Data set from Student loan forecasts for England

Projected long-term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product

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Data set details

Theme
Finance and funding
Publication
Student loan forecasts for England
Release type
Geographic levels
National
Indicators
  • £ Billion
  • Interest rate of the loan book
Filters
  • Loan type
  • Payment type
  • Plan type of loan
Time period
2019-20 to 2069-70

Data set preview

Table showing first 5 rows, from underlying data
payment_typeplan_typeloan_typetime_periodGBPbillioninterest_ratetime_identifiergeographic_levelcountry_codecountry_name
OutlayPlan 1Plan 1 loans201920 0.0NAFinancial yearNationalE92000001England
OutlayPlan 2Plan 2 Total201920 16.9NAFinancial yearNationalE92000001England
OutlayPlan 2Higher education full time loans201920 16.4NAFinancial yearNationalE92000001England
OutlayPlan 2Higher education part time loans201920 0.3NAFinancial yearNationalE92000001England
OutlayPlan 2Advanced Learner Loans201920 0.2NAFinancial yearNationalE92000001England

Variables in this data set

Table showing all 5 variables
Variable nameVariable description
GBPbillion£ Billion
interest_rateInterest rate of the loan book
loan_typeLoan type - Filter by loan type
payment_typePayment type - Filter by payment type
plan_typePlan type of loan - Filter by plan type

Footnotes

  1. Interest rates are presented as weighted averages, where borrowers with larger loan balances have higher weightings. For Plan 2 interest rates may vary between RPI and RPI + 3% depending on income. For Plans 1 and 3 interest rates are not dependent on income.
  2. The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education, therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecast from academic year 2019/20 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
  3. Figures have been rounded to the nearest £0.1 billion.
  4. Forecasts up to 2024-25 are consistent with those elsewhere in this publication. Beyond that they have been projected forward using the following assumptions: Average higher education student loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for RPIX from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) March 2020 Economic and Fiscal Outlook; Average Advanced Learner Loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for CPI from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) March 2020 Economic and Fiscal Outlook; Loan borrower entrant numbers vary in line with ONS 2016-based principal population projections, weighted to the age profile of new entrants for each loan product; Future entrants are assumed to have the same distribution of characteristics, loan amounts (uprated by RPIX) and earnings (uprated by OBR average earnings growth forecasts) as the 2024/25 entrants in the DfE student loan repayment and Advanced Learner Loans models; No changes to student loan policies are assumed, other than annually uprating maximum loan amounts, repayment thresholds and interest thresholds as appropriate.
  5. Loan cancellations as a result of a borrower reaching the end of their repayment term are recorded as being at the end of the final financial year in which they were liable to make repayments.
  6. Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137
  7. Values in 2019-20 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.

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