To account for the uncertainty in projecting occupation growth this release includes four plausible scenarios for the growth of the total UK economy and the STEM sector. These scenarios use a combination of published employment projections, ONS population projections and international comparisons.
Our baseline growth scenario, under which STEM employment will grow by 4% between 2023 and 2030, comes from the Skills Imperative 2035 employment projections led by the National Foundation for Education Research. This scenario varies growth by occupation by anticipating a continuation of past trends in industry and occupation growth alongside modest population growth and total employment growth.
The second technological growth scenario, also from the Skills Imperative 2035 employment projections, has STEM employment growing by 6% between 2023 and 2030. As in the baseline growth scenario, growth rates vary by occupation. This scenario accounts for faster technological change and adoption of automation technologies. It assumes new jobs around improved management of technologies, the transition to a low-carbon economy, and the provision of better-quality education, health and care services.
The third population growth scenario assumes that STEM employment will grow at the same rate as the population and the proportion of the workforce in STEM occupations will remain at its current level. Under this scenario, the STEM workforce will grow by 2% between 2023 and 2030 in each occupation. Note that the growth in population is driven by migration forecasts from the ONS which are inherently uncertain, and the UK working age population is otherwise expected to fall between 2023 and 2030 as a higher proportion of the population is in retirement.
The high growth scenario assumes STEM employment will increase by 10% in each occupation between 2023 and 2030. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics project employment in STEM occupations (opens in a new tab) to increase by 10.8% between 2022 and 2032, though whilst similar there will be some differences in the definition of STEM, notably in the US teaching is included.