Academic year 2021/22

Longer term destinations

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Introduction

Destination measures provide information on the success of schools and colleges in helping young people continue in education, apprenticeships or employment. 

These official statistics show the number of students that have sustained at least 6 months of education, apprenticeship or employment activity in their first, third and fifth year after finishing key stage 4.

The release provides information at national, regional, local authority and institution levels with breakdowns by student characteristics. 


Headline facts and figures - 2021/22

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What are destination measures?

What are destination measures?

Destination measures provide information on the success of schools and colleges in helping young people continue in education, apprenticeships or employment. 

Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on destination measures

Destinations in academic years between 2019/20 and 2021/22 were affected by disruption caused by the pandemic. For longer term destinations data published this year, this applies to the third year after finishing key stage 4 for 2016/17, 2017/18 and 2018/19 leavers and the fifth year after finishing key stage 4 for 2016/17 leavers. 

As this publication looks at data in the first two terms of an academic year, data from the 2019/20 academic year was mostly unaffected by the pandemic. The exception to this methodology is data on students progressing to apprenticeships, who need to sustain an apprenticeship for 6 months at any time in the academic year.

For the 2020/21 academic year, many employers and apprenticeship providers took on fewer individuals during the pandemic and so we saw lower sustained employment and apprenticeship destinations. In the 2021/22 academic year, we generally see an increase in both these measures and a move back to pre-2020 levels.

Longer term destinations focus on destination activity 1, 3 and 5 years after completing key stage 4.

This differs from the standard measures which focus on activity in the first year after completing key stage 4 (for example GCSEs) or 16 to 18 study (for example A levels). 

The most recent data focuses on students who left key stage 4 in the 2016/17 academic year and identifies their main activity in 2017/18 (when they would be age 16 or 17), 2019/20 (age 18 or 19) and 2021/22 (age 20 or 21) academic years.

This publication also contains data on students who left key stage 4 in the 2017 /18 and 2018/19 academic years and identifies their main activity in their first and third year after leaving key stage 4. For 2017/18 leavers this is the academic years 2018/19 and 2020/21. For 2018/19 leavers this is the academic years 2019/20 and 2021/22. To see more details on these cohorts, see the section labelled “Later cohorts”.

What is a ‘sustained’ destination? 

To be counted in a destination, young people have to be recorded as having sustained participation for a 6 month period in the destination year. How this rule is applied varies depending on the type of activity measured. 

Please see the ‘constructing the measure’ section of the methodology for full details on destination definitions.

This six-month requirement encourages schools and colleges to support and prepare their students to progress to a destination that offers sustained engagement.

In this longer term destinations measure, a sustained destination in the fifth year requires six months of activity in the fifth year only, not sustained activity throughout the five-year period (and likewise for destinations in the third year).

Change across the years

Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on destination measures

This publication focuses on destinations of students 1, 3 and 5 years after leaving key stage 4 in 2016/17. Therefore, activity is monitored in the first two terms of the 2017/18, 2019/20 and 2021/22 academic years. Academic years 2019/20 (year 3) and 2021/22 (year 5) were affected by disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. 

In 2019/20, we see little effect in overall sustained destinations, as the first two terms were mostly unaffected by the pandemic. However, as methodology for apprenticeships looks for 6 months sustained activity across the academic year, sustained apprenticeship destinations does decrease.

In the 2021/22 academic year, we generally see an increase in sustained destinations back to pre-pandemic levels, following a decrease in sustained destinations for the previous year's cohort. This is due to many employers and apprenticeship providers taking on fewer individuals in 2020/21.

In 2016/17, sustained destinations in year 5 increased by 2.9 percentage points. This followed a 1.5 percentage point decrease in the previous academic year

The proportion of students who sustained an overall destination one year after finishing key stage 4 was 94.2%, up by 0.1 percentage points in comparison to the previous year's cohort.

The proportion of students who sustained an overall destination three years after finishing key stage 4 was 81.9%, down by 0.5 percentage points in comparison to the previous year's cohort.

82.4% of students had an overall sustained destination five years after finishing key stage 4, up by 2.9 percentage points in comparison to the previous year's cohort.

There was little change in sustained destinations after one and three years between cohorts that finished key stage 4 in academic years 2013/14 to 2016/17. Sustained destinations for 2016/17 leavers after 5 years returned to pre-pandemic levels after a decrease in the 2020/21 academic year driven by decreases in work and apprenticeship destinations.  

This year also sees the first time that sustained destinations in the fifth year after finishing key stage 4 are above those in the third. However this is likely to be at least partly due to disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Pupil characteristics

When is a pupil considered disadvantaged?

Pupils are defined as disadvantaged if they were eligible for pupil premium when they were in Year 11 at school. This includes pupils who had:

  • Been eligible for free school meals at any point in the previous six years
  • Been looked after by their local authority for at least 1 day
  • Left care through adoption, a special guardianship order, or a child arrangements order (previously known as a residence order).

This information comes from local authority records and the School Census. 

Disadvantage Status

The gap between disadvantaged students and non-disadvantaged students sustaining an overall destination was widest 5 years after finishing key stage 4 study. 

Students who were disadvantaged at the end of key stage 4 were 7.6 percentage points less likely to have an overall sustained destination in the year that followed compared to non-disadvantaged students. This was driven by non-disadvantaged students being more likely to sustain an education destination than disadvantaged students. The gap between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged students widened three and five years after finishing key stage 4 (13.8pp and 18.2pp, respectively).

The gap after 5 years had been steadily widening between cohorts: from 16.8 percentage points for the 2012/13 group of leavers to 21.0 percentage points for 2015/16 leavers. While the disadvantage gap has narrowed for 2016/17 leavers (18.2pp), it is important to note that year 5 for the 2015/16 leavers was affected by disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, causing employers and apprenticeship providers to take on fewer individuals. The narrowing of the disadvantage gap for 2016/17 leavers sees the gap broadly return to pre-pandemic levels.

Non-disadvantaged students were more likely to sustain an apprenticeship destination in their first, third and fifth years after finishing key stage 4 study compared to disadvantaged students. 

Disadvantaged students were 1.8 percentage points more likely to sustain an employment destination in the first year after finishing key stage 4. However, non-disadvantaged students were 3.5 percentage points more likely to sustain an employment destination 3 years after finishing key stage 4. Sustained employment destinations were broadly similar in the fifth year, 33.4% and 32.9% for disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged students respectively.

Prior Attainment

Students who achieved 9-4 in English and maths at key stage 4 were more likely to sustain an overall destination than those who did not achieve these grades

2016/17 leavers who achieved 9-4 in English and maths at key stage 4 were 23.3 percentage points more likely to sustain a destination 5 years after finishing key stage 4 than those who did not achieve the grades.

This gap was mainly driven by students with higher prior attainment being more likely to sustain an education destination than those with lower prior attainment. The gap in participation in sustained education between the two groups grew from 16.1 percentage points after 1 year, to 22.3 percentage points  and 40.1 percentage points in years 3 and 5.

Students who did not achieve 9-4 in English and maths were more likely to sustain apprenticeship destinations 1 and 3 years after finishing key stage 4 than those students who did achieve these grades (2.4 percentage points  and 0.5 percentage points gap respectively). Students with higher prior attainment were 1.2 percentage points more likely to sustain an apprenticeship destination 5 years after finishing key stage 4 study than those students with lower prior attainment.

Students who did not achieve 9-4 in English and maths were more likely to sustain employment destinations in each of the measured periods than those who did.

Gender

Female students were more likely to have an overall sustained destination 1, 3 and 5 years after finishing key stage 4 than male students 

Female students were 1.2 percentage points more likely to have an overall sustained destination than male students in the first year after finishing key stage 4. This gap grew to 4.5 percentage points in year 3, then decreased to 3.2pp in year 5. This difference is driven by female students being more likely to sustain an education destination than male students across the three measured time periods.

Male students were more likely than female students to take up apprenticeships. The gap between the proportion of female and male students who sustained an apprenticeship destination widened at 3 years and narrowed slightly 5 years after finishing key stage 4 study. 

Male and female students were similarly likely to be in sustained employment in years 1 and 3 after key stage 4, with close to 1 in 4 being found in work in year 3. However, male students were more likely to sustain employment destinations 5 years after completing KS4 compared to female students.

Special educational needs

Students with special educational needs (SEN) in state-funded mainstream schools were less likely to have a sustained destination 1, 3 and 5 years after completing key stage 4

Students without special educational needs (SEN) were 5.4 percentage points more likely to sustain a destination than students with SEN support one year after completing key stage 4. This gap widens to 12.6 and 17.4 percentage points 3 and 5 years after completing key stage 4, respectively. This is driven by education destinations, with the gap in sustained education destinations increasing from 7.4 percentage points in year 1 to 21.6 percentage points in year 5.

SEN students with an EHC plan or statement were 3.1 percentage points less likely to sustain a destination than students without SEN one year after completing key stage 4. After 3 years, the gap in sustained destinations widened to 10.6 percentage points. This was driven by a 12.6 percentage point gap in employment destinations compared to students without SEN. In year 5, sustained destinations for SEN students with an EHC plan or statement dropped substantially, with the gap widening to 24.3 percentage points in comparison to students without SEN. This is driven by education destinations, with a 25.3 percentage point decrease in education destinations compared to year 3 for SEN students with an EHC plan or statement. 

Ethnicity

Pupils from Indian and Chinese backgrounds were most likely to sustain a destination 1, 3 and 5 years after completing key stage 4

Sustained destinations one year after completing key stage 4 were at 97.5% and 97.8% for students of Indian and Chinese backgrounds, respectively. By the fifth year, sustained destinations for students of Indian and Chinese backgrounds were at 90.2% and 92.2%, respectively. Students of Indian and Chinese backgrounds also had the lowest decline in sustained destinations across 5 years at 7.3 and 5.6 percentage points, respectively.

Students of Gypsy Roma and Traveller of Irish Heritage backgrounds were most likely to sustain an employment destination one year after completing key stage 4 (8.4% and 4.8%, respectively). By year 5, students of White British, and White and Black Caribbean backgrounds were most likely to sustain an employment destination (37.7% and 32.9%, respectively).

Geographical location

Destinations by region

Students from the North East were less likely to have an overall sustained destination 1, 3 and 5 years after key stage 4 study than students from other regions in England

Students from the East of England, South East, South West and Outer London were most likely to sustain an overall destination 1, 3 and 5 years after they finished key stage 4. 

Students from Inner and Outer London were much more likely to sustain an education destination 1, 3 and 5 years after finishing key stage 4 than students from other regions.

A chart is also available below for local authority data. In general, similar trends are seen to those in regional data.

Types of destination

Education destinations

More than half of the students were in a sixth form college or school sixth form a year after finishing key stage 4 study

School sixth forms or sixth form colleges were the most common education destinations one year after finishing key stage 4 (51.2%). An additional 34.6% of students were studying at a further education college and 0.9% were studying at another type of education institution.

Three years after finishing key stage 4 study, the most common education destination was at a UK higher education institution (31.5%). Another 12.9% of students were at further education colleges, 3.6% were at a sixth form college or school sixth form and 0.2% were at another type of education institution.

An even greater proportion of students were studying at UK higher education institutions 5 years after finishing key stage 4 study (41.6%). Only 1.6% were studying at further education colleges at that point.

Apprenticeship destinations

When looking at destinations 1, 3, and 5  years after key stage 4, apprenticeship activity peaks in year 3 when 8.9% of students were on an apprenticeship for at least 6 months of the year.

During the first year after key stage 4 study, 3.0% of students sustained an intermediate apprenticeship destination, while 1.3% sustained an advanced apprenticeship.

Advanced apprenticeships were the most common level of apprenticeship in years 3 and 5 after finishing key stage 4 (4.8% and 3.5%, respectively).

Provider type

The proportion of students staying in sustained destinations varied by provider type. Pupils leaving alternative provision were much less likely to be in a sustained destination 1, 3, and 5 years after key stage 4 compared to mainstream and special schools.

Out of pupils that ended key stage 4 in alternative provision, 58.8% had an overall sustained destination in the following year, compared to 94.2% of state-funded mainstream school leavers. This gap grows wider 3 and 5 years after completing key stage 4. In year 5, 31.9% of alternative provision leavers had any kind of sustained activity, compared to over 82.4% of mainstream school leavers.

The gap between special school leavers and mainstream school leavers grew wider between year 3 and year 5, this is largely driven by a drop in education destinations between year 3 and year 5 for special school leavers .

Later cohorts

This section will focus on students leaving key stage 4 in the academic years 2017/18 and 2018/19. It will focus on their destinations 3 years after finishing key stage 4, as data for destinations 5 years after finishing key stage 4 is not yet available. The data is included to provide a more timely picture of longer term destinations. 

For 2017/18 leavers, the proportion of students who sustained an overall destination 3 years after finishing key stage 4 was 79.7%, down by 2.2 percentage points in comparison to the previous year's cohort. This was followed by a 3.3 percentage points  increase for 2018/19 leavers, with overall sustained destinations at 83.0%.

The proportion of students who sustained an education destination 3 years after finishing key stage 4 was 51.0% for 2017/18 leavers. In contrast to the overall destinations, this saw a 2.8 percentage point increase in comparison to the previous year's cohort. For 2018/19 leavers, 49.4% of students sustained an education destination, down 1.6 percentage points in comparison to the previous year's cohort. 

The proportion of students who sustained an apprenticeship destination 3 years after finishing key stage 4 was 7.0% for 2017/18 leavers, down 1.9 percentage points on the previous year's cohort. For 2018/19 leavers, 7.6% of students sustained an apprenticeship destination in their third year. While this was a 0.6 percentage points rise on the previous year's cohort, this was still below pre-pandemic levels.

21.7% of students sustained an employment destination after finishing key stage 4 in 2017/18. This was a 3.1 percentage point decrease on the previous year's cohort. This was followed by a 4.3 percentage points increase for 2018/19 leavers, seeing employment destinations reach 26.0%.

It is worth noting that both of these cohorts mentioned were affected by disruption caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. For students finishing key stage 4 in 2017/18, the academic year in the third year after finishing (2020/21) saw fewer employers and apprenticeship providers take on individuals. In the following academic year, we see a reverse trend.

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Methodology

Find out how and why we collect, process and publish these statistics.

Official statistics

These are Official Statistics and have been produced in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

This can be broadly interpreted to mean that these statistics are:

  • managed impartially and objectively in the public interest
  • meet identified user needs
  • produced according to sound methods
  • well explained and readily accessible

Find out more about the standards we follow to produce these statistics through our Standards for official statistics published by DfE guidance.

Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).

OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.

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If you have a specific enquiry about Longer term destinations statistics and data:

Destination measures

Email: Destination.MEASURES@education.gov.uk
Contact name: Daniel Brown

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