Table 8: Projected long-term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product
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Long-term projections of student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, interest rates, nominal and real terms face value of ICR student loans split by loan product.
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Data set details
- Theme
- Finance and funding
- Publication
- Student loan forecasts for England
- Release
- Financial year 2020-21
- Release type
- Geographic levels
- National
- Indicators
- Cancelled loans (£ billion)
- Capitalised interest (£ billion)
- Interest rates
- Filters
- Loan type
- Plan type of loan
- Time period
- 2020-21 to 2070-71
Data set preview
| plan_type | loan_type | time_period | outlay_£bn | repayments_£bn | capitalised_interest_£bn | cancelled_loans_£bn | outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_£bn | outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_202021_prices_£bn | interest_rates | time_identifier | geographic_level | country_code | country_name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 202021 | ~ | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 38.2 | 38.2 | 1.1 | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 202122 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | ~ | 36.4 | 35.7 | 1.03 | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 202223 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 34.5 | 33.2 | 1.05 | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 202324 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 32.6 | 30.7 | 1.18 | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 202425 | 0 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 30.8 | 28.3 | 1.32 | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
Variables in this data set
| Variable name | Variable description |
|---|---|
| cancelled_loans_£bn | Cancelled loans (£ billion) |
| capitalised_interest_£bn | Capitalised interest (£ billion) |
| interest_rates | Interest rates |
| loan_type | Loan type - Filter by loan type |
| outlay_£bn | Loan outlay (£ billion) |
Footnotes
- Master's loans were introduced in August 2016.
- Doctoral loans were introduced in August 2018.
- Loan cancellations as a result of a borrower reaching the end of their repayment term are recorded as being at the end of the final financial year in which they were liable to make repayments.
- The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education, therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecast from academic year 2020/21 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
- Forecasts up to 2025-26 are consistent with those elsewhere in this publication. Beyond that they have been projected forward using the following assumptions: • Average higher education student loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for RPIX from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook • Average Advanced Learner Loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for CPI from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) March 2021 Economic and Fiscal Outlook • Future entrants are assumed to have the same distribution of characteristics, loan amounts (uprated by RPIX) and earnings (uprated by OBR average earnings growth forecasts) as the 2025/26 entrants in the DfE student loan repayment and Advanced Learner Loans models • Loan borrower entrant numbers vary in line with ONS 2016-based principal population projections, weighted to the age profile of new entrants for each loan product • No changes to student loan policies are assumed, other than annually uprating maximum loan amounts, repayment thresholds and interest thresholds as appropriate
- Values in 2020-21 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
- Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137"
- Plan 2 loans were introduced in place of Plan 1 loans for new entrants to higher education from September 2012. Part-time higher education fee loans were introduced at the same time and part-time maintenance loans were introduced in August 2018.
- Interest rates are presented as weighted averages, where borrowers with larger loan balances have higher weightings. For Plan 2 interest rates may vary between RPI and RPI + 3% depending on income. For Plans 1 and 3 interest rates are not dependent on income.
- Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
- Advanced Learner Loans were introduced for students aged 24+ on some further education courses in August 2013, and extended to students aged 19-23 in August 2016.
- Figures have been rounded to the nearest £0.1 billion.
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