This section describes the methodology used to derive the estimates set out above in the ‘Estimate of additional number of children claiming a free school meal’ section
The underlying calculation uses three main inputs:
- Estimates from the Department for Work and Pensions Policy Simulation Model (PSM) on the number of children in families receiving Universal Credit in England. The DWP estimates are produced separately for children aged 4-6 and 7-15. The PSM is a static microsimulation model based on a snapshot of the UK population from the Family Resources Survey (FRS), currently for the financial years ending 2020, 2022 and 2023. It uses caseload forecasts alongside benefit rules to simulate results for each year, currently up to and including 2029/30. The latest version of the PSM consistent with Spring Statement 2025 forecasts has been used for these estimates.
- The number of children in receipt of Universal Infant Free School Meals (UIFSM) in Reception to Year 2 excluding those eligible for FSM. These UIFSM figures represent an estimate of the number of infants who will take-up a free school meal. They are based on an estimate of UIFSM pupils who will claim free school meals, which – to avoid double-counting - is adjusted to reflect that some children will become eligible to receive a free meal via the increased FSM offer instead.
- The assumed Free School Meal take-up rate of 89%, i.e. 11% of pupils who are eligible for FSM do not take-up the option of a free meal
Source: Written questions and answers - Written questions, answers and statements - UK Parliament (opens in a new tab)
The methodology simply:
- Aggregates the DWP PSM estimates for 4-6- and 7–15-year-olds (Table 2)
- Adjusts that total to reflect not all children who are eligible for FSM take-up the meal, i.e. only 89% take-up (Table 3)
- Adds on the estimated number of children who receive UIFSM (Table 4)
- Compares the estimates to the 2023/24 baseline where 3.4 million children claimed a free meal (Table 5)
| Table 2: Estimated number of children in households receiving Universal Credit in England by year as forecast by DWP |
|---|
| Academic Year | 23/24 (actual) | 26/27 | 27/28 | 28/29 | 29/30 |
Number of children
aged 4-6 | - | 720,000 | 700,000 | 700,000 | 700,000 |
Number of children
aged 7-15 | - | 2,680,000 | 2,660,000 | 2,680,000 | 2,700,000 |
| Total aged 4-15 | - | 3,400,000 | 3,380,000 | 3,380,000 | 3,400,000 |
| Table 3: Estimated number of children aged 4-15 taking-up Free School Meal |
|---|
| Academic Year | 23/24 (actual) | 26/27 | 27/28 | 28/29 | 29/30 |
Number of children
aged 4-15 | - | 3,040,000 | 3,000,000 | 3,020,000 | 3,040,000 |
| Table 4: Children estimated to be receiving Universal Infant Free School Meals (UIFSM), discounting those eligible for FSM |
|---|
| Academic Year | 23/24 (actual) | 26/27 | 27/28 | 28/29 | 29/30 |
| UIFSM numbers | - | 980,000 | 960,000 | 960,000 | 940,000 |
| Table 5: Estimated number of additional 4-15 year old children claiming a free meal compared to 2023/24 baseline |
|---|
| Academic Year | 23/24 (actual) | 26/27 | 27/28 | 28/29 | 29/30 |
| Claiming a free meal | 3,400,000 | 4,020,000 | 3,960,000 | 3,960,000 | 3,980,000 |
| Difference to 2023/24 | - | 620,000 | 560,000 | 560,000 | 580,000 |
Notes:
- In all the above tables, the estimates have been rounded to the nearest 20,000 so the figures will not sum.