Financial year 2021-22

Student loan forecasts for England

Data guidance

Published

Description

This document describes the data included in the ‘Student loan forecasts for England’ Official Statistics release’s underlying data files.

The methodology document should be referenced alongside this data. It provides information on the data sources, their coverage and quality as well as explaining methodology used in producing the data.

Coverage

This release provides the latest information on forecasts for higher education and further education student loans in England. These include forecasts of student entrants, student loan outlay and student loan repayments. Only income-contingent student loans issued to English domiciled students studying in the UK or EU domiciled students studying in England are included. The forecasts are based on models developed by the Department for Education (DfE), details of quality and methodology are provided in the methodology document accompanying this publication. 

This is the sixth in an annual series of statistics publications on student loan forecasts. It covers forecasts produced during the 2021-22 financial year, primarily covering the period 2021-22 to 2026-27.

File formats and conventions

The following symbol is used in the underlying data files as follows: 

     z      data not applicable

Data files

All data files associated with this releases are listed below with guidance on their content. To download any of these files, please visit our data catalogue.

Data for academic year key statistics

Filename
key_statistics_ay.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22 to 2026/27
Content

Data for key statistic headlines in academic years

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
average_total_outlay_per_borrower_per_start_yearFull-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2021/22 are expected to borrow on average
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
number_of_student_entrantsThe number of total undergraduate entrants expected to take out loans in 2026/27 is
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
proportion_expected_to_fully_repayOf full-time undergraduate higher education students starting in academic year 2021/22,
Footnotes
  1. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
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Data for financial year key statistics

Filename
key_statistics_fy.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021-22 to 2026-27
Content

Data for key statistic headlines in financial years

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_£mGovernment is expected to issue
outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_£bnThe loan book is forecast to reach
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
rab_chargeThe government is forecast to subsidise
Footnotes
  1. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
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Table 1: Historical student loan outlay and forecast student loan outlay, by loan product

Filename
long_1.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2012-13 to 2026-27
Content

Historical and forecast student loan outlay by loan product in £ millions.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
actual_forecastActual or Forecast - Filter by actuals or forecast
loan_outlay_£mLoan outlay
loan_productLoan product - Filter by loan product
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £5 million.
  2. Plan 5 loans will replace Plan 2 loans for new entrants to full-time and part-time undergraduate courses and new borrowers of Advanced Learner Loans from Academic Year 2023/24.
  3. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  4. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
  5. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
  6. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016 and doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
  7. Tuition fee cap has been frozen up to and including academic year 2024/25 in these forecasts.
  8. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  9. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2021-22 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
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Table 10: Higher education undergraduate student loan outlay by Household Residual Income

Filename
long_10.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2019/20
Content

Loan outlay, mean loan outlay per student, number of students and proportion of students by Household Residual Income band for 2019/20

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
hri_bandHRI Band (£ thousands) - Filter by HRI band
mean_outlay_per_student_£Mean outlay per student
number_of_studentsNumber of students
percentagePercentage
total_outlay_£000Total outlay (£ thousands)
Footnotes
  1. These figures are restricted to full-time English-domiciled students and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
  2. Total outlay is in thousands of pounds and is rounded to the nearest 100 thousand pounds, mean outlay is rounded to the nearest 100 pounds, and number of students to the nearest thousand.
  3. The household residual income figure provided may not be from 2019/20 as students do not typically have to submit a new figure in each year of their study.
  4. Maintenance loans are means tested and calculated on a sliding scale of household residual income depending on students living location. For example, for those studying in AY2019/20 in London living away from home the household residual income sliding scale goes from £25,000 to approximately £70,000.
  5. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as full-time undergraduate English domiciled students studying in the UK.
  6. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  7. Individuals who chose not to reveal their household residual income may have an income over the maximum threshold.
  8. Loan outlay includes tuition fee loan and maintenance loan.
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Table 11: Average loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product

Filename
long_11.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22 to 2026/27
Content

Forecast mean loan outlay per academic year per higher education undergraduate student, by loan product across 2021/22 to 2026/27

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_productLoan product - Filter by loan product
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_per_borrower_£Average loan outlay per borrower per Academic Year
plan_typePlan type - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. EU students and some part-time (https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products/part-time-undergraduate-education/part-time-maintenance-loan/eligibility/) students are not eligible for Maintenance Loans.
  2. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  3. Tuition fee cap has been frozen up to and including academic year 2024/25 in these forecasts.
  4. Average outlay per borrower is mean average value.
  5. Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in both totals.
  6. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £10
  7. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  8. These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
  9. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2021-22 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
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Table 12: Proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing

Filename
long_12.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22
Content

Forecast proportion of higher education undergraduate borrowers by length of loan borrowing, covering all borrowers starting between 2021/22 and 2026/27 

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type - Filter by plan type
proportion_borrowers_to_202627Proportion of borrowers
years_of_fundingNumber of years of funding - Filter by number of years of funding
Footnotes
  1. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  2. Figures may not appear to sum due to rounding.
  3. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  4. Averages are over all student cohorts between 2021/22 and 2026/27.
  5. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  6. These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
  7. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2021-22 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
  8. Years counted for years of funding do not need to be consecutive.
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Table 13: Average total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student by course start year and number of years of funding

Filename
long_13.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22 to 2026/27
Content

Forecast mean total loan outlay per higher education undergraduate student, by course start year and number of years of funding across 2021/22 to 2026/27

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
average_total_outlay_per_borrower_per_start_yearAverage total loan amount per borrower per start year
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type - Filter by plan type
years_of_fundingNumber of years of funding - Filter by number of years of funding
Footnotes
  1. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  2. Tuition fee cap has been frozen up to and including academic year 2024/25 in these forecasts.
  3. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £10
  4. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  5. Average total loan outlay per borrower is mean average value.
  6. These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
  7. Averages are over the entire period of funding for a student starting in a particular academic year.
  8. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2021-22 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
  9. Years counted for years of funding do not need to be consecutive.
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Table 14: Average length of funding per higher education undergraduate student

Filename
long_14.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2026/27
Content

Forecast mean number of years of funding per higher education undergraduate student for students starting between 2021/22 and 2026/27 by loan type

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
average_length_funding_since_202122Average length of funding per borrower
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  2. Averages are over all student cohorts between 2021/22 and 2026/27.
  3. Average length of funding is mean average value.
  4. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  5. Figures have been rounded to the nearest year.
  6. These figures are restricted to higher education undergraduate loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
  7. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2021-22 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
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Table 2a: Forecast number of students receiving loans, by loan product

Filename
long_2a.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2019/20 to 2026/27
Content

Forecast number of student receiving loans by loan product in thousands of students.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_productLoan product - Filter by loan product
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
number_of_students_thousandsNumber of students (thousands)
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1,000 borrowers.
  2. Plan 5 loans will replace Plan 2 loans for new entrants to full-time and part-time undergraduate courses and new borrowers of Advanced Learner Loans from Academic Year 2023/24.
  3. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  4. Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in both totals.
  5. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  6. 2019 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data.
  7. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2021-22 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
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Table 2b: Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans, by loan product​

Filename
long_2b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2019/20 to 2026/27
Content

Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans by loan product in thousands of student entrants.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_productLoan product - Filter by loan product
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
number_of_student_entrants_thousandsNumber of students entrants (thousands)
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1,000 borrowers.
  2. Coverage: Entrant borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
  3. Plan 5 loans will replace Plan 2 loans for new entrants to full-time and part-time undergraduate courses and new borrowers of Advanced Learner Loans from Academic Year 2023/24.
  4. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  5. Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in both totals.
  6. 2019 figures are provisional figures based on DfE analysis of SLC data.
  7. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2021-22 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
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Table 3: Forecast student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest accrued by loan borrowers and cancelled loans, by loan product

Filename
long_3.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021-22 to 2026-27
Content

Forecast of student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest and cancelled loans between 2021-22 and 2026-27 in £ million.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
cancelled_loans_£mCancelled loans
capitalised_interest_£mCapitalised interest
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_£mLoan outlay
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
repayments_£mRepayments
Footnotes
  1. No overpayments or refunds are modelled for borrowers that fully repay their loans; it is assumed that all borrowers finish making repayments once their loan balance reaches £0. In reality some borrowers overpay their loans, particularly if making repayments via HMRC, and are entitled to receive refunds.
  2. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
  3. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £5 million.
  4. Repayment forecasts assume that PAYE obligatory repayments are made in the same year in which the borrower had the income on which they are based. In reality some repayments made through PAYE will be received the following year, particularly repayments based on earnings in the final month of the year.
  5. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  6. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
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Table 4a: Forecast stock charge, by loan product

Filename
long_4a.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2018-19 to 2021-22
Content

Stock charge in % between 2018-19 and 2021-22 by loan product

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
stock_chargeStock charge
Footnotes
  1. Stock charges cannot be negative as they measure the level of government subsidy to the student loan system. If the future repayments are forecast to have a higher net present value than the initial loan outlay or the face value of the outstanding loans using the HM Treasury (HMT) discount rate then the stock charge is required to use a discount rate equal to the rate intrinsic to the loan product, which is the rate that sets the stock charge to 0%. See the quality and methodology information document accompanying this publication for further information. Without this rule, the figure produced by the student loan repayment model using the HMT discount rate is -12% for the master's stock charge in 2021-22.
  2. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
  4. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  5. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
  6. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
  7. The stock charge is the proportion of the outstanding loan balance at the start of the year that we expect not to be repaid when future repayments are valued in present terms.
  8. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
  9. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  10. 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21 stock charges have been provided from the previous release in June 2021. Since the last release, there have been revisions to the data, economic assumptions, policies and modelling methodology used within the student finance forecasting models. These changes will all contribute to varying degrees to any changes across time in our forecasts of figures such as the stock charge. This should be considered when comparing the 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21 figures to the remaining forecasts.
  11. Doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
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Table 4b: Forecast Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge, by loan product

Filename
long_4b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2018-19 to 2026-27
Content

RAB charge in % between 2018-19 and 2026-27 by loan product.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
rab_chargeRAB charge
Footnotes
  1. Doctoral loans are a loan product introduced in academic year 2018/19, on the same repayment plan as Master's loans which were introduced in 2016/17. The RAB charge is dependent on the proportion of Doctoral loan borrowers also taking out Master's loans. Doctoral RAB charges are not forecast for individual financial years, as the number of doctoral students with a prior Master's loan balance cannot be reliably estimated. However, a steady state Doctoral RAB charge is provided which takes into account the expectation that many borrowers will already have a Master's loan that they are repaying.
  2. The RAB charge is the proportion of loan outlay made during the year that we expect not to be repaid when future repayments are valued in present terms.
  3. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  4. RAB charges cannot be negative as they measure the level of government subsidy to the student loan system. If the future repayments are forecast to have a higher net present value than the initial loan outlay or the face value of the outstanding loans using the HM Treasury (HMT) discount rate then the RAB charge is required to use a discount rate equal to the rate intrinsic to the loan product, which is the rate that sets the RAB charge to 0%. See the quality and methodology information document accompanying this publication for further information. Without this rule, the figure produced by the student loan repayment model using the HMT discount rate is -23% for the masters RAB charge in 2021-22.
  5. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  6. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
  7. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
  8. 2018-19,2019-20 and 2020-21 RAB charges have been provided from the previous release in June 2021. Since the last release, there have been revisions to the data, economic assumptions, policies and modelling methodology used within the student finance forecasting models. These changes will all contribute to varying degrees to any changes across time in our forecasts of figures such as the RAB charge. This should be considered when comparing the 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21 figures to the remaining forecasts.
  9. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
  10. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  11. Doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
  12. The decision was made to no longer forecast a RAB charge for Plan 1 loans as there are too few borrowers still receiving these to produce a reliable forecast.
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Table 4c: Forecast transfer proportion, by loan product

Filename
long_4c.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2018-19 to 2026-27
Content

Transfer proportion in % between 2018-19 and 2026-27 by loan product.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
transfer_proportionTransfer proportion
Footnotes
  1. The transfer proportion is the portion of student loan outlay earmarked as government expenditure at loan inception in recognition that this portion of the outlay is unlikely to be repaid. See details of the partitioned loan approach for further information: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/methodologies/studentloansinthepublicsectorfinancesamethodologicalguide#partitioned-loan-transfer-approach
  2. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
  4. 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21 transfer proportions have been provided from the previous release in June 2021. Since this time, there have been revisions to the data, economic assumptions, policies and modelling methodology used within the student finance forecasting models. This should be considered when comparing the 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21 figures to the remaining forecasts.
  5. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  6. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
  7. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
  8. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
  9. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  10. Doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
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Table 5: Forecast percentage of borrowers expected to fully repay student loans, by loan product

Filename
long_5.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22 to 2023/24
Content

Forecast proportion of borrowers in 2021-22 cohort expected to fully repay student loans by loan product.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
proportion_expected_to_fully_repayProportion expected to fully repay loan
Footnotes
  1. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  2. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
  3. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
  4. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 5%.
  5. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
  6. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  7. Includes all borrowers that repay their loan balance in full during their repayment term without any part of it being cancelled.
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Table 6a: Forecast number of borrowers liable to make repayments and number of those earning above repayment threshold

Filename
long_6a.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021-22 to 2026-27
Content

Forecast number of student loan borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by loan product

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
borrowers_repaymentNumber of borrowers liable to make repayments
borrowers_repayment_above_thresholdNumber of borrowers liable to make repayments and earning above repayment threshold
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
Footnotes
  1. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 5,000 borrowers.
  2. Borrowers with more than one loan product will be recorded against each one separately if they are liable to make repayments against more than one.
  3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
  4. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  5. Only earnings that would be recorded by HMRC are included. This excludes any earnings overseas or earnings that are not declared to HMRC.
  6. Earnings on entry into the labour market are expected to be lower than those mid-career, this will impact the number of borrowers earning above the repayment threshold for plans where the earliest borrowers have only recently become liable to make repayments.
  7. Earnings are forecast as equivalent annual earnings. As such figures include borrowers who would be earning above the repayment threshold for only part of the year and make a repayment as a result.
  8. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  9. The first Plan 2 borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2016-17. The earliest master's loan borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2019-20 and doctoral loan borrowers in 2020-21. For modelling purposes it is assumed the first Plan 5 borrowers will become liable to repay the first April after finishing or withdrawing from their course.
  10. Borrowers on part-time courses longer than 4 years may become liable to make repayments before the end of their course. However they are assumed to earn below the repayment threshold until the April after their course end date, even if they become liable to make repayments before this point.
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Table 6b: Forecast repayment threshold, by plan type

Filename
long_6b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021-22 to 2026-27
Content

Forecast of repayment thresholds for Plan 1, Plan 2, Plan 3 and Plan 5 student loans.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
plan_typeStudent loan plan type - Filter by student loan plan type
threshold_domesticRepayment threshold
Footnotes
  1. Repayment thresholds are presented as multiples of £5 in line with the policy for calculating them.
  2. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  3. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  4. Repayment thresholds have already been set up to 2021-22 for Plan 3. Plan 1 threshold increases each April based on RPI. The Plan 2 threshold remains at £27,295 until April 2025, increasing with RPI at that point and thereafter. The Plan 5 threshold is set at £25,000 until April 2027, increasing with RPI at that point and thereafter. The Plan 3 threshold will be reviewed for 2023-24, so to enable future repayments to be forecast, for modelling purposes it is assumed that it will increase in line with average earnings growth.
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Table 7a: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs​

Filename
long_7a.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22
Content

Sensitivity of RAB and stock charge to changes in RPI, average earnings and Bank of England rate.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
average_earnings_growth_-1ppAverage earnings growth 1pp lower each year
average_earnings_growth_+1ppAverage earnings growth 1pp higher each year
bank_of_england_base_rate_-1ppBank of England base rate 1pp lower each year
bank_of_england_base_rate_+1ppBank of England base rate 1pp higher each year
baseline_chargeCurrent forecast
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
rpi_-1ppRPI 1pp lower each year
rpi_+1ppRPI 1pp higher each year
stock_rabStock or RAB charge - Filter by stock charge (for Plan 1 loans) or RAB charge (for Plan 2 loans)
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: Undergraduate borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
  2. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  3. The ALL model is designed such that the repayment rate and interest charge are cohort based rather than applying to everyone in the actual year. So we don't see any impact in FY21-22 for either of these.
  4. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
  5. This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB and stock charges are to various economic parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
  6. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  7. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
  8. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
  9. Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
  10. All changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2022-23.
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Table 7b: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key policy inputs

Filename
long_7b.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22
Content

Sensitivity of RAB charges to changes in repayment thresholds, interest rate and repayment rate.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
baseline_chargeCurrent forecast
interest_rate_-1ppInterest rate 1pp lower each year
interest_rate_+1ppInterest rate 1pp higher each year
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
repayment_rate_-1ppRepayment rate 1pp lower
repayment_rate_+1ppRepayment rate 1pp higher
repayment_threshold_-£1000Repayment threshold £1,000 lower in 2020-21
repayment_threshold_+£1000Repayment threshold £1,000 higher in 2020-21
Footnotes
  1. Coverage: Undergraduate borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
  2. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.
  3. The ALL model is designed such that the repayment rate and interest charge are cohort based rather than applying to everyone in the actual year. So we don't see any impact in FY21-22 for either of these.
  4. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  5. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
  6. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
  7. In the repayment threshold scenarios the threshold is assumed to be £1,000 lower/higher in 2022-23 (i.e. £26,295 or £28,295 for Plan 2), before growing in line with average earnings growth in subsequent years in line with the current policy.
  8. Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
  9. All changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2022-23.
  10. This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB and stock charges are to various policy parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
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Table 8: Projected long-term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product

Filename
long_8_corrected.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021-22 to 2070-71
Content

Long-term projections of student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, interest rates, nominal and real terms face value of ICR student loans split by loan product.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
cancelled_loans_£bnCancelled loans (£ billion)
capitalised_interest_£bnCapitalised interest (£ billion)
interest_ratesInterest rates
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_£bnLoan outlay (£ billion)
outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_£bnOutstanding loan balance at the start of financial year (£ billion)
outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_202122_prices_£bnOutstanding loan balance at the start of financial year (2021-22 prices £ billion)
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type
repayments_£bnRepayments (£ billion)
Footnotes
  1. Forecasts up to 2026-27 are consistent with those elsewhere in this publication. Beyond that they have been projected forward using the following assumptions: • Average higher education student loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for RPIX from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report • Average Advanced Learner Loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report • Future entrants are assumed to have the same distribution of characteristics, loan amounts (uprated by RPIX) and earnings (uprated by OBR average earnings growth forecasts) as the 2026/27 entrants in the DfE student loan repayment and Advanced Learner Loans models • Loan borrower entrant numbers vary in line with ONS 2018-based principal population projections, weighted to the age profile of new entrants for each loan product • No changes to student loan policies are assumed past 2026-27, other than annually uprating maximum loan amounts, repayment thresholds and interest thresholds as appropriate
  2. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
  3. Plan 5 loans will replace Plan 2 loans for new entrants to full-time and part-time undergraduate courses and new borrowers of Advanced Learner Loans from Academic Year 2023/24.
  4. Values in 2021-22 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
  5. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  6. Interest rates are presented as weighted averages, where borrowers with larger loan balances have higher weightings. For Plan 2 interest rates may vary between RPI and RPI + 3% depending on income. For Plans 1, 3 and 5 interest rates are not dependent on income.
  7. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
  8. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
  9. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
  10. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £0.1 billion.
  11. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  12. Loan cancellations as a result of a borrower reaching the end of their repayment term are recorded as being at the start of the first financial year in which they were no longer liable to make repayments.
  13. Doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
  14. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2021-22 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
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Table 9: Loan balance at Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD), loan balance at SRDD in FY2021-22 prices, lifetime repayments in FY2021-22 prices, median years liable to repay, and proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms of undergraduate borrowers, by lifetime earnings decile

Filename
long_9.csv
Geographic levels
National
Time period
2021/22 to 2023/24
Content

Average loan balance at Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD), average loan balance at SRDD in FY2021-22 prices, average lifetime repayments in FY2021-22 prices, median years liable to repay, and proportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms of undergraduate borrowers, by lifetime decile

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable nameVariable description
average_lifetime_repayments_in_fy2122_pricesAverage lifetime repayments (in FY21-22 prices)
average_loan_balance_at_srdd_in_fy2122_pricesAverage loan balance at SRDD (in FY 21-22 prices)
average_loan_balance_at_srdd_nominalAverage loan balance at SRDD (nominal)
lifetime_earnings_decileLifetime Earnings Decile - Filter by lifetime earnings decile
median_years_liable_to_repayMedian years liable to repay
proportion_of_outlay_repaid_real_termsProportion of loan outlay repaid in real terms
Footnotes
  1. Lifetime earnings are considered as all earnings between SRDD and 50 years after SRDD, normalised using average earnings growth indices.
  2. Years liable to repay measures the time between SRDD and either loan write-off or the loan being fully repaid
  3. Values in 2021-22 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
  4. Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
  5. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from August 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
  6. Loan borrowers normally becomes liable to begin repaying a loan at the start of the tax year (6 April) after graduating or otherwise leaving their course, this point is known as their Statutory Repayment Due Date (SRDD). After their SRDD, borrowers are required to make repayments if their income is above the repayment threshold.
  7. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
  8. Plan 2 figures include full time and part time Plan 2 loans. Similarly Plan 5 figures include full time and part time Plan 5 loans.
  9. Averages are taken over loans (rather than over borrowers)
  10. For higher earnings deciles the Plan 5 figures for 'proportion of outlay repaid in real terms' slightly exceed 100% even though interest is set in line with RPI since the interest is set to RPI on a 1 year lag whereas discounting is based on unlagged RPI.
  11. Monetary figures have been rounded to the nearest £100.
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