Projected long-term student loan outlay, repayments, capitalised interest, cancelled loans, nominal face value and real terms face value of ICR student loans, by loan product
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Data set details
- Theme
- Finance and funding
- Publication
- Student loan forecasts for England
- Release
- Financial year 2019-20
- Release type
- Geographic levels
- National
- Indicators
- £ Billion
- Interest rate of the loan book
- Filters
- Loan type
- Payment type
- Plan type of loan
- Time period
- 2019-20 to 2069-70
Data set preview
| payment_type | plan_type | loan_type | time_period | GBPbillion | interest_rate | time_identifier | geographic_level | country_code | country_name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outlay | Plan 1 | Plan 1 loans | 201920 | 0.0 | NA | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Outlay | Plan 2 | Plan 2 Total | 201920 | 16.9 | NA | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Outlay | Plan 2 | Higher education full time loans | 201920 | 16.4 | NA | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Outlay | Plan 2 | Higher education part time loans | 201920 | 0.3 | NA | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
| Outlay | Plan 2 | Advanced Learner Loans | 201920 | 0.2 | NA | Financial year | National | E92000001 | England |
Variables in this data set
| Variable name | Variable description |
|---|---|
| GBPbillion | £ Billion |
| interest_rate | Interest rate of the loan book |
| loan_type | Loan type - Filter by loan type |
| payment_type | Payment type - Filter by payment type |
| plan_type | Plan type of loan - Filter by plan type |
Footnotes
- Interest rates are presented as weighted averages, where borrowers with larger loan balances have higher weightings. For Plan 2 interest rates may vary between RPI and RPI + 3% depending on income. For Plans 1 and 3 interest rates are not dependent on income.
- The outlay model only forecasts students as receiving loans up to six years after they entered higher education, therefore no Plan 1 outlay is forecast from academic year 2019/20 onwards. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studies.
- Figures have been rounded to the nearest £0.1 billion.
- Forecasts up to 2024-25 are consistent with those elsewhere in this publication. Beyond that they have been projected forward using the following assumptions: Average higher education student loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for RPIX from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) March 2020 Economic and Fiscal Outlook; Average Advanced Learner Loan outlay per borrower increases each year in line with forecasts for CPI from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) March 2020 Economic and Fiscal Outlook; Loan borrower entrant numbers vary in line with ONS 2016-based principal population projections, weighted to the age profile of new entrants for each loan product; Future entrants are assumed to have the same distribution of characteristics, loan amounts (uprated by RPIX) and earnings (uprated by OBR average earnings growth forecasts) as the 2024/25 entrants in the DfE student loan repayment and Advanced Learner Loans models; No changes to student loan policies are assumed, other than annually uprating maximum loan amounts, repayment thresholds and interest thresholds as appropriate.
- Loan cancellations as a result of a borrower reaching the end of their repayment term are recorded as being at the end of the final financial year in which they were liable to make repayments.
- Plan 1 loans include unsold, retained and loans sold at both sale 1 and sale 2. For more information on the loan sales, go to: Sale 1: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2017-12-06/HCWS317 Sale 2: https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-statement/Commons/2018-12-04/HCWS1137
- Values in 2019-20 prices have been calculated using OBR forecasts for RPI.
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