In the first two waves of the survey, local authorities were asked to report the number of referrals to children’s social care services they received in the last week. From the third wave, local authorities were asked for the number of referrals to children’s social care services the week before last to account for the lag in reporting that affected waves 1 and 2. As such, the figures from Wave 3 onwards are not directly comparable to Waves 1 and 2.
From Wave 3 onwards local authorities were also asked to report the sources of their referrals.
In each wave, we have calculated the difference to the ‘usual’ level of referrals at that point in the year. For the total number of referrals, the ‘usual’ level is defined as the average of the same week in each year between 2017-20. For each referral source, the ‘usual’ level is defined as the same week in 2020.
The number of referrals to children’s social care services reported in the survey were on average around 9% lower than usual. Overall, it is estimated that there have been around 99,000 fewer referrals between May 2020 and July 2022 compared to 2017-20; this estimate takes into account local authorities that did not respond and weeks not covered by the survey. These estimates are broadly supported by the ‘Characteristics of children in need 2020 to 2021’ publication which found that referrals between April 2020 – March 2021 were 7% lower than the previous year. In the latest ‘Characteristics of children in need 2021 to 2022’ publication, referrals between April 2021 and March 2022 returned to pre-pandemic levels and were 1.1% higher than in 2019-20.
During the first wave of the pandemic in late May 2020, referrals were 16% lower than usual. At this time, schools were closed to all children except those who were classed as vulnerable, or whose parents were key workers, and thus referrals from schools were 76% lower than usual. Referrals from health services, individuals and other sources were also lower than usual at 18%, 10% and 5% lower respectively, whereas referrals from police were 16% higher.
Compared to the same time in 2017-20, referrals reached their lowest point in January-February 2021. This coincided with a second period of restrictions where schools were closed in January and February, after reopening in September 2020. Although referrals from all sources were lower than usual at this time, referrals from schools saw the biggest difference and were 57% lower.
The number of referrals began trending towards usual levels after the second wave of the pandemic ended in April 2021; referrals were around 4% lower than usual between May 2021 and July 2022.
Difference in referrals received from each source compared to the 3-year average of the same week across 2017 to 2020
| Wave | Referrals from individuals | Referrals from schools | Referrals from health services | Referrals from police | Referrals from other sources |
| Wave 3 (18 - 24 May 2020) | -10% | -76% | -18% | 16% | -5% |
| Wave 4 (01 - 07 June 2020) | -2% | -74% | -5% | 16% | -7% |
| Wave 5 (15 - 21 June 2020) | -2% | -65% | -8% | 13% | -11% |
| Wave 6 (29 June - 05 July 2020) | 2% | -58% | 2% | 19% | -10% |
| Wave 7 (13 - 19 July 2020) | 11% | -52% | -3% | 12% | -13% |
| Wave 8 (10 - 16 August 2020)* | 26% | -29% | 4% | 29% | -3% |
| Wave 9 (24 - 30 August 2020)* | 8% | -71% | 2% | 12% | -4% |
| Wave 10 (07 - 13 September 2020) | 3% | -21% | 4% | 4% | -13% |
| Wave 11 (21 - 27 September 2020) | 1% | -15% | 7% | 6% | -4% |
| Wave 12 (05 - 11 October 2020) | -9% | -3% | -10% | 1% | -11% |
| Wave 13 (19 - 25 October 2020)* | 0% | 100% | -7% | -2% | -3% |
| Wave 14 (02 - 08 November 2020) | -10% | -23% | -9% | -8% | -13% |
| Wave 15 (16 - 22 November 2020) | -11% | -5% | -6% | 2% | -6% |
| Wave 16 (30 November - 06 December 2020) | -16% | -9% | 7% | 4% | -10% |
| Wave 17 (28 December 2020 - 03 January 2021)* | 26% | -30% | 19% | 29% | 22% |
| Wave 18 (11 - 17 January 2021) | -9% | -60% | -6% | -13% | -10% |
| Wave 19 (25 - 31 January 2021) | -21% | -57% | -8% | -10% | -9% |
| Wave 20 (08 - 14 February 2021) | -5% | -56% | -7% | -11% | -15% |
| Wave 21 (22 - 28 February 2021) | -5% | -41% | -6% | 0% | -18% |
| Wave 22 (08 - 14 March 2021) | -7% | -23% | -9% | -3% | -11% |
| Wave 23 (05 - 11 April 2021)* | -15% | -63% | -7% | -1% | -20% |
| Wave 24 (03 - 09 May 2021) | -5% | 3% | 3% | 0% | -10% |
| Wave 25 (31 May - 06 June 2021)* | -14% | -37% | -9% | -5% | -25% |
| Wave 26 (05 - 11 July 2021) | -7% | -5% | -9% | 1% | -10% |
| Wave 27 (06 - 12 September 2021) | -3% | 27% | -11% | 8% | -13% |
| Wave 28 (04 - 10 October 2021) | -17% | -7% | -21% | 0% | -8% |
| Wave 29 (01 - 07 November 2021) | -18% | 9% | -1% | -2% | -18% |
| Wave 30 (29 November - 05 December 2021) | -6% | -7% | 0% | -1% | -11% |
| Wave 31 (20-26 December 2021)* | 9% | -55% | 3% | 5% | -7% |
| Wave 32 (03-09 Janauary 2022)* | -27% | -19% | -14% | -14% | -29% |
| Wave 33 (17-23 January 2022) | -16% | -4% | -1% | 0% | -18% |
| Wave 34 (31 January - 06 February 2022) | -8% | 5% | -6% | 11% | -6% |
| Wave 35 (28 February - 06 March 2022) | -14% | -1% | -12% | -3% | -16% |
| Wave 36 (28 March - 03 April 2022) | 0% | -13% | -7% | 3% | -15% |
| Wave 37 (02 - 08 May 2022) | -6% | -6% | -3% | 1% | -9% |
| Wave 38 (06 - 12 June 2022) | 17% | -8% | -2% | 13% | -7% |
| Wave 39 (04 - 10 July 2022) | -9% | -1% | -16% | -1% | -11% |
Footnotes
- Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number
- The survey was collected on a fortnightly basis between May 2020 and March 2021, a monthly basis between April and December 2021, fortnightly in January 2022 and then returned to monthly from February 2022. There was no collection during August 2021.
- See Methodology for the number of local authorities that responded to the question per wave.
- The figures from 18 May onwards are not directly comparable to earlier waves.
- *These comparisons should be treated with caution due to the timing of school holidays from year to year.
- Survey data for some local authorities was removed due to known data quality issues. Comparator data for these LAs was also removed.
- Comparator data was only included for local authorities that responded to each wave.
- Other sources include local authority services, legal agencies and children’s centres.
Some local authorities used the general open text question (on trends, challenges and good practice) to tell us about the volumes and types of referrals that they were receiving. Between May to September 2020 when schools were mostly closed, many local authorities anticipated a spike in referrals when schools re-opened and provided examples of actions they were taking to predict, plan for and mitigate the impact of this, such as increasing capacity of front-line teams and providing targeted help to prevent escalations.
Local authorities again expected a spike in referrals in April 2021 following the second wave of the pandemic, and provided further examples of mitigating actions, such as providing support earlier and working with schools to manage demand.
During the third wave of the pandemic (December 2021) local authorities again expected an increase in demand due to the pandemic but also due to the high-profile child death cases of Arthur Labinjo-Hughes and Star Hobson that were reported in the media. At that time, local authorities said that they were planning and forecasting for referrals based on what they saw in the early stages of the pandemic.
Some local authorities used the open text question to describe the types of referrals that they were receiving. An increase in cases involving domestic abuse featured in most waves of the survey. In earlier survey waves, local authorities described an increase in the complexity of cases that they were seeing. Examples of increased case complexity included: elevated mental health issues amongst parents and children, increases in cases involving young people self-harming, more cases involving neglect and emotional abuse, increased cases involving non-accidental injury, more cases where there were parental issues relating to alcohol and mental health, increases in the number of new-born children presenting in care proceedings, more referrals where the family were in acute crisis and escalations of risks in cases that are already open to children’s social care.
In later survey waves (from June 2021) some local authorities said that issues to do with young people’s mental health and social/emotional needs were common features in the referrals that they were receiving. In their responses, some local authorities provided an explanation for the increase in case complexity. Some suggested that it was explained by the reduced availability of some support services at that time and that some services that were having to be provided virtually were not able to adequately support children and families. Some felt that the increase in case complexity was linked to the amount of time that families were spending together, leading to a more pressurised home environment.