Table 8: Projected long-term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product
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Long-term projections of student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal and real terms face value of ICR student loans split by loan product.
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Data set details
- Theme
- Finance and funding
- Publication
- Student loan forecasts for England
- Release
- Financial year 2022-23
- Release type
- Geographic levels
- National
- Indicators
- Cancelled loans (£ billion)
- Capitalised interest (£ billion)
- Loan outlay (£ billion)
- Filters
- Loan type
- Plan type of loan
- Time period
- 2022-23 to 2071-72
Data set preview
| plan_type | loan_type | time_period | outlay_£bn | repayments_£bn | capitalised_interest_£bn | cancelled_loans_£bn | outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_£bn | outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_202223_prices_£bn | time_identifier | geographic_level | country_code | country_name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 202223 | low | 1.9 | 1.1 | low | 34.6 | 34.6 | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 202324 | z | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 33.8 | 29.7 | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 202425 | z | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 33.5 | 28.8 | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 202526 | z | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 33.4 | 28.4 | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 202627 | z | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 32.5 | 27.3 | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
Variables in this data set
| Variable name | Variable description |
|---|---|
| cancelled_loans_£bn | Cancelled loans (£ billion) |
| capitalised_interest_£bn | Capitalised interest (£ billion) |
| loan_type | Loan type - Filter by loan type |
| outlay_£bn | Loan outlay (£ billion) |
| outstanding_balance_at_start_of_financial_year_£bn | Outstanding loan balance at the start of financial year (£ billion) |
Footnotes
- Coverage: Borrowers who received loans as English domiciled students studying in the UK or as EU domiciled students studying in England.
- Where you see the symbol 'z' this refers to not applicable.
- Where you see ‘low’ this refers to figures which round to 0, but are not 0.
- The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education; therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecasted in financial year 2023-24 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, for example, if they had suspended their studies.
- Values in 2022-23 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
- Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137
- A summary timeline of introduction of different plan types is available in table 1.1 in the Methodology. https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england-methodology
- Loan cancellations as a result of a borrower reaching the end of their repayment term are recorded as being at the start of the first financial year in which they were no longer liable to make repayments.
- Forecasts up to 2027-28 are consistent with those elsewhere in this publication. Beyond that they have been projected forward using the following assumptions: • Average higher education student loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for RPIX from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report • Average Advanced Learner Loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) July 2022 Fiscal risks and sustainability report • Future entrants are assumed to have the same distribution of characteristics, loan amounts (uprated by RPIX) and earnings (uprated by OBR average earnings growth forecasts) as the 2027/28 entrants in the DfE student loan repayment and Advanced Learner Loans models • Loan borrower entrant numbers vary in line with ONS 2018-based principal population projections, weighted to the age profile of new entrants for each loan product • No changes to student loan policies are assumed past 2027-28, other than annually uprating maximum loan amounts, repayment thresholds and interest thresholds as appropriate
- Figures have been rounded to the nearest £0.1 billion.
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