Financial year 2020-21

Student loan forecasts for England

Data guidance

Published 24 June 2021

Description

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Coverage

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File formats and conventions

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Data files

All data files associated with this releases are listed below with guidance on their content. To download any of these files, please visit our data catalogue.

Table 1: Historical student loan outlay and forecast student loan outlay, by loan product

• Filename: long_1.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2012-13 to 2025-26
• Content:

  Historical and forecast student loan outlay by loan product in £ millions.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
actual_forecast	Actual or Forecast - Filter by actuals or forecast
loan_outlay_£m	Loan outlay
loan_product	Loan product - Filter by loan product
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type

Footnotes

1. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from September 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
2. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
3. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £5 million.
4. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
5. Tuition fee cap has been frozen up to and including academic year 2022/23 in these forecasts
6. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016 and doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
7. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education, therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2020-21 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.

Table 10: Loan outlay by Household Residual Income

• Filename: long_10_v3.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2018/19
• Content:

  Loan outlay, average loan outlay per student, number of students and proportion of students by Household Residual Income band.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
hri_band	HRI Band (£ thousands) - Filter by HRI band
mean_outlay_per_student_£	Mean outlay per student
number_of_students	Number of students
percentage	Percentage
total_outlay_£	Total outlay

Footnotes

1. Loan outlay includes tuition fee loan and maintenance loan.
2. These figures are restricted to full-time English-domiciled students and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
3. Total outlay is rounded to the nearest thousands, Mean to the nearest 10 pounds, and number of students to the nearest thousands.
4. The HRI figure provided may not be from 2018/19 as students do not typically have to submit a new figure in each year of their study.
5. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans or grants as Full Time English domiciled students studying in the UK.
6. Maintenance loans are means tested and calculated on a sliding scale from a household residual income of £25,000 to £65,000
7. Individuals who chose not to reveal their household residual income may have an income over the maximum threshold

Table 11: Average loan outlay per student, by loan type

• Filename: long_11.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2018/19 to 2025/26
• Content:

  Actual and forecast average loan outlay per student in £.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
loan_product	Loan product - Filter by loan product
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_per_borrower_£	Average loan outlay per borrower per Academic Year
plan_type	Plan type - Filter by plan type

Footnotes

1. Borrowers receiving either a fee or maintenance or both loans are included in both totals.
2. Figures for 2019/20 are provisional and will be updated in SLC's November 2021 publication.
3. EU students and some part-time (https://www.practitioners.slc.co.uk/products/part-time-undergraduate-education/part-time-maintenance-loan/eligibility/) students are not eligible for Maintenance Loans.
4. These figures are restricted to Higher education loans and do not include Advanced Learner Loans.
5. Historic statistics on students receiving loans is published by Student Loans Company in the Student Support for Higher Education in England publication for 2019/20.
6. Tuition fee cap has been frozen up to and including academic year 2022/23 in these forecasts
7. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as full time EU domiciled students studying in England.
8. The outlay model forecasts only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education, therefore no Plan 1 students are forecasted outlay from 2020/21 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.

Table 2a: Forecast number of students receiving loans, by loan product

• Filename: long_2a_v3.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2020/21 to 2025/26
• Content:

  Forecast number of student receiving loans by loan product in thousands of students.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
loan_product	Loan product - Filter by loan product
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
number_of_students_thousands	Number of students (thousands)
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type

Footnotes

1. Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in both totals.
2. Historic statistics on students receiving loans is published by Student Loans Company in the Student Support for Higher Education in England publication for 2019/20.
3. The number of students receiving fee or maintenance loans.
4. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
5. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1,000 borrowers.
6. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education, therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2020-21 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.

Table 2b: Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans, by loan product

• Filename: long_2b_v2.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2020/21 to 2025/26
• Content:

  Forecast number of student entrants receiving loans by loan product in thousands of student entrants.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
loan_product	Loan product - Filter by loan product
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
number_of_student_entrants_thousands	Number of students entrants (thousands)
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type

Footnotes

1. The number of student entrants receiving fee or maintenance loans.
2. Borrowers receiving both fee and maintenance loans for their course are included in both totals.
3. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1,000 borrowers.
4. Coverage: Entrant borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
5. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education, therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2020-21 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.

Table 3: Student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest accrued by loan borrowers and cancelled loans, by loan product

• Filename: long_3.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2020-21 to 2025-26
• Content:

  Forecast of student loan outlay, repayments capitalised interest and cancelled loans between 2020-21 and 2025-26 in £ million.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
cancelled_loans_£m	Cancelled loans
capitalised_interest_£m	Capitalised interest
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_£m	Loan outlay
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
repayments_£m	Repayments

Footnotes

1. No overpayments or refunds are modelled for borrowers that fully repay their loans; it is assumed that all borrowers finish making repayments once their loan balance reaches £0. In reality some borrowers overpay their loans, particularly if making repayments via HMRC, and are entitled to receive refunds.
2. Repayment forecasts assume that obligatory repayments are made in the same year in which the borrower had the income on which they are based. In reality HMRC receives repayments made via self assessment forms the following year, and some repayments made through PAYE will be received the following year, particularly repayments based on earnings in the final month of the year.
3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
4. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £5 million.
5. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England

Table 4a: Stock charge, by loan product

• Filename: long_4a.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2018-19 to 2020-21
• Content:

  Stock charge in % between 2018-19 and 2020-21 by loan product.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
stock_charge	Stock charge

Footnotes

1. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
2. Doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
3. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
4. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
5. The stock charge is the proportion of the outstanding loan balance at the start of the year that we expect not to be repaid when future repayments are valued in present terms.
6. Stock charges cannot be negative as they measure the level of government subsidy to the student loan system. If the future repayments are forecast to have a higher net present value than the initial loan outlay or the face value of the outstanding loans using the HM Treasury (HMT) discount rate then the stock charge is required to use a discount rate equal to the rate intrinsic to the loan product, which is the rate that sets the stock charge to 0%. See the quality and methodology information document accompanying this publication for further information. Without this rule, the figure produced by the student loan repayment model using the HMT discount rate is -3% for the master's stock charge in 2020-21.
7. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from September 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
8. 2018-19 and 2019-20 stock charges have been provided from the previous release in September 2020. Since the last release, there have been revisions to the data, economic assumptions, policies and modelling methodology used within the student finance forecasting models. These changes will all contribute to varying degrees to any changes across time in our forecasts of figures such as tthe stock charge. This should be considered when comparing the 2018-19 and 2019-20 figures to the remaining forecasts.
9. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
10. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.

Table 4b: Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charge by loan product

• Filename: long_4b.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2018-19 to 2025-26
• Content:

  RAB charge in % between 2018-19 and 2025-26 by loan product.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
rab_charge	RAB charge

Footnotes

1. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
2. The RAB charge is the proportion of loan outlay made during the year that we expect not to be repaid when future repayments are valued in present terms.
3. Doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
4. 2018-19 and 2019-20 RAB charges have been provided from the previous release in September 2020. Since the last release, there have been revisions to the data, economic assumptions, policies and modelling methodology used within the student finance forecasting models. These changes will all contribute to varying degrees to any changes across time in our forecasts of figures such as the RAB charge. This should be considered when comparing the 2018-19 and 2019-20 figures to the remaining forecasts.
5. Doctoral loans are a new loan product introduced in academic year 2018/19, on the same repayment plan as Master's loans which were introduced in 2016/17. The RAB charge is dependent on the proportion of Doctoral loan borrowers also taking out Master's loans. Doctoral RAB charges are not forecast for individual financial years, as the number of doctoral students with a prior Master's loan balance cannot be reliably estimated. However, a steady state Doctoral RAB charge is provided which takes into account the expectation that many borrowers will already have a Master's loan that they are repaying.
6. The decision was made to no longer forecast a RAB charge for Plan 1 loans as there are too few borrowers still receiving these to produce a reliable forecast.
7. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
8. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from September 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
9. RAB charges cannot be negative as they measure the level of government subsidy to the student loan system. If the future repayments are forecast to have a higher net present value than the initial loan outlay or the face value of the outstanding loans using the HM Treasury (HMT) discount rate then the RAB charge is required to use a discount rate equal to the rate intrinsic to the loan product, which is the rate that sets the RAB charge to 0%. See the quality and methodology information document accompanying this publication for further information. Without this rule, the figure produced by the student loan repayment model using the HMT discount rate is -4% for the RAB charge in 2020-21.
10. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
11. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.

Table 4c: Transfer proportion, by loan product

• Filename: long_4c.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2018-19 to 2025-26
• Content:

  Transfer proportion in % between 2018-19 and 2025-26 by loan product.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
transfer_proportion	Transfer proportion

Footnotes

1. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
2. Doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
3. 2018-19 and 2019-20 transfer proportions have been provided from the previous release in September 2020. Since this time, there have been revisions to the data, economic assumptions, policies and modelling methodology used within the student finance forecasting models. This should be considered when comparing the 2018-19 and 2019-20 figures to the remaining forecasts.
4. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
5. The transfer proportion is the portion of student loan outlay earmarked as government expenditure at loan inception in recognition that this portion of the outlay is unlikely to be repaid. See details of the partitioned loan approach for further information: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/methodologies/studentloansinthepublicsectorfinancesamethodologicalguide#partitioned-loan-transfer-approach
6. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
7. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from September 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
8. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
9. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.

Table 5: Forecast percentage of borrowers (2020-21 entrants) expected to fully repay student loans, by loan product

• Filename: long_5.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2020/21
• Content:

  Forecast proportion of borrowers in 2020-21 cohort expected to fully repay student loans by loan product.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
proportion_expected_to_fully_repay	Proportion expected to fully repay loan

Footnotes

1. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
2. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 5%.
3. Includes all borrowers that repay their loan balance in full during their repayment term without any part of it being cancelled.
4. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
5. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from September 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
6. Loan borrowers are assumed to not take out any further loans of the same plan type beyond their current course, but may have a loan of the same plan type from a previous course.
7. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.

Table 6a: Number of student loan borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by loan product

• Filename: long_6a.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2020-21 to 2025-26
• Content:

  Forecast number of student loan borrowers liable to repay and number earning above repayment threshold, by loan product

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
borrowers_repayment	Number of borrowers liable to make repayments
borrowers_repayment_above_threshold	Number of borrowers liable to make repayments and earning above repayment threshold
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type

Footnotes

1. The first Plan 2 borrowers became liable to make repayments in 2016-17. The earliest master's loan borrowers will become liable to make repayments in 2019-20 and doctoral loan borrowers in 2020-21.
2. Borrowers with more than one loan product will be recorded against each one separately if they are liable to make repayments against more than one.
3. Only earnings that would be recorded by HMRC are included. This excludes any earnings overseas or earnings that are not declared to HMRC.
4. Earnings are forecast as equivalent annual earnings. As such figures include borrowers who would be earning above the repayment threshold for only part of the year and make a repayment as a result.
5. Borrowers on part-time courses longer than 4 years may become liable to make repayments before the end of their course. However they are assumed to earn below the repayment threshold until the April after their course end date, even if they become liable to make repayments before this point.
6. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
7. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
8. Earnings on entry into the labour market are expected to be lower than those mid-career, this will impact the number of borrowers earning above the repayment threshold for plans where the earliest borrowers have only recently become liable to make repayments.
9. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 5,000 borrowers.

Table 6b: Repayment thresholds, by loan product

• Filename: long_6b.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2020-21 to 2025-26
• Content:

  Forecast of repayment thresholds for Plan 1, Plan 2 and Plan 3 student loans.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
repayment_threshold_£	Repayment threshold

Footnotes

1. Repayment thresholds have already been set up to 2021-22 for Plan 3. Plan 1 threshold is assumed to increase based on RPI and the Plan 2 threshold based on average earnings growth, in line with the current policies. The Plan 3 threshold will be reviewed for 2022-23, so to enable future repayments to be forecast, for modelling purposes it is assumed that it will also increase in line with average earnings growth.
2. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England
3. Repayment thresholds are presented as multiples of £5 in line with the policy for calculating them.

Table 7a: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges and stock charges to key economic inputs

• Filename: long_7a.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2020/21
• Content:

  Sensitivity of RAB and stock charge to changes in RPI, average earnings and Bank of England rate.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
average_earnings_growth_-1pp	Average earnings growth 1pp lower each year
average_earnings_growth_+1pp	Average earnings growth 1pp higher each year
bank_of_england_base_rate_-1pp	Bank of England base rate 1pp lower each year
bank_of_england_base_rate_+1pp	Bank of England base rate 1pp higher each year
baseline_charge	Current forecast
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
rpi_-1pp	RPI 1pp lower each year
rpi_+1pp	RPI 1pp higher each year
stock_rab	Stock or RAB charge - Filter by stock charge (for Plan 1 loans) or RAB charge (for Plan 2 loans)

Footnotes

1. All changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2020-21.
2. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
3. This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB and stock charges are to various economic parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
4. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
5. Coverage: Higher education borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
6. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from September 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
7. Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
8. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
9. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.

Table 7b: Sensitivity of Resource Accounting and Budgeting (RAB) charges to key policy inputs

• Filename: long_7b_v2.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2020/21
• Content:

  Sensitivity of RAB charges to changes in repayment thresholds, interest rate and repayment rate.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
baseline_charge	Current forecast
interest_rate_-1pp	Interest rate 1pp lower each year
interest_rate_+1pp	Interest rate 1pp higher each year
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
repayment_rate_-1pp	Repayment rate 1pp lower
repayment_rate_+1pp	Repayment rate 1pp higher
repayment_threshold_-£1000	Repayment threshold £1,000 lower in 2020-21
repayment_threshold_+£1000	Repayment threshold £1,000 higher in 2020-21

Footnotes

1. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
2. All changes are assumed to begin in financial year 2020-21, other than the repayment threshold and repayment rate which begin in 2021-22 since no borrowers affecting the 2020-21 RAB charge will be in repayment until at least April 2021.
3. Coverage: Higher education borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
4. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from September 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
5. In the repayment threshold scenarios the threshold is assumed to be £1,000 lower/higher in 2021-22 (i.e. £26,295 or £28,295 for Plan 2), before growing in line with average earnings growth in subsequent years in line with the current policy.
6. Differences in the impacts between different loan products in the same scenario may be due to differences in the loan policy or differences in the characteristics of the borrowers with each type of loan.
7. This table demonstrates how sensitive the RAB and stock charges are to various policy parameters. The size of the impacts presented here only applies to the figures shown and the results are not linear; that is if the size of the variation was doubled then the impact would not necessarily be double that shown.
8. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
9. Figures have been rounded to the nearest 1%.

Table 8: Projected long-term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product

• Filename: long_8_v2.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2020-21 to 2070-71
• Content:

  Long-term projections of student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, interest rates, nominal and real terms face value of ICR student loans split by loan product.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
cancelled_loans_£bn	Cancelled loans (£ billion)
capitalised_interest_£bn	Capitalised interest (£ billion)
interest_rates	Interest rates
loan_type	Loan type - Filter by loan type
outlay_£bn	Loan outlay (£ billion)
outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_£bn	Outstanding loan balance at the start of financial year (£ billion)
outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_202021_prices_£bn	Outstanding loan balance at the start of financial year (2020-21 prices £ billion)
plan_type	Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type
repayments_£bn	Repayments (£ billion)

Footnotes

1. Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
2. Doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
3. Loan cancellations as a result of a borrower reaching the end of their repayment term are recorded as being at the end of the final financial year in which they were liable to make repayments.
4. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education, therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecast from academic year 2020/21 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
5. Forecasts up to 2025-26 are consistent with those elsewhere in this publication. Beyond that they have been projected forward using the following assumptions: • Average higher education student loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for RPIX from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook • Average Advanced Learner Loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for CPI from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook • Future entrants are assumed to have the same distribution of characteristics, loan amounts (uprated by RPIX) and earnings (uprated by OBR average earnings growth forecasts) as the 2025/26 entrants in the DfE student loan repayment and Advanced Learner Loans models • Loan borrower entrant numbers vary in line with ONS 2016-based principal population projections, weighted to the age profile of new entrants for each loan product • No changes to student loan policies are assumed, other than annually uprating maximum loan amounts, repayment thresholds and interest thresholds as appropriate
6. Values in 2020-21 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
7. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
8. Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from September 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
9. Interest rates are presented as weighted averages, where borrowers with larger loan balances have higher weightings. For Plan 2 interest rates may vary between RPI and RPI + 3% depending on income. For Plans 1 and 3 interest rates are not dependent on income.
10. Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
11. Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
12. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £0.1 billion.

Table 9a: Historical and forecast number of full-time higher education undergraduate course entrants, by domicile

• Filename: table_9a.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2015/16 to 2025/26
• Content:

  Historical and forecast number of full-time higher education undergraduate course entrants by domicile.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
actual_forecast	Actual or forecast - Filter by actual or forecast
category	Category - Filter by entrants category
course	Course - Filter by course
domicile	Domicile - Filter by domicile
entrants	Number of entrants

Footnotes

1. Figures have been rounded to the closest 1,000 students so may not sum to totals.
2. Although 2019/20 entrants are outturn, 2019/20 loan-eligible entrants are partially forecast based on historic proportions of entrants eligible for tuition fee loans.
3. Coverage: Full-time undergraduate England-domiciled entrants to UK providers and EU-domiciled entrants to providers in England. Included provider types are specifically: higher education institutions (HEIs) and designated alternative providers (APs) registered with the Office for Students (OfS) as an Approved (fee cap) provider; HEIs in the devolved administrations. Excluded provider types in England include further education colleges (FECs) and former non-designated APs registered as Approved (fee cap), as well as Approved providers. Excluded provider types in the devolved administrations include FECs and APs.
4. Since 2017/18, nursing, midwifery and allied health profession (AHP) entrants have been part of the main student support system, making them eligible to receive tuition fee loans.
5. Fee loan-eligible entrants are a subset of those student entrants eligible for tuition fee loans from Student Finance England.

Table 9b: Historical and forecast percentage change (relative to previous academic year) of full-time higher education undergraduate course entrants, by domicile

• Filename: table_9b_v2.csv
• Geographic levels: National
• Time period: 2015/16 to 2025/26
• Content:

  Historical and forecast percentage change of full-time higher education undergraduate course entrants, by domicile.

Variable names and descriptions

Variable names and descriptions for this file are provided below:

Variable name	Variable description
category	Category - Filter by entrants category
course	Course - Filter by course
domicile	Domicile - Filter by domicile
percentage_change	Percentage change
percentage_change_since_2019	Percentage change since 2019

Footnotes

1. Although 2019/20 entrants are outturn, 2019/20 loan-eligible entrants are partially forecast based on historic proportions of entrants eligible for tuition fee loans.
2. Coverage: Full-time undergraduate England-domiciled entrants to UK providers and EU-domiciled entrants to providers in England. Included provider types are specifically: higher education institutions (HEIs) and designated alternative providers (APs) registered with the Office for Students (OfS) as an Approved (fee cap) provider; HEIs in the devolved administrations. Excluded provider types in England include further education colleges (FECs) and former non-designated APs registered as Approved (fee cap), as well as Approved providers. Excluded provider types in the devolved administrations include FECs and APs.
3. Growth rates have been calculated on unrounded figures and are rounded to the nearest decimal place.
4. Since 2017/18, nursing, midwifery and allied health profession (AHP) entrants have been part of the main student support system, making them eligible to receive tuition fee loans.
5. Fee loan-eligible entrants are a subset of those student entrants eligible for tuition fee loans from Student Finance England.