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Financial year 2022-23
Student loan forecasts for England
Data guidance
Published
Description
This document describes the data included in the ‘Student loan forecasts for England’ Official Statistics release’s underlying data files.
The methodology document should be referenced alongside this data. It provides information on the data sources, their coverage and quality as well as explaining methodology used in producing the data.
Coverage
This release provides the latest information on forecasts for higher education and further education student loans in England. These include forecasts of student entrants, student loan outlay and student loan repayments. Only income-contingent student loans issued to English domiciled students studying in the UK or EU domiciled students studying in England are included. The forecasts are based on models developed by the Department for Education (DfE), details of quality and methodology are provided in the methodology document accompanying this publication.
This is the seventh in an annual series of statistics publications on student loan forecasts. It covers forecasts produced during the 2022-23 financial year, primarily covering the period 2022-23 to 2027-28.
File formats and conventions
The following symbol is used in the underlying data files as follows:
z data not applicable
x data not available
low figures which round to 0, but are not 0
Data files
All data files associated with this releases are listed below with guidance on their content. To download any of these files, please visit our data catalogue.
Table 1: Historical student loan outlay and forecast student loan outlay, by loan product
Filename
long_1.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2012-13 to 2027-28
Content
Historical and forecast student loan outlay by loan product in £ millions
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
actual_forecast
Actual or Forecast - Filter by actuals or forecast
loan_outlay_£m
Loan outlay
loan_product
Loan product - Filter by loan product
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest £5 million.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
Where you see ‘low’ this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2023-24 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Table 2a: Forecast number of students receiving loans, by loan product
Filename
long_2a.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2019/20 to 2027/28
Content
Forecast number of student receiving loans by loan product in thousands of students
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
actual_forecast
Actual or Forecast - Filter by actuals or forecast
loan_product
Loan product - Filter by loan product
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
number_of_students_thousands
Number of students (thousands)
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1,000 borrowers.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
Where you see ‘low’ this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
Where you see the symbol 'x' this refers to not available.
Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in both totals.
The 2019/20 and 2020/21 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data, apart from Plan 3 figures. Plan 3 actuals are taken from SLC publication ‘Student support for higher education in England 2022’. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/student-support-for-higher-education-in-england-2022
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2023-24 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Table 2b: Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans, by loan product
Filename
long_2b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2019/20 to 2027/28
Content
Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans by loan product in thousands of student entrants
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
actual_forecast
Actual or Forecast - Filter by actuals or forecast
loan_product
Loan product - Filter by loan product
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
number_of_student_entrants_thousands
Number of students entrants (thousands)
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
Coverage: Entrant borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1,000 borrowers.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
Where you see ‘low’ this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
Where you see the symbol 'x' this refers to not available.
Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in both totals.
The 2019/20 and 2020/21 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data, apart from Plan 3 figures. Plan 3 actuals are taken from SLC publication ‘Student support for higher education in England 2022’. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/student-support-for-higher-education-in-england-2022
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2023-24 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Table 3: Forecast student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest accrued by loan borrowers and cancelled loans, by loan product
Filename
long_3.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022-23 to 2027-28
Content
Forecast of student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest and cancelled loans between 2022-23 and 2027-28 in £ million.
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
cancelled_loans_£m
Cancelled loans
capitalised_interest_£m
Capitalised interest
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_£m
Loan outlay
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
repayments_£m
Repayments
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest £5 million.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
Where you see ‘low’ this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
Repayment forecasts assume that PAYE obligatory repayments are made in the same year in which the borrower had the income on which they are based. In reality some repayments made through PAYE will be received the following year, particularly repayments based on earnings in the final month of the year.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2023-24 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137
No overpayments or refunds are modelled for borrowers that fully repay their loans; it is assumed that all borrowers finish making repayments once their loan balance reaches £0. In reality some borrowers overpay their loans, particularly if making repayments via HMRC, and are entitled to receive refunds.
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
stock_charge
Stock charge
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
The stock charge is the proportion of the outstanding loan balance at the start of the year that we expect not to be repaid when future repayments are valued in present terms.
Stock charges cannot be negative as they measure the level of government subsidy to the student loan system. If the future repayments are forecast to have a higher net present value than the initial loan outlay or the face value of the outstanding loans using the HM Treasury (HMT) discount rate then the stock charge is required to use a discount rate equal to the rate intrinsic to the loan product, which is the rate that sets the stock charge to 0%. See the quality and methodology information document accompanying this publication for further information. Without this rule, the figure produced by the student loan repayment model using the HMT discount rate is -9% for the master's stock charge in 2022-23.
Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Table 4b: Forecast Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge, by loan product
Filename
long_4b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022-23 to 2027-28
Content
RAB charge in % by loan product
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
rab_charge
RAB charge
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
The RAB charge is the proportion of loan outlay made during the year that we expect not to be repaid when future repayments are valued in present terms.
RAB charges cannot be negative as they measure the level of government subsidy to the student loan system. If the future repayments are forecast to have a higher net present value than the initial loan outlay or the face value of the outstanding loans using the HM Treasury (HMT) discount rate then the RAB charge is required to use a discount rate equal to the rate intrinsic to the loan product, which is the rate that sets the RAB charge to 0%. See the quality and methodology information document accompanying this publication for further information. Without this rule, the figure produced by the student loan repayment model using the HMT discount rate is -26% for the masters RAB charge in 2022-23.
RAB charge is dependent on the proportion of Doctoral loan borrowers also taking out Master's loans. Doctoral RAB charges are not forecast for individual financial years, as the number of doctoral students with a prior Master's loan balance cannot be reliably estimated. However, a steady state Doctoral RAB charge is provided which takes into account the expectation that many borrowers will already have a Master's loan that they are repaying.
The decision was made to no longer forecast a RAB charge for Plan 1 loans as there are too few borrowers still receiving these to produce a reliable forecast.
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Table 4c: Forecast transfer proportion, by loan product
Filename
long_4c.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022-23 to 2027-28
Content
Transfer proportion in % by loan product
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
transfer_proportion
Transfer proportion
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
The transfer proportion is the portion of student loan outlay earmarked as government expenditure at loan inception in recognition that this portion of the outlay is unlikely to be repaid. See details of the partitioned loan approach for further information: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/methodologies/studentloansinthepublicsectorfinancesamethodologicalguide#partitioned-loan-transfer-approach
Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Table 5: Forecast percentage of borrowers expected to fully repay student loans, by loan product
Filename
long_5.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022/23 to 2023/24
Content
Forecast proportion of borrowers expected to fully repay student loans by loan product
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
proportion_expected_to_fully_repay
Proportion expected to fully repay loan
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
Includes all borrowers that repay their loan balance in full during their repayment term without any part of it being cancelled.
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Table 6a: Forecast number of student loan borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by loan product
Filename
long_6a.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022-23 to 2027-28
Content
Forecast number of student loan borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by loan product
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
borrowers_repayment
Number of borrowers liable to make repayments
borrowers_repayment_above_threshold
Number of borrowers liable to make repayments and earning above repayment threshold
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest 5,000 borrowers.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
Totals provided for Undergraduate Higher Education counts a loan borrower once even if they have more than one undergraduate loan product. For individuals plan type totals, they are counted once for each plan type they hold. Totals for plan 3 and Advanced Learner Loans double count borrowers and so they have been omitted.
Borrowers on part-time courses longer than 4 years may become liable to make repayments before the end of their course. However, they are assumed to earn below the repayment threshold until the April after their course end date, even if they become liable to make repayments before this point.
Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137
Earnings are forecast as equivalent annual earnings. As such figures include borrowers who would be earning above the repayment threshold for only part of the year and make a repayment as a result.
Only earnings that would be recorded by HMRC are included. This excludes any earnings overseas or earnings that are not declared to HMRC.
Earnings on entry into the labour market are expected to be lower than those mid-career, this will impact the number of borrowers earning above the repayment threshold for plans where the earliest borrowers have only recently become liable to make repayments.
The first Plan 2 borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2016-17. The earliest master's loan borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2019-20 and doctoral loan borrowers in 2020-21. For modelling purposes, it is assumed the first Plan 5 borrowers will become liable to repay the first April after finishing or withdrawing from their course.
Table 6b: Forecast of repayment thresholds, by plan type
Filename
long_6b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022-23 to 2027-28
Content
Forecast of repayment thresholds for Plan 1, Plan 2, Plan 3 and Plan 5 student loans
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
plan_type
Student loan plan type - Filter by student loan plan type
threshold_domestic
Repayment threshold
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Repayment thresholds are presented as multiples of £5 in line with the policy for calculating them.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
Plan 1 threshold increases each April based on RPI. The Plan 2 threshold remains at £27,295 until April 2025, increasing with RPI at that point and thereafter. The Plan 5 threshold is set at £25,000 until April 2027, increasing with RPI at that point and thereafter. The Plan 3 threshold has been set up to 2023-24 and will be reviewed for 2024-25. To enable future repayments to be forecast, it is assumed that the repayment threshold will increase in line with average earnings growth.
Table 7a: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs
Filename
long_7a.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022/23
Content
Sensitivity of RAB and stock charge to changes in RPI, average earnings and Bank of England rate
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
average_earnings_growth_-1pp
Average earnings growth 1pp lower each year
average_earnings_growth_+1pp
Average earnings growth 1pp higher each year
bank_of_england_base_rate_-1pp
Bank of England base rate 1pp lower each year
bank_of_england_base_rate_+1pp
Bank of England base rate 1pp higher each year
baseline_charge
Current forecast
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
rpi_-1pp
RPI 1pp lower each year
rpi_+1pp
RPI 1pp higher each year
stock_rab
Stock or RAB charge - Filter by stock charge (for Plan 1 loans) or RAB charge (for Plan 2 loans)
Footnotes
Coverage: Undergraduate borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
RPI changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2023-24 onwards and earnings growth and bank of England base rate change in financial year 2022-23 onwards.
Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137
This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB and stock charges are to various economic parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Table 7b: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges to key policy inputs
Filename
long_7b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022/23
Content
Sensitivity of RAB charges to changes in repayment thresholds, interest rate and repayment rate
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
baseline_charge
Current forecast
interest_rate_-1pp
Interest rate 1pp lower each year
interest_rate_+1pp
Interest rate 1pp higher each year
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
repayment_rate_-1pp
Repayment rate 1pp lower
repayment_rate_+1pp
Repayment rate 1pp higher
repayment_threshold_-£1000
Repayment threshold £1,000 lower in 2020-21
repayment_threshold_+£1000
Repayment threshold £1,000 higher in 2020-21
Footnotes
Coverage: Undergraduate borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
All changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2023-24.
In the repayment threshold scenarios the threshold is assumed to be £1,000 lower/higher in 2023-24 (i.e. £26,295 or £28,295 for Plan 2), before growing in line with average earnings growth in subsequent years in line with the current policy.
This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB charges are to various policy parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
Table 8: Projected long-term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product
Filename
long_8.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022-23 to 2071-72
Content
Long-term projections of student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal and real terms face value of ICR student loans split by loan product.
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Outstanding loan balance at the start of financial year (2022-23 prices £ billion)
plan_type
Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
repayments_£bn
Repayments (£ billion)
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
Where you see ‘low’ this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2023-24 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
Values in 2022-23 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Loan cancellations as a result of a borrower reaching the end of their repayment term are recorded as being at the start of the first financial year in which they were no longer liable to make repayments.
Forecasts up to 2027-28 are consistent with those elsewhere in this publication. Beyond that they have been projected forward using the following assumptions: • Average higher education student loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for RPIX from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report • Average Advanced Learner Loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report • Future entrants are assumed to have the same distribution of characteristics, loan amounts (uprated by RPIX) and earnings (uprated by OBR average earnings growth forecasts) as the 2027/28 entrants in the DfE student loan repayment and Advanced Learner Loans models • Loan borrower entrant numbers vary in line with ONS 2018-based principal population projections, weighted to the age profile of new entrants for each loan product • No changes to student loan policies are assumed past 2027-28, other than annually uprating maximum loan amounts, repayment thresholds and interest thresholds as appropriate
Figures have been rounded to the nearest £0.1 billion.
Table 9: Average loan balance at Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD), average loan balance at SRDD in FY2022-23 prices, average lifetime repayments in FY2022-23 prices, median years liable to repay, and proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms of undergraduate borrowers, by lifetime decile
Filename
long_9.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2022/23 to 2023/24
Content
Average loan balance at Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD), average loan balance at SRDD in FY2022-23 prices, average lifetime repayments in FY2022-23 prices, median years liable to repay, and proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms of undergraduate borrowers, by lifetime decile
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
average_lifetime_repayments_in_fy2223_prices
Average lifetime repayments (in FY22-23 prices)
average_loan_balance_at_srdd_in_fy2223_prices
Average loan balance at SRDD (in FY 22-23 prices)
average_loan_balance_at_srdd_nominal
Average loan balance at SRDD (nominal)
lifetime_earnings_decile
Lifetime Earnings Decile - Filter by lifetime earnings decile
median_years_liable_to_repay
Median years liable to repay
proportion_of_outlay_repaid_real_terms
Proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Monetary figures have been rounded to the nearest £100.
Averages are taken over loans (rather than over borrowers).
Plan 2 figures include full time and part time Plan 2 loans. Similarly Plan 5 figures include full time and part time Plan 5 loans.
These deciles do not align with earnings deciles for the population in general.
For higher earnings deciles the Plan 5 figures for 'proportion of outlay repaid in real terms' slightly exceed 100% even though interest is set in line with RPI. This is because the interest is set to RPI on a 1 year lag whereas discounting is based on unlagged RPI.
Loan borrowers normally become liable to begin repaying a loan at the start of the tax year (6 April) after graduating or otherwise leaving their course, this point is known as their Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD). After their SRDD, borrowers are required to make repayments if their income is above the repayment threshold.
Years liable to repay measures the time between SRDD and either loan write-off or the loan being fully repaid.
Lifetime earnings are considered as all earnings between SRDD and 50 years after SRDD, normalised using average earnings growth indices.
Values in 2022-23 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
Loan outlay, mean loan outlay per student, number of students and proportion of students by Household Residual Income band for 2020/21
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
hri_band
HRI Band (£ thousands) - Filter by HRI band
mean_outlay_per_student_£
Mean outlay per student
number_of_students
Number of students
percentage
Percentage
total_outlay_£000
Total outlay (£ thousands)
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as full-time undergraduate English domiciled students studying in the UK.
Total outlay is in thousands of pounds and is rounded to the nearest 100 thousand pounds, mean outlay is rounded to the nearest 100 pounds, and number of students to the nearest thousand.
Loan outlay includes tuition fee loan and maintenance loan.
These 2020/21 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data.
Individuals who chose not to reveal their household residual income may have an income over the maximum threshold.
Maintenance loans are means tested and calculated on a sliding scale of household residual income depending on students living location.
These figures are restricted to full-time English-domiciled students and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
The household residual income figure provided may not be from 2020/21 as students do not typically have to submit a new figure in each year of their study.
Part-time students have been excluded from the table due to a large proportion of borrowers with non-declared income. This is because only a small proportion of all part-time borrowers requested or received a maintenance loan in AY 2020/21, and borrowers don’t need to supply information about household income if they are requesting fee loan support only or maintenance loan support at the non-income assessed level.
Table 11: Average loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product
Filename
long_11.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2019/20 to 2027/28
Content
Forecast mean loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product across 2019/20 to 2027/28
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
actual_forecast
Actual or Forecast - Filter by actuals or forecast
loan_product
Loan product - Filter by loan product
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
mean_outlay_per_borrower_£
Mean average loan outlay per borrower per Academic Year
median_outlay_per_borrower_£
Median average loan outlay per borrower per Academic Year
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest £10.
Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in both totals.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2023-24 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
EU students and some part-time (https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products/part-time-undergraduate-education/part-time-maintenance-loan/eligibility/) students are not eligible for Maintenance Loans.
The 2019/20 and 2020/21 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data.
Table 12: Proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers, by length of loan borrowing
Filename
long_12.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22
Content
Forecast proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing, covering all borrowers starting between 2021/22 and 2027/28
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type
Plan type - Filter by plan type
proportion_borrowers_to_202728
Proportion of borrowers
years_of_funding
Number of years of funding - Filter by number of years of funding
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2023-24 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
Figures may not appear to sum due to rounding.
These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
Averages are over all student cohorts between academic years 2021/22 and 2027/28.
Years counted for years of funding do not need to be consecutive.
Table 13: Average total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student, by course start year and number of years of funding
Filename
long_13.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22 to 2027/28
Content
Forecast mean total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student, by course start year and number of years of funding across 2021/22 to 2027/28
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
mean_total_outlay_per_borrower_per_start_year
Mean average total loan amount per borrower per start year
median_total_outlay_per_borrower_per_start_year
Median average total loan amount per borrower per start year
plan_type
Plan type - Filter by plan type
years_of_funding
Number of years of funding - Filter by number of years of funding
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest £10.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2023-24 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
Averages are over the entire period of funding for a student starting in a particular academic year.
Years counted for years of funding do not need to be consecutive.
Table 14: Average length of funding per higher education undergraduate student
Filename
long_14.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2027/28
Content
Forecast mean number of years of funding per higher education undergraduate student for students starting between 2021/22 and 2027/28 by loan type
Variable names and descriptions
Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:
Variable name
Variable description
average_length_funding_since_202122
Average length of funding per borrower
loan_type
Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type
Plan type - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
Figures have been rounded to the nearest year.
The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2023-24 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
Average length of funding is mean average value.
Averages are over all student cohorts between 2021/22 and 2027/28.