaining below levels seen for the 2016/17 cohort (9.0%).
While employment destinations decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous cohort (27.5% to 27.1%), this remains higher than levels seen for the 2016/17 cohort (25.4%).
While 2019/20 and 2020/21 leavers are not considered to be directly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic 3 years after key stage 4 (the 2022/23 and 2023/24 academic years), these cohorts were examined using Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs) and Teacher Assessed Grades (TAGs), respectively. Furthermore, both cohorts would have been affected by disruption caused by the pandemic in their first year following key stage 4. Therefore, some deviation of sustained destinations compared to earlier cohorts may be in part due to disruption caused by the pandemic having a continued effect on their destinations in the following years.
Contact us
If you have a specific enquiry about Longer term destinations statistics and data:
Destination measures
Email: Destination.MEASURES@education.gov.ukContact name: Robert Stevenson
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