Comparing KS4 headline measures over time
The time series data for the main KS4 headline measures are shown in Table 1. The attainment measures have been affected by the cancellation of GCSE exams for the 2019/20 and 2020/21 academic years and by their replacement with centre assessment grades and teacher assessed grades.
Therefore, comparisons between results awarded in 2021, 2020 and earlier years are not recommended as the increases seen in the headline statistics likely reflect the changed method for awarding grades rather than demonstrating a step change improvement in standards.
Whilst it is not possible to compare pupil attainment across years to detect improvements in pupil performance, the data can show whether attainment gaps for pupils with particular characteristics have changed between years.
The next sections provide data on EBacc entry and the headline attainment measures by various pupil characteristics (e.g. by disadvantage status, first language, special educational needs, gender, ethnicity and prior attainment) for the latest three years to identify any changes in the attainment gap.
KS4 Attainment focussing on disadvantage pupils
In 2020/21, 26.4% of pupils at the end of key stage 4 in state-funded schools were recorded as disadvantaged compared with 26.0% in 2019/20 and 26.5% of pupils in 2018/19.
Pupils are defined as disadvantaged if they are known to have been eligible for free school meals at any point in the past six years (from year 6 to year 11), if they are recorded as having been looked after for at least one day or if they are recorded as having been adopted from care.
Entry to EBacc and attainment across each headline measure was lower for disadvantaged pupils compared to all other pupils in 2021.
The attainment gap, for the differences between disadvantaged pupils and non-disadvantaged pupils, has increased when comparing 2018/19 exam data with 2020/21 TAG data for both the percentage achieving grades 5 and above in English and maths and average Attainment 8. Table 7 shows:
- for the percentage of pupils achieving grades 5 and above in English and maths the gap has widened from 25.2 percentage points to 27.5 percentage points.
- the average Attainment 8 gap has widened from 13.6 points to 14.4 points.
- the gap remains at 1.4 points for the EBacc APS
- and the gap has narrowed for the rate of entry to the full EBacc; from 17.0 percentage points to 15.9 percentage points.
Further information on how well disadvantaged pupils achieve compared to non-disadvantaged pupils is available in the section on the Disadvantaged Gap Index - which is a measure that is more robust over time and contains a time series from 2009/10.
KS4 Attainment focussing on pupils with English as an additional language
“First language” is the language to which a child was initially exposed during early development and continues to be exposed to in the home or in the community. Being a pupil whose first language is other than English does not mean that the pupil is necessarily fluent in a language other than English or cannot speak English.
In 2020/21, 17.0% of pupils at the end of KS4 in state-funded schools had a first language other than English (excluding those pupils whose first language is unclassified). This measure has seen a small but gradual increase over the last few year e.g. it was 16.9% in 2019/20 and 16.7% in 2018/19.
Over the last three years pupils with English as an additional language (EAL) have had slightly better attainment than pupils with English as their first language (Non EAL) across all the headline measures.
Comparing 2018/19 exam data with 2020/21 TAG data, the gaps in attainment between EAL and non EAL pupils have shown only small changes. For example:
- for the percentage achieving grades 5 and above in English and maths the gap has widened from 0.6 percentage points to 0.9 percentage points.
- the average Attainment 8 gap has widened from 1.0 points to 1.3 points.
- the gap has increased from 0.2 points to 0.3 points for the EBacc APS.
- the gap has increased for the rate of entry to the full EBacc; from 11.2 percentage points to 12.3 percentage points.
KS4 Attainment focussing on pupils with Special Educational Needs (SEN)
The SEN category indicates whether a pupil has learning difficulties or disabilities that make it harder for them to learn than most children of the same age. Pupils with special educational needs include those with SEN support or an education, health and care (EHC) plan. More information on these is given in the methodology document.
In 2020/21, 15.2% of pupils at the end of key stage 4 in state-funded schools had a special educational need compared with 14.7% in 2019/20 and 14.2% in 2018/19.
Over the last three years pupils with SEN have had significantly lower attainment than pupils without SEN across all the headline measures.
Comparing 2018/19 exam data with 2020/21 TAG data, the gaps in attainment between SEN and non SEN pupils have shown the following changes:
- the gap for the percentage achieving grades 5 and above in English and maths has widened from 34.4 percentage points to 39.7 percentage points. The vast majority of this gap is due to the change between 2018/19 and 2019/20 - where it widened from 34.4 to 39.0.
- the average Attainment 8 gap has widened from 22.3 points to 23.4 points and the EBacc APS gap has widened from 2.2 points to 2.3 points.
- the gap has decreased for the rate of entry to the full EBacc; from 31.0 percentage points to 29.6 percentage points.
KS4 Attainment focussing on pupils by ethnicity
In 2020/21, pupils from the White ethnic category made up 74.6% of pupils at the end of key stage 4 in state-funded schools (of those where ethnicity data was provided). 11.3% of pupils were from the Asian ethnic category, 6.2% were from the Black ethnic category, 5.6% were from the Mixed ethnic category, 0.4% were from the Chinese ethnic category and 2.0% were from Other ethnic categories.
With the national EBacc entry rate decreasing by 1.3 percentage points (between 2019/20 and 2020/21) pupils from both the Mixed ethnic category and the White ethnic category saw the largest decreases; 2.5 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points respectively.
For the attainment statistics all major ethnic groups have seen increases between 2018/19 and 2020/21 – which is due to the way GCSE grades were awarded in 2020 and 2021. However, during that period pupils from the Black ethnic category saw the largest increases.
For example, pupils from the Black ethnic category had the largest increase for percentage achieving English and maths at grades 5 and above (11.1 percentage points higher than 2018/19) and for the average Attainment 8 (5.1 points higher than 2018/19).
Further information on the attainment of pupils from the detailed ethnicity categories is available here: https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-tables/fast-track/b0e13273-c9eb-4bf9-8b62-0640bbdbb1c4
KS4 Attainment focussing on pupils by gender
In 2020/21, 49.0% of pupils at the end of key stage 4 in state-funded schools were girls and 51.0% were boys. This remains unchanged over the last three years. As in previous years, more girls enter the full EBacc than boys and girls continue to do better than boys across all headline attainment measures.
Comparing 2018/19 exam data with 2020/21 TAG data, the gaps in attainment between girls and boys have shown the following changes:
- the gap for the percentage achieving grades 5 and above in English and maths has widened from 6.6 percentage points to 7.6 percentage points (although comparing to 2019/20 the gaps has reduced from 8.2 percentage points to 7.6 percentage points).
- the average Attainment 8 gap has widened slightly from 5.5 points to 5.8 points and the EBacc APS gap has also widened from 0.48 to 0.52.
- the gap has narrowed for the rate of entry to the full EBacc; from 11.6 percentage points to 10.6 percentage points.
KS4 Attainment by Key Stage 2 prior attainment
The calculation for the prior attainment categories has changed between between 2019/20 and 2020/21 - as a consequence of the introduction of Key Stage 2 scaled scores in 2016. As discussed earlier, the introduction of KS2 scaled scores has had an impact on the distribution of pupils by prior attainment. In summary, the impact has been to reduce the number of pupils in the high prior attainment group and increase the number of pupils in the low and middle prior attainment groups.
This means that caution is required when comparing the results over time. The changes seen will be driven by a combination of the changed prior attainment distribution and the impact of the TAGs.
The following table shows the headline measures by KS2 prior attainment over the last three years. Pupils with high prior attainment continue to have better attainment levels than those pupils in the middle prior attainment group and much better attainment levels than those pupils in the low prior attainment group - across all the headline measures.
Comparing 2018/19 exam data with 2020/21 TAG data, the gaps in attainment between pupils in the high prior attainment category and pupils in the low prior attainment category have shown the following changes:
- the gap for the percentage achieving grades 5 and above in English and maths has widened from 74.6 percentage points to 80.4 percentage points (the 2018/19 to 2019/20 equivalent gap was 80.8 percentage points).
- the average Attainment 8 gap has increased by 0.2 points (the gap has narrowed slightly between 2019/20 and 2020/21) from 39.7 points to 39.9 points.
- the EBacc APS gap has also increased by 0.2 points from 3.9 points to 4.1 points.
- the gap has increased for the rate of entry to the full EBacc; from 49.0 percentage points to 50.0 percentage points (having narrowed to 47.5 percentage points between 2018/19 and 2019/20).
Pupil attainment levels by local authority varies considerably
Pupil attainment varies considerably across the country. The variation in EBacc entry and the headline attainment statistics by local authority is shown in the following table.
| Minimum | Maximum | Range |
---|
% entering EBacc | 19.0% | 68.2% | 49.2 percentage points |
% achieving 5 or above in English and Maths | 26.2% | 71.6% | 45.4 percentage points |
Average attainment 8 score per pupil | 37.8 | 62.0 | 24.2 points |
EBacc average point score | 3.12 | 5.68 | 2.56 points |
The local authorities with the highest pupil attainment averages tend to be concentrated in London and the south with the majority of the local authorities with the lowest pupil attainment averages located in the northern and midland regions (as shown in the map in figure 5). This is similar to patterns seen in recent years.