Data set from Local authority school places scorecards

Local authority pupil forecast accuracy - national, local authority

Latest data

Published 25 June 2026

Last updated 25 June 2026

Pupil forecast accuracy for academic year 2025/26

---

On this page

Data set details

• Theme: Pupils and schools
• Publication: Local authority school places scorecards
• Release: Reporting year 2025
• Number of rows: 308
• Geographic levels: Local authority, National
• Indicators:
  • Actual pupil numbers 2025/26
  • One year ahead forecast accuracy percentage
  • SCAP23 forecast pupil numbers on roll 2025/26
• Filters:
  • School phase
• Time period: 2025

---

Data set preview

Table showing first 5 rows, from underlying data

time_period	time_identifier	geographic_level	country_code	country_name	region_code	region_name	old_la_code	new_la_code	la_name	education_phase	actual_pupil_numbers_202526_count	scap23_forecast_pupils_on_roll_202526_count	scap25_forecast_pupils_on_roll_202526_count	three_year_ahead_forecast_accuracy_percentage	one_year_ahead_forecast_accuracy_percentage
2025	Reporting year	National	E92000001	England						Primary	4277093	4356234	4335515	1.85034555	1.365927746
2025	Reporting year	National	E92000001	England						Secondary	3144050	3244044	3185995	3.180420159	1.334107282
2025	Reporting year	Local authority	E92000001	England	E12000004	East Midlands	831	E06000015	Derby	Primary	22938	23468	23294	2.310576336	1.552009765
2025	Reporting year	Local authority	E92000001	England	E12000004	East Midlands	831	E06000015	Derby	Secondary	17568	17821	17826	1.440118397	1.468579235
2025	Reporting year	Local authority	E92000001	England	E12000004	East Midlands	830	E10000007	Derbyshire	Primary	55488	55933	56457	0.801975202	1.746323529

---

Variables in this data set

Table showing first 5 of 6 variables

Variable name	Variable description
actual_pupil_numbers_202526_count	Actual pupil numbers 2025/26
education_phase	School phase
one_year_ahead_forecast_accuracy_percentage	One year ahead forecast accuracy percentage
scap23_forecast_pupils_on_roll_202526_count	SCAP23 forecast pupil numbers on roll 2025/26
scap25_forecast_pupils_on_roll_202526_count	SCAP25 forecast pupil numbers on roll 2025/26

---

Footnotes

1. z indicates data is not applicable
2. x indicates data is not available
3. LOW indicates sample size is too low to calculate forecast accuracy

---

Using this data

• Download the underlying data as a compressed ZIP file

• View or create your own tables

  View tables that we have built for you, or create your own tables from open data using our table tool

Download this data using code

Access this data using common programming languages using the URL below.

Example code

---

Contact us

If you have a specific enquiry about Local authority pupil forecast accuracy - national, local authority statistics and data:

Pupil Place Planning team

Email: SCAP.PPP@education.gov.uk
Contact name: Josie Brett

---